Recovery?

[JV II]

The US will follow Europe:
$5.00/gallon gas is coming to stay
Mortgages in the double digit percentage rates
Home loans will never be easy to get and will require 20-30% down
The dollar to collapse or a global currency will prevail

The US will no longer drive the world economy

 

[comsnark]

come on, put your reputation on the line. Up or Down?

Heh. Reputation on the line.

What does "reputation" mean on a forum where I don't use my real name? Heh. And I have been called a bunch of names on this forum that would imply that my words here are not valued much. Frankly, I only read this forum because I learn a bunch about searay's on this forum. I post out of boredom.

But. . .we digress.

OK. . . I predict the market will go down in the near term (ie; September through December). I further predict that then the stock market will then rise over time. This is why I believe that there will be buying opportunities in the fall.

These movements will not be based upon market fundamentals. They are driven by the need by really rich people desiring to invest. That puts money into the market, and fuels stock price inflation. Occassionally, the rich panic and the bubble bursts.

I could go on for a few paragraphs. . but that's enough for now.

Don't ask me my predictions on inflation

 

[comsnark]

The US will follow Europe:
$5.00/gallon gas is coming to stay
Mortgages in the double digit percentage rates
Home loans will never be easy to get and will require 20-30% down
The dollar to collapse or a global currency will prevail

The US will no longer drive the world economy

Mike;

In what way are we following Europe?
$5.00 gas in Europe is strong function of fuel taxes. We don't have those here. . .yet. And despite the prediction of right wing radio. . .I don't see it coming in the near future.

Mortgages are goiing to follow interest rates. . and interest rates are going to be low for a long time.

20-30% down on buying homes, and hard to get a mortgage: You make that sound like a bad thing!

Know what: I think buying a home SHOULD be hard. And you SHOULD need 20-30% down. Even today. . I am watching someone I know with a low credit score buy a house with less than 5% down. I am really wondering how these people are going to afford the house. If the guy loses his job for a month or two. . they will be hosed. Or rather. . the bank will be hosed. Or rather. .. because there are family relations involved. . .*I* will be hosed (because they are gonna come running to Uncle Com -> and that will be a no-win situation for the Snark household).

Does the U.S. today drive the world economy? Or is it China? I know that China is driving much of the increased fuel demand. . and they WERE driving much of the industrial growth in the world. Chinese infrastucture building was driving up steel prices and industrial goods pricing. . until the recession hit last year. Then all that dried up, and steel prices and industrial goods pricing have been declining since.

As for the dollar. . I learned something important last year: When the banking system collapsed, lead by US banks. . .the dollar ROSE. Why? Because as bad as the US economy was promising to be .. . as much debt as we were taking on. . .Everyone else was worse off.

Ok . . enough pontificating.

Time for a Scotch! Been a long week. Thank gosh it's Thursday.

So Mike: How do you like your new boat? You have a nice pic in your sig. I personally would be scared to put my boat in that shallow of water (well . . maybe if the engines were off and I dragged it to the shore!)

 

[Four Suns]

OK Cornstalk... why do you think people don't respect your discussions?

 

[comsnark]

OK Cornstalk... why do you think people don't respect your discussions?

. . . because I think Joe Wilson was rude instead of being a hero?

Darn. First drink already taking affect. . . must. . .stop. . .posting. . .. . but better here than on Facebook!

 

[Four Suns]

I actually really enjoyed Joe Wilson's comment... not because he was rude... but because it PISSED OFF Nancy... her look was awesome!

 

[comsnark]

Well. . .that is one of the more intelligent statements on the topic that I have heard today.

Personally, I believe that Pelosi and Reid are very much part of the problem and are NOT part of the solution. Whether you agree with Obama or not. . I think those two are not serving the public interest as even they see it.

 

[fc3]

Said it before, Bernanke is the Market. All of that "free money" has to go somewhere.

 

[sbw1]

This is getting to be be a generational squabble. At some point people will develop insight. May not live long enough to enjoy it but probability is still on my side.

 

[Pseudomind]

. . . because I think Joe Wilson was rude instead of being a hero?..

The term hero has become as much misused as the word children is when used by the media.

Seems just about everyone is a hero for some such nonsensical reason... and if one wants publicity just mention the word child, or children.

I actually really enjoyed Joe Wilson's comment... not because he was rude... but because it PISSED OFF Nancy... her look was awesome!

I agree... Nancy looked like she had let a not so "silent but deadly" rip which was overheard by others.

It in the truest sense was not the proper thing to do , and as such qualifies as being rude... But for myself I would sure like it if many more in congress would get a little rude.:thumbsup:

 

[JV II]

Comsnark, its just my interpretation of the data. I don't disagree with your lending thoughts though.

Please explain to me why interest rates are going to be low for a long time and define long time. I may agree with you here if you say 2 years.

Also, please explain why any country in the world would want the global economy to be based on the currency of a nation in 12 trillion dollars of debt.

Let's see which way it goes on each of my points over the next 24 months.

I love the new boat. I have no complaints or regrets. In the photo I actually trimmed up and had 2 feet of water under the keel, dropped anchor, and drifted 100 feet aft into the shallows where I deployed the stern anchor on the beach. I used the typical Sea Ray wild anchor swing to my advantage. When the boat swung in close to shore, I tightened up the stern anchor. Leaving the shallows was easy as I just towed myself out using the windlass.

 

[comsnark]

Read the article.

Not sure I disagree with any of it.

So here is a question: If the Fed "creates" $2T of equity. . and the stock market "loses" $10T of equity. . is the net effect inflationary or deflationary?

Hmmm. . where is my disclaimer statement. . . ah here. . .

My thoughts are my own opinion. I do not present these thoughts as fact, nor do I care to offer any evidence to back it up. Value these words at your own peril.

 

[Jack F]

I agree... Nancy looked like she had let a not so "silent but deadly" rip which was overheard by others.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_RwdLdQxhZGk/SqdQ5SIH80I/AAAAAAAAFPY/G0lWApXw49c/s1600-h/conan9-8+3.jpg



It in the truest sense was not the proper thing to do , and as such qualifies as being rude... But for myself I would sure like it if many more in congress would get a little rude.:thumbsup:

I think he was expecting some hissing and booing, not dead silence from his colleagues when he blurted that out.

 

[comsnark]

Comsnark, its just my interpretation of the data. I don't disagree with your lending thoughts though.

Please explain to me why interest rates are going to be low for a long time and define long time. I may agree with you here if you say 2 years.

Also, please explain why any country in the world would want the global economy to be based on the currency of a nation in 12 trillion dollars of debt.

Let's see which way it goes on each of my points over the next 24 months.

I love the new boat. I have no complaints or regrets. In the photo I actually trimmed up and had 2 feet of water under the keel, dropped anchor, and drifted 100 feet aft into the shallows where I deployed the stern anchor on the beach. I used the typical Sea Ray wild anchor swing to my advantage. When the boat swung in close to shore, I tightened up the stern anchor. Leaving the shallows was easy as I just towed myself out using the windlass.

In financial circles, "long time" tends to be 2 quarters. Right? I will stake my reputation (see above!) on "2 years". . . hard to say where anything will be in that time. Who knows. . maybe we might elect a fiscally conservative congressional majority! Hahahah. What party would they be from? The Greens? Certainly not the Republicans or the Democrats. Hahahah.

As for the Dollar. . heck. . I don't know why they would put faith in the dollar. But they did it last year. Why? Faith. Because at the end of the day, the US is still strong. We have nukes, and a tranquil population that isn't opposing the government

As for the boat. . yeah. . remember. . this is a boating forum. . yeah. . that's the way I would do it to I actually WANT to do something like that now. I too need to clean the hull But I am happy that I don't have barnecles on the props yet. . .my boat made full speed at full RPM with full fuel last weekend. I had a smile ear to ear.

Heck. . I got that smile now just thinking about it

 

[comsnark]

I agree with psuodomind.

It would be nice if those in Congress and the Senate got a little rude. But there is time for rude. .and time for polite. Last night was time for polite.

But before these people get rude. . .they should stay at a Holiday Inn Express. Or start giving these people some vitamins. Honestly. . .did someone beat these people with a bunch of stupid sticks? We have enough people substituting *rude* for *intelligence*. Just look at your average politcal blog. Or talk show. It is time to combine *rude* with *intelligence*. Not one for the other.

Ok. . need more scotch. Hick.

Should I go back and delete all these posts now?

 

[sprink56]

The recent market activity is a "facade" sort of like sets on a stage. The market at one time was a barometer of tangible economic growth...growth that was fueled by real people building and producing real products. The market now represents nothing real. It is no more a measure of our current economy than trying to figure out where a dog will take a dump next.

Gross Domestic Product and our balance of trade numbers tell the real story....as do the number of private and commercial mortgage foreclosures.

As Mike said in the beginning of this thread...the credit markets are non existent because there is nothing left to collateralize. The value of everything is in free fall. Developers can't develop their properties, residential or commercial because there is no "hard" value in what they have to collateralize.

The core of this disease is our failure to stop sending $650B~$750B yearly out of the country for energy cost. The rest of the world is looking to us for the "next big thing" in energy and we have not developed it yet. We're still feeling to much "money smoke" coming through the oil pipe to get off our ass and do the "next big thing".
Until we do we are going to keep sliding into a hole.

When the rich people stop spending money on America in America none of us get any of it. They have stopped and have not started yet. The money that is circulating now represents no more than "Barry" Obama saying "print more".

Save up on staples and survival gear...it's not looking better anytime soon.

I am optimistic that someone will rise to the top, assume a leadership position and put people to work doing/building real products in America.:thumbsup:

 

[Four Suns]

I agree that interest rates are going to stay low for a few years... heck... 1-month libor is at 0.25% or so... That's like free money.

I go back and forth on any kind of inflation. I think the "inflation" already happened when too many dollars were chasing two few things (i.e. houses, cars, etc.) and so the money being pumped into the economy now from printing it is just paying back from inflation from a few years ago...

I also think the whole world economy stinks so it's not like France is going to become the industrial/entrepreneurial power house of the future...

Short gold...

Here's a good article:

http://www.businessinsider.com/bubbles-in-the-making-2009-9

 

[comsnark]

I go back and forth on any kind of inflation. I think the "inflation" already happened when too many dollars were chasing two few things (i.e. houses, cars, etc.) and so the money being pumped into the economy now from printing it is just paying back from inflation from a few years ago...

Can you clarify this?

Did you just say that we already had inflation and THEREFORE we are printing money :smt017

There was something on NPR a while back called "the giant pool of money"; the basic postulate was that there was huge amounts of demand of *secure investments* in U.S. dollars. Problem was. .there was not enough mortage debt to satisfy the demand. Therefore. . people came up with ways to create more mortgage debt. Boom! Mortgage debacle.

Or so they say.

As for inflation. . what I saw, as a consumer and someone in the petrochemical industry, was two things; (1) Oil costs (due to speculation) and (2) raw material costs (due to China infrastructure growth) created huge pressure on the US consumer goods producers. . .which they simply passed on to the consumer. BANG. Inflation.

And with inflation, consumers stopped buying. And employment dropped. And BANG. People can't afford the stupid mortgages they should never have gotten.

And they economy went to poo.

Anyhow. . that's my view. How do we get out?

Starts with mortgage companies writting REAL mortages.

Continues with politicians starting to stay at Holiday Inn Express and reading less <<rush limbow>> and <<daily kos>>.

Now. . .where was my disclaimer statement? Ah . . .I already posted it twice in this thread. Time to start deleting yet?

 

[Pseudomind]

The recent market activity is a "facade" sort of like sets on a stage. The market at one time was a barometer of tangible economic growth...growth that was fueled by real people building and producing real products. The market now represents nothing real. It is no more a measure of our current economy than trying to figure out where a dog will take a dump next...

The money that is circulating now represents no more than "Barry" Obama saying "print more".

Save up on staples and survival gear...it's not looking better anytime soon.

About this, I halfway believe it is being inflated somewhat by the big investment firms in an attempt to recoup major losses, but I do not believe that much of the public is buying it, especially after so many small investors lost so much in their 401k's and other investments. I know for myself I lost about 100k, not near as much as some others. I will be 60 next year, and what I have left I am damn sure not going to put anywhere at the moment (I looked at the lost like this $100,000/12 equals 8.3 years I could have supplemented my retirement income by $1,000.00 per month). It is smoke an mirrors, the same as it was with futures investing which drove oil up over $25.00 per barrel in one day, back when gas went to over $5,00 a gallon.

"Smoke and mirrors", nothing is going to happen until you get gov-mint out of the hen house. The gov-mint put Madoff in prison over his Ponzi scheme and they are running the same thing only much larger.

You just cannot have the gov-mint putting everyone to work in the hopes that these workers salaries will stimulte the economy. Who pays these salaries, the tax payers do, what comprises the gov-mint, the tax payer, so if you decrease the number of non-gov-mint workers , thus receiving less tax revenue.

Or look at it this way, you put every one in the USA working for the gov-mint, now tax their salaries, just where is their salary coming from? There own federal withholding's, just a Ponzi scheme. They have produced nothing or sold anything. OKay enough my 2 cents.

The recent market activity is a "facade" sort of like sets on a stage. The market at one time was a barometer of tangible economic growth...growth that was fueled by real people building and producing real products. The market now represents nothing real. It is no more a measure of our current economy than trying to figure out where a dog will take a dump next...

I have missed this,what does the "Barry" refer to? Goldwater?

The money that is circulating now represents no more than "Barry" Obama saying "print more".

And as to this? I have heard this rumor more then once, that their are some concerned with the military being stretched so thin, that if a revolt were to take place, there may not be enough forces to instiute any kind of control, so the big push to increase all under the guise of Homeland security.

Remember I said, "I have heard this rumor more then once!" I do not subscribe to rumors, but at the same time, it does make some sense.:huh:

Save up on staples and survival gear...it's not looking better anytime soon.

:thumbsup:

 

[gordovip24]

"I've got to do healthcare, I've got to do energy, and then I'm looking very closely at doing immigration," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., declared in June.

And these things looming on the horizon to limit "our money supply".:smt013