Face Shields..

[Woody]

Dude, do you realize that as a percentage of the population that is almost exactly the same level of testing?

Not quite....the USA is testing at a rate 1.65 times yours. CA 105,818 tests/million. USA 174,588 tests/million.

 

[Creekwood]

Not quite....the USA is testing at a rate 1.65 times yours. CA 105,818 tests/million. USA 174,588 tests/million.

The reason there are more tests needed in the US is because there are more people getting sick and getting tested. Or are people in the US just getting a test "just in case"? Canada is testing every person that has symptoms that "might" be COVID and in the case of actual cases, those that have come in contact with those people. Is the US doing something different?

The simple fact is that COVID is still active and growing in the US at a much higher level than Canada. Talk all you want and try to explain that all the statistics are wrong, and it doesn't change what is happening. People are debating whether death rates are real or whether hospitalization rates are overstated, and implying people are getting duped by hospitals into being admitted even though they are not sick. Do people honestly think that people would voluntarily be hospitalized in the US system if they were really not sick at all? I think Americans are smarter than that.

 

[Golfman25]

The reason there are more tests needed in the US is because there are more people getting sick and getting tested. Or are people in the US just getting a test "just in case"? Canada is testing every person that has symptoms that "might" be COVID and in the case of actual cases, those that have come in contact with those people. Is the US doing something different?

The simple fact is that COVID is still active and growing in the US at a much higher level than Canada. Talk all you want and try to explain that all the statistics are wrong, and it doesn't change what is happening. People are debating whether death rates are real or whether hospitalization rates are overstated, and implying people are getting duped by hospitals into being admitted even though they are not sick. Do people honestly think that people would voluntarily be hospitalized in the US system if they were really not sick at all? I think Americans are smarter than that.

The US is testing anyone who farts. Kid is going back to school in a few weeks. They are requiring him to get a test 10 days prior to his arrival and then will test him again once he arrives. Multiply that times how many colleges are out there.

Now we don't really know if Covid is still "active and growing" in the US. They are not reporting asymptomatic positive tests. We don't really know if asymptomatic people are a true problem -- are they really big spreaders. We would be better off knowing how many people are actually sick or not.

 

[Golfman25]

I agree Obama was not effective. Highly principled, but ineffective. Obamacare was an attempt at finding heath care reform without going to a government run system like the UK, Canada, Australia etc. Problem is you have ended up with the worst of both systems, not the best. Personally I think a hybrid is impossible. You either revert to the old system or start over. Canada did it a long time ago when the world was a simpler place and big pharma did not exist. Its a MUCH bigger issue now.

I agree that running health care as a business introduces a profit maximization element that is not good. Hospitals motivated to run up huge bills, insurance companies motivated to deny coverage to pay for those bills, and the American citizens helplessly caught in the middle, but ultimately paying the entire cost through insurance. Well run governments can do a better job, but "well run government" is an oxymoron. We have an interesting model in Ontario. The lefts don't like it, but I think it makes sense. Hospitals (government owned and run)are incented with funding for expansion or new equipment based on a number of metrics that they are evaluated on. Some of the metrics are offsetting. Like emergency room flow, cost reduction, patient satisfaction, emergency waits, surgery waits. I don't know them all, but they work to ensure funding goes to hospitals that are well run and are in areas that have growing needs (high growth areas). Its not perfect but the province can tweak the metrics to "guide the ship".

Sorry guys, but there is nothing wrong with profits in healthcare. You want to reduce healthcare profits and costs, then make it uber competitive. The more competition, the lower the pricing. Then take the lawyers out of the malpractice business.

 

[Woody]

The reason there are more tests needed in the US is because there are more people getting sick and getting tested. Or are people in the US just getting a test "just in case"? Canada is testing every person that has symptoms that "might" be COVID and in the case of actual cases, those that have come in contact with those people. Is the US doing something different?

The simple fact is that COVID is still active and growing in the US at a much higher level than Canada. Talk all you want and try to explain that all the statistics are wrong, and it doesn't change what is happening. People are debating whether death rates are real or whether hospitalization rates are overstated, and implying people are getting duped by hospitals into being admitted even though they are not sick. Do people honestly think that people would voluntarily be hospitalized in the US system if they were really not sick at all? I think Americans are smarter than that.

I'm certainly not claiming all the stats are wrong...and here are some I posted a couple days ago when you said the virus was growing at a much higher rate here than in Canada

New case charts for Canada and USA. I grabbed the 7 day moving average on 6/28 and 7/27 for each country. Canada 274 up to 497 = 81% increase, USA 40,563 up to 67,426 = 66% increase

 

[OllieC]

This explains a lot. But not the way you think it does.

mmkay.....

 

[Woody]

The reason there are more tests needed in the US is because there are more people getting sick and getting tested. Or are people in the US just getting a test "just in case"? Canada is testing every person that has symptoms that "might" be COVID and in the case of actual cases, those that have come in contact with those people. Is the US doing something different?

The simple fact is that COVID is still active and growing in the US at a much higher level than Canada. Talk all you want and try to explain that all the statistics are wrong, and it doesn't change what is happening. People are debating whether death rates are real or whether hospitalization rates are overstated, and implying people are getting duped by hospitals into being admitted even though they are not sick. Do people honestly think that people would voluntarily be hospitalized in the US system if they were really not sick at all? I think Americans are smarter than that.

No that's not the reason at this point. We're doing now 800-900K tests a day. The point being that we can identify the asymptomatic and quarantine and/or track contacts and get ahead of the spread.

No, it is not just sick people getting tested. I could have been tested if I wanted right here in our little town in the boonies of N. Wisconsin, but I've been careful with making contact, feel well, and thought I would be a wasting a test. I haven't seen any one post here that was implying people are being admitted to hospitals 'even though they are not sick', could you point one of those out?

 

[skibum]

You don't seem to believe that I an a die hard conservative (Canadian style, not Tea Party). Less government, less tax, basic level of support for those that need it, but not for those that don't.

Uh... If this really is when you believe, then you really would have been right at home and in good company in the Tea Party.

Double whammy, this is a also good description of President Trump's postions.

 

[Woody]

Why are we comparing the US to Canada...two totally different demographics including population density

Exactly, how each country keeps track varies, often same terms but definitions differ. Look at Canada, they changed the definition of Active Cases and erased about 25,000 of them. They're coming back already, maybe in a month they'll modify the definition again. Here's an example SteveS put together

Here is a little spreadsheet that I put together and update occasionally - it is current as of today. Denmark and the UK have more tests. What gets me is these countries in Europe have almost as many deaths with about 1/4 of the cases. The countries were picked simply by being a block and having the total population similar to the US.

-Steve

Makes me wonder about the quality of health care in Europe. Well, I'll question the quality in Canada too, 7.7% of their Covid cases end up dead, in the USA only 3.3% of our cases end up horizontal. Hmmm, free healthcare?

I look at things like this map, inside the box I drew is about 50-60million people, that's a Canada + a bunch all inside it. There has to be many contributing factors to why about half our 150K deaths happened right there. How badly seeded to start with.

 

[skibum]

View attachment 89405

And his brother...

 

[skibum]

You have the most free country in the world and the election of a democratic president is going to justify one group of citizens to use armed force to enforce its will against the other citizens? Horrifying way of thinking.

You've got this reversed 100%

Nobody in here talking about having their guns locked and loaded is going to do anything to anybody to enforce our will. There will be no problems unless someone else takes advantage of the current situation (politicians telling the police to stand down) to attempt to enforce their will on us. My hardware has been collecting dust for years, and it will stay that way unless someone else's actions force me to change that. We are the most free because we defend our freedom to the end. Family, freedom, country first. Everything else later.

God made all men. Colt made them equal.

Sorry guys, but there is nothing wrong with profits in healthcare. You want to reduce healthcare profits and costs, then make it uber competitive. The more competition, the lower the pricing. Then take the lawyers out of the malpractice business.

Agreed. The other government mechanism that causes problems is the tax code racket. If I go into the hospital and have a (example) hernia surgery, and I have healthcare, the hospital will charge me the full price for that surgery, say $20k. Then, they will mark up a "discount" of say $5K or so because they already have agreed with the insurance company that the cost (not price) for hernia surgery for their customers is $15K so that's what we (the insurance company + my deductible) pay. At tax time, the hospital (and Dr, and labs, and the pharmacy) write off that $5k "loss" on their taxes. Uninsured people (who can prove that they can't pay the $20k) end up paying about $10k with the $10k discount again written off on their taxes (deducted from the profits, so a reduction in tax paid). In reality, $10k is really the price for the surgery. Their profits come from the $5k "extra" that they made from my surgery plus the amount of tax reduction that they got from the $15k they wrote off between the 2 surgeries. The 2nd scam that raises prices is between the lawyers and insurance companies. A Dr pays as much if not more for liability insurance than they do for rent and equipment for their office. Someone else can elaborate on that one.

 

[Cap'n Scuba Steve]

You are absolutely correct about medical malpractice, and your description above drove home what I was really getting at in terms of healthcare profits. The way it's set up is a scam. There is nothing wrong with people in healthcare making money, same as any other profession. It's how insurance and healthcare companies go about it that is complete garbage.

A recent American Medical Association report indicated that obstetricians pay $150k annually on average in malpractice premiums. The worst I saw was in the Long Island, NY area - $215k annually for an OB/GYN. That's just an absurd amount of money and these doctors have no choice but to pay it. Otherwise, they risk everything that they've worked for. While overall number of claims has gone down in the US over the last 30 years, the number of claims (and paid claims) over $500k has been on a steady increase. So if a group of 4 doctors have a private OB/GYN clinic on Long Island, they already start off $1M in the red just for malpractice insurance. This causes far more bloat in our healthcare costs than most realize.

 

[alnav]

Exactly, how each country keeps track varies, often same terms but definitions differ. Look at Canada, they changed the definition of Active Cases and erased about 25,000 of them. They're coming back already, maybe in a month they'll modify the definition again. Here's an example SteveS put together

Here is a little spreadsheet that I put together and update occasionally - it is current as of today. Denmark and the UK have more tests. What gets me is these countries in Europe have almost as many deaths with about 1/4 of the cases. The countries were picked simply by being a block and having the total population similar to the US.

-Steve

Makes me wonder about the quality of health care in Europe. Well, I'll question the quality in Canada too, 7.7% of their Covid cases end up dead, in the USA only 3.3% of our cases end up horizontal. Hmmm, free healthcare?

I look at things like this map, inside the box I drew is about 50-60million people, that's a Canada + a bunch all inside it. There has to be many contributing factors to why about half our 150K deaths happened right there. How badly seeded to start with.
View attachment 89452

Good info. I think it's also useful to look at the data over time. Here's a chart showing deaths per capita as they accumulated over time compared to the US, Canada, some of the same countries in your spreadsheet, plus the EU which is roughly the same grouping as your comparison group. The bottom scale starts with the date when the number of deaths reached 3 per million, so, for example, Italy is about two weeks ahead of the US and Canada is behind.

I think the differences at the beginning of the outbreak have largely to do with the timing as well as policies adopted. Italy was hit the hardest early so had no benefit from the lessons learned elsewhere and took a while to figure out the right lockdown policies. The UK is said to have waited too long to lock down. Canada had the most time but also benefited from its geographic spread as well as its health system.
Germany is in a class of its own with both a strong health system as well as aggressive public health policies, despite having a concentrated population and a federal system much like the US.
The US, according to this data, fared almost exactly the same as the overall EU for the first month and a half. As the EU overall leveled off, we continued to climb a little for a couple of months but have started to diverge bigly for the past few weeks. If this trend continues, and it probably will at least for a while because deaths tend to lag cases and only recede slowly, we might pass Italy and the UK at some point in the near future in terms of deaths per capita.

 

[Golfman25]

Good info. I think it's also useful to look at the data over time. Here's a chart showing deaths per capita as they accumulated over time compared to the US, Canada, some of the same countries in your spreadsheet, plus the EU which is roughly the same grouping as your comparison group. The bottom scale starts with the date when the number of deaths reached 3 per million, so, for example, Italy is about two weeks ahead of the US and Canada is behind.
View attachment 89456
I think the differences at the beginning of the outbreak have largely to do with the timing as well as policies adopted. Italy was hit the hardest early so had no benefit from the lessons learned elsewhere and took a while to figure out the right lockdown policies. The UK is said to have waited too long to lock down. Canada had the most time but also benefited from its geographic spread as well as its health system.
Germany is in a class of its own with both a strong health system as well as aggressive public health policies, despite having a concentrated population and a federal system much like the US.
The US, according to this data, fared almost exactly the same as the overall EU for the first month and a half. As the EU overall leveled off, we continued to climb a little for a couple of months but have started to diverge bigly for the past few weeks. If this trend continues, and it probably will at least for a while because deaths tend to lag cases and only recede slowly, we might pass Italy and the UK at some point in the near future in terms of deaths per capita.

What would the US look like if Cuomo and other govs didn't seed the old folks homes?

 

[Golfman25]

You've got this reversed 100%

Agreed. The other government mechanism that causes problems is the tax code racket. If I go into the hospital and have a (example) hernia surgery, and I have healthcare, the hospital will charge me the full price for that surgery, say $20k. Then, they will mark up a "discount" of say $5K or so because they already have agreed with the insurance company that the cost (not price) for hernia surgery for their customers is $15K so that's what we (the insurance company + my deductible) pay. At tax time, the hospital (and Dr, and labs, and the pharmacy) write off that $5k "loss" on their taxes. Uninsured people (who can prove that they can't pay the $20k) end up paying about $10k with the $10k discount again written off on their taxes (deducted from the profits, so a reduction in tax paid). In reality, $10k is really the price for the surgery. Their profits come from the $5k "extra" that they made from my surgery plus the amount of tax reduction that they got from the $15k they wrote off between the 2 surgeries. The 2nd scam that raises prices is between the lawyers and insurance companies. A Dr pays as much if not more for liability insurance than they do for rent and equipment for their office. Someone else can elaborate on that one.

Do you have a source for your tax code racket? Normally you don't get a tax break for a price discount, so it would have to be a special tax provision. Never heard of it before.

 

[Creekwood]

Uh... If this really is when you believe, then you really would have been right at home and in good company in the Tea Party.

Double whammy, this is a also good description of President Trump's postions.

No, not Tea Party level of conservative. Although some of my Liberal friends (the actual name of the party, not the hijacked insult that the term has with conservatives in the US) might agree with you. But they are Canadians so the line between left and right is not where you would draw it.

Our national sport is hockey, and there is a very high percentage of Canadian hockey players shoot left handed as compared to Americans. Hmmmmm. I shoot left in hockey but right in every other thing in life. Hmmmm. Maybe there is some genetic link between how you hold a hockey stick and political views.

 

[skibum]

Our national sport is hockey, and there is a very high percentage of Canadian hockey players shoot left handed as compared to Americans. Hmmmmm. I shoot left in hockey but right in every other thing in life. Hmmmm. Maybe there is some genetic link between how you hold a hockey stick and political views.

I LOVE hockey. And you'll be happy to know that I stand quietly with my hat off while they play your national anthem.

 

[skibum]

Do you have a source for your tax code racket? Normally you don't get a tax break for a price discount, so it would have to be a special tax provision. Never heard of it before.

My cousin Jackie who is a CPA for a world famous hospital very close to where I live. I asked her how they could sustain the business after dropping the prices so much from the initial price after I had some questions about the bill for my hernia surgery. Maybe I got the details a little wrong, but she assured me that the initial inflated price that I didn't pay was there just for that reason. I put discount in quotes because it is coded as something that indicates it was somehow a loss of revenue. She finished the conversation saying "The whole thing is a sham, and I could tell you about things that would make your head spin.". I asked her how her brother was instead since I hit my out of pocket maximum for the year and the insurance company took care of the rest. Thank God for my HSA that I make regular contributions to.

 

[alnav]

What would the US look like if Cuomo and other govs didn't seed the old folks homes?

If all 6000 New York nursing home deaths were caused by "seeding" (which no one has alleged), there would be about 18 fewer deaths per million. You wouldn't be able to see the difference on the chart.

 

[alnav]

My cousin Jackie who is a CPA for a world famous hospital very close to where I live. Maybe I got the details wrong, but she assured me that the initial inflated price that I didn't pay was just there for that reason.

FWIW, I guess it's little-known that Obamacare imposes a limit on insurance company profits. In a nutshell, insurance company payouts for care must be at least 80% of revenues. All other costs (overhead, sales, G&A) plus profit is limited to 20%, which is a pretty crappy gross margin. If they go over, they have to pay back the overage to served companies out of what would have been profit. Every year since Obamacare started, I've gotten fairly fat checks from my insurance provider I have to use to benefit employees; I do that by reducing the share they pay which increases their net pay. It has gone down as the companies adjust to the rule but rates have stabilized as well. No telling what will happen this year but I'm hearing premiums will go down from my broker.