Not sure what "raw numbers" you are looking at but at the referenced CDC site, there are downloadable spreadsheets with the numbers that underly the chart. There are two values for each combination of parameters (date, age group, cause of death, etc),"predicted" (modeled) and "observed" (raw numbers).It looks to me like that is based on a "model." Here is their jiberish: "Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). A range of values for the number of excess deaths was calculated as the difference between the observed count and one of two thresholds (either the average expected count or the upper bound of the 95% prediction interval), by week and jurisdiction."
However, if you look at raw numbers, about 2.8 million people die per year. We are on that exact pace, which would indicate the idea of "excess" death is a mirage.
Comparison of total observed deaths per week through September:
261K deaths total have already been recorded. Given the time lag in tabulating the data, we are probably already past that as of now. Using the average number of deaths per week from the past two years to extrapolate forward yields 314K deaths, so the end result will likely be much higher than that.
To an earlier point, here are the number of deaths from heart disease per week through September. It's actually higher this year than previous years: