Yikes.......$104 a Barrel !!!!!

Discussion in 'The Tiki Bar' started by Dave S, Mar 5, 2008.

  1. Bottom Line

    Bottom Line Active Member

    Oct 6, 2006
    Table Rock Lake(Branson MO)
    2003 360 Sundancer
    2002 Sea Doo GTI
    Twin Mercruiser 8.1L
    Westerbeke Generator
    Chuck...I can't figure that out....same thing in Missouri....a couple of weeks ago, gas was selling for 1.37....now around 1.72:smt101:smt101
  2. fwebster

    fwebster Well-Known Member TECHNICAL Contributor PLATINUM Sponsor

    Oct 6, 2006
    Middle Tennessee ; Panama City Beach, FL
    1996 450DA
    3116 Caterpillars
    The price increase was driven by fears that the oil producing Arabs will get drawn into the Israel/Gaza conflict. In the final analysis, oil is a comodity that is governed by supply/demand ecomonics, so we can probably expect gas prices to decrease pretty quickly.

    Wait until next week to fill up................
  3. gerryb

    gerryb Well-Known Member TECHNICAL Contributor

    Oct 12, 2006
    Somers Point, NJ
    "On Vacation"
    2006 40 Sundancer
    Raymarine E125 & HD Radar + Garmin 5208
    QSB5.9 380 Cummins
    Same here in the Philly area... $1.50 a month ago, $1.70 now..?
  4. Nehalennia

    Nehalennia Well-Known Member

    Aug 22, 2007
    Marysville, WA
    2001 310DA twin 350 MAGs, Westerbeke 4.5KW
    Twin 350 MAG V-drives
    It's gone up around here to $2.03/gal for regular gas at the pump.
  5. chuck1

    chuck1 Super Moderator TECHNICAL Contributor PLATINUM Sponsor

    Oct 3, 2006
    North GA Mountains
    Looking For Next One
    Looking For Next One
    Good one Frank. Growing up I was always told never fill up when the truck is unload the gas, now it seems that everybody fills up when the truck comes. Go figure???? With my luck if I wait until next week it will go up again.(Grin)
  6. sbw1

    sbw1 Well-Known Member

    Oct 10, 2006
    West Michigan
    This is listed in my signature
    This is listed in my signature
    I read somewhere that refinery maintenance occurs this time of year and conversion to home heating oil takes a toll as well. Geopolitics of course as others have commented. Our buddy Hugo is sucking up to western oil companies again because his infastructure is failing and with prices and production dropping he is having a hard time funding his "causes". Apparently he has proposed opening up new oil fields if the companies will help him out. Maybe he will be overthrown?
  7. David Paul

    David Paul New Member

    Dec 19, 2008
    South Eastern US
  8. comsnark

    comsnark New Member

    Apr 10, 2007
    NJ Shore
    SeaRay SunSport
    Ha ha ha ha. Indeed.

    With the benefit of hindsight, do we really think *domestic consumer demand of gasoline* is driving oil prices? I suspect not. I suspect that

    1) Pop of the Oil bubble (i.e. speculators not buying!)
    2) U.S. Recession
    a) Drop in air travel
    b) Drop in commercial gasoline demand (ie less trucks)
    3) Global Recession
    a) Drop in China oil demand
    4) Lack of restraint in supply (i.e. opec not cutting back inspite of weak demand)

    . . . .has a much bigger impact.

    I will not predict where oil (or gas) will be priced in six months. Could be $30. Could be $20. Could be $200.
    The "game" just smells rigged at this point.

    BTW: I am not going with "Refineries have turnarounds". A refinery in turnaround would mean a shortage of gasoline (gas price goes up) while you have a surplus of unprocessed of oil (Oil price goes down). That is not what we are seeing.

    I can tell you that (generally speaking) all the refinery investment for future production, efficiency improvements, and capacity upgrades have disappeared. Oh sure. . we will see the benefits for a few years, because three year projects that are more than a year underway will be completed. . but anything slated for completion after 2011 (generally speaking) ain't happening.

    This could be a good discussion.
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2009
  9. Four Suns

    Four Suns Head Pot Stirrer TECHNICAL Contributor

    Oct 4, 2006
    Williamsburg, VA
    2003 480 DB
    Zodiac ProJet Dinghy
    Yamaha 110vx WaveRunner
    QSM-11 Diesels
    Demand is, in fact, way down. 3M+ people are no longer driving to work... At least that's what they've been saying on CNBC. Apparently, there are running out of places to store the oil that is getting delivered now...
  10. comsnark

    comsnark New Member

    Apr 10, 2007
    NJ Shore
    SeaRay SunSport
    "That's what they are saying on CNBC". Interesting Caveat. I respect that . . .can we truely trust statements on TV?

    I did a fast, non-comprehensive google search and found this . . http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html

    The intersting number is at the bottom of the page: Four week average demand for gasoline: 8.93MMB/D. Year ago: 9.288MMB/D.

    That is just shy of a 4% change.

    Hmmmm. . . .
  11. Four Suns

    Four Suns Head Pot Stirrer TECHNICAL Contributor

    Oct 4, 2006
    Williamsburg, VA
    2003 480 DB
    Zodiac ProJet Dinghy
    Yamaha 110vx WaveRunner
    QSM-11 Diesels
    And a 4% change is a big number from all the pundits say (I had heard 3% actually)... if you believe the vomit spewing out of their mouths....
  12. VTSeaRay

    VTSeaRay Active Member

    Feb 19, 2008
    Northern Vermont / SW FL
    2007 210 Select w/5.0L 260HP MPI Mercruiser Alpha 1
    8 cyl 5.0 Merc mpi, w/alpha 1 with 19" prop, with the speedo hole on the leading edge just above it
    Well, I hate to say it, but there have been almost that many people that have lost jobs in the past few months, so they aren't driving to work anymore. The price last summer made many people stop and rethink how they get around, and I think a lot have gone to mass transit options or less travel altogether.

  13. jitts3

    jitts3 New Member

    Dec 16, 2008
    Monroe Twp. NJ & Fon Du Lac, WI
    1973 SRV 240 and 1978 SRV 200
    73" 307 CID Chevy OMC Stringer, electric shift. 78" 350 Mercruiser
    Some folks got rid of "gas guzzlers" for hybrids. Now they pay gmac a small fortune and not the Gas pumps. No change there. except gmac is a nut you mush crack every month, no matter what. the pump you just drove less is you couldn't afford it. Soon you see those goofy hybreds going repo. But that fact will be hiden by the treehuggers.
    As for mass transit. That never existed in this country in any real form. Just big cities, but thats fine by me. Mass transit is not and never will be the American way. I chose not to hang with the dregs. Have you seen the inside of a greyhound? Not for me or most other people for that matter. You couldn't drag me on one.
    As for the ecomomy. Everything we own was ondce on a diesel truck. They allowed and still diesel to be more expensive then gas. Then Diesel hit almost $5.00 a gal. We all (truckers) had to cover the added fuel expence. Those of you with diesel boats can understand what that was like. To fill this Peterbilt used to cost me about $400. Then it cost me $1,100 for the same amount of fuel. A full tank gets me 1,300 miles or so. My average haul from Wi to NJ cost me an evtra $500 per trip. We all charge and still charge (though not as much) fuel surcharge. This cost gets passed down to you and I as consumers. How do you think fresh produce gets to where you shop...Guys like me that got killed at the pump. Meanwhile the media focused on airlines and fuel costs. Nobody NEEDS to fly but we sure as hell need to eat. Food costs jumped up and nobody knew why? The experts forgot about the forgotten ones who day in and day out take care of everything that needs move from there to here. Truckers.
    Now fuel is back down and the extra cost of everything that is hauled in a truck (EVERYTHING) has taken away most peoples discretionary money. Now they don't spend. On and on the cycle goes.
    Then you had the folks in the intrest only morgages "gamblers". The govt handed out krugerrands in 55 gal drums to bail out these gamblers while important buisness went under. Why not bail out everybody that lost their shirt in Vegas!!!
    Now I sit in GA for now the 2nd day trying to find freight to haul loosing money. Freight volume speaks for the American Economy, we move it! Its getting bad out here guys.
    And now Obama wants to help our economy by reinvesting in infrastructor, built by contractors with "undocumented Mexicans!" Thats sure to help us out....NOT

    Sorry about the rant. But its getting bad.
  14. Pseudomind

    Pseudomind Active Member

    Jul 1, 2008
    Jacksonville, FL
    2011 Hurricane with Magic Tilt Trailer
    115 HP Yamaha Four Stroke
    I am not saying yes or no regarding this article, but I do believe speculation had much to do with the prices increasing so quickly. :huh:

    For one thing I am not a big fan of CBS, when it comes to their objectivity in reporting. For that matter is there any objectivity in news casters of any source, any more?

    Read the article

    I just want to know this? When prices were so high, most of my bills went up supposedly due to the increase costs of oil. Now the prices have gone down...but my bills did not reflect the decrease in fuel costs...so when fuel prices go back up?

    Will I also receive notices that my bills will be increased due to rising fuel costs? Rhetorical question, do not bother to answer.

  15. fc3

    fc3 Just another eclectic geek TECHNICAL Contributor

    Nov 12, 2006
    Northern NJ
    1999 Sea Ray 330DA
    Twin 7.4 MPI (310 propshaft HP) V-drives
    Twin Mercury Marine marinized 7.4L L-29 V8s
    Cast iron block w 4-bolt mains

    Well well well. Nearly a year later and where are we? Yup, those speculators all lost their shirts. Demand fell, the price fell, and those idiots had billions of barrels of oil being delivered where they paid over $100/bbl when the market is paying only $40. So what happened? Some, like Lehman are gone. Lehman? Lehman? Are you there? No? Goldman had their hands out for a federal bailout. First they rape us with their commodity pricing, then they rape up again for a bail out. Must be nice to own a bunch of efing congressmen and senators.

    Then we had the Sarbanes Oxley effect. The banks and investment houses that bought mortgage backed securities had to restate the value of that portfolio when the real estate bubble burst. Before SOX, they'd just carry the same value on the books and everything was peachy. But now with SOX, everything has to be present value. So since the homes were worth less than the mortgage, according to SOX they had to show a negative value. So the holders of the securities had to scramble for cash to cover the paper loss. Which ef'ed the capital market. You know the rest. Was SOX the sole cause? Of course not, but between the beating these guys took in commodities and SOX, they were nearly dead. And with the economy already weakened, the walls started to crumble. Then once people started to default on their funny money interest only mortgages, it was all over.

    Watch that Osama and the new congress will spend over 825 BILLION dollars on the stimulus plan and it won't do crap. Instead of spending all of that pork, they need to do the five things I listed above. True last year. More so today. OH! Too bad pelosi has herself all wet over the prospects of re-instating estate taxes, raising capital gains, and eliminating the tax cuts. Can you say "Smoot Hawley?"

    Yeah. People keeps saying the oil prices are inelastic. Then the idiots bid the price up to $150/bbl and are surprised that demand actually does fall. And because of the huge numbers involved a couple of percent makes a huge bang on the bottom line.

    This stuff isn't rocket science. But people have to stop bullshitting themselves and take a realistic look beyond the politics. Oh never mind.

    Best regards,
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2009
  16. fc3

    fc3 Just another eclectic geek TECHNICAL Contributor

    Nov 12, 2006
    Northern NJ
    1999 Sea Ray 330DA
    Twin 7.4 MPI (310 propshaft HP) V-drives
    Twin Mercury Marine marinized 7.4L L-29 V8s
    Cast iron block w 4-bolt mains
  17. highslice

    highslice Active Member SILVER Sponsor

    Mar 28, 2008
    Table Rock Lake, Hollister Missouri
    270 SLX
    496 Mag
    Bravo III
    Rep. Barney Frank said that though he is focusing on financial issues right now, he hopes the administration will try to restore a “general ban.”

    “Obviously many of us want to have a general ban,” said Frank.

    What a bunch of F'n idiots. It's a good thing that up the Butt Barney is fixing the financial crisis, otherwise he would be "fixing' our energy issues. What an F'n bunch of D-bags.

    Those who don't study history are destined to repeat it - These ass wipes don't even study the last 12 months. How do we keep electing these people???
  18. comsnark

    comsnark New Member

    Apr 10, 2007
    NJ Shore
    SeaRay SunSport
    I had a friend make the inelastic argument last night over beer.

    I simply cannot buy that argument. Not when the Gaza thing spiked oil $5-10 and the gas pump spiked $0.15 in three days.

    Mind you, actual supply and actual demand have not actually changed due to the strife. Not within the accuracy of the numbers. If the supply/demand curve were truly inelastic. . .then this would not happen.

    - - - - -

    I am amused by all the political rhetoric. Seems like the Republican Party and the Conservative punditry have suddenly discovered the sins of deficit spending.

    And it is too bad Obama is a failed President. He really made a muck of things, didn't he? He certainly has spent with no regard to the future, hasn't he? And his foreign policy has proven to be a joke. . . . .oh wait.. . how long has he been in office?
  19. billandamy

    billandamy New Member

    Oct 22, 2007
    Southwest CT
    2008 205 sport. MonsterTower wakeboard tower.
    5.0 mpi (260 hp) alpha one drive with 19p ss prop.
    Lack of choice. SO we end up with career politicians instead of the proper people doing the job.
  20. unlvrebel

    unlvrebel New Member

    Mar 24, 2008
    Clearwater, FL
    2005 220 Sundeck
    2002 Dodge Durango 5.9L
    5.0 Merc
    A pop of the Oil bubble IS, in part, a reduction of consumer demand of gasoline.

    A US recession casues a drop in consumer demand for gasoline.

    A drop in air travel IS a drop in consumer demand for gasoline. Airliners consume gasoline. It is navgas, but still an oil-refined product.

    This really isn't gasoline... BUT trucks still consume diesel so that makes them consumers as well...

    See US recession above.

    And Chinese don't drive?

    What weak demand are you talking about here? The demaed for distillates (read gasoline)?

    No, gasoline isn't the only driver behind oil prices. However, 40% of a barrel of oil becomes gasoline so a reduction in gasoline consumption certainly does have an impact on the price of a barrel of oil. To say that the current drop in gasoline demand has no bearing on the price of a barrel of oil is a bit ostrich-like. Sometimes it is better to admit to being incorrect.

    I am not advocating that the reduction of gasoline demand is the ONLY driver. No, not at all. Everyone must remember we live in a petroleum age. The computer you are typing away on - oil. The majority of your car - oil or oil used for energy to build. Synthetic fabrics - carpeting, clothing, etc. - oil. All of the plastics around you - oil. Yes, there are other factors that drive the price of oil.

    But demand for gasoline is still one of the biggest.

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