Recovery?

[tobnpr]

I'm not a stock market guy- but I cannot for the life of me understand what's driving the current rally.
Recovery? The Administration sez it's here, but damned if I see it from my end. Credit markets are still dysfunctional- and I cannot see an economic recovery in the future if small business and individuals remain cut-off from credit. All the vacant storefronts- are STILL VACANT.

So, are they telling us what they think we want to hear? Are investors driving the market higher without a basis in fact, just because they fear they might be caught on the sidelines when things (hopefully) DO turn around? Last week unemployment hit a recent high, yet the market continued upwards...

So, here's my $.02 predicition. The rally will not continue, the market will correct to reflect actual conditions (maybe two months, maybe six months or more) when the rose colored glasses come off and the Kool-Aid pitcher is emptied.

Your thoughts?

 

[Lazy Daze]

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So, are they telling us what they think we want to hear?

Bingo! Doesn't everyone want to be told "everything's alright"? At least, that's what the Admin tells us we want to hear, right? Don't listen to those nay-sayers - everything is fine - it really wasn't ever that bad... :smt013

 

[gnealon]

Bingo! Doesn't everyone want to be told "everything's alright"? At least, that's what the Admin tells us we want to hear, right? Don't listen to those nay-sayers - everything is fine - it really wasn't ever that bad... :smt013

I work in a hedge fund in Midtown... this is exactly what i am hearing as well around this neck of the woods.

 

[Turtlesboat]

All I have to say is i've been pulling out over the last 2 weeks.

 

[gnealon]

All I have to say is i've been pulling out over the last 2 weeks.

Short the S&P!!!!! Its going to 700. :thumbsup:

Btw... when it actually does, im going to dig up this thread and tell everyone i told you so. If it doesn't i'll let it die :grin:

 

[tdappleman]

All I have to say is i've been pulling out over the last 2 weeks.

Any complaints...?

My stocks are staying fairly consistent but are higher than they were at the beginning of this downturn. Even so, I'm selling off as well - not worth it to risk the loss again.

 

[Turtlesboat]

Yes, I should have sold 2 years ago.

 

[Larry&Leisa]

never been in it till about march of this year... it's mostly all out now.. thank you very much but I think I'm done for awhile.

 

[Turtlesboat]

what's that saying??? pull out before you make a baby... wait, wrong saying.

 

[Turtlesboat]

I've been paying more and more attention to The Elliot Wave Theory. It's predicting a large swing down.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

It's either this or reading tea leaves and the tea leaves thing didn't work so well.

 

[gnealon]

I've been paying more and more attention to The Elliot Wave Theory. It's predicting a large swing down.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

It's either this or reading tea leaves and the tea leaves thing didn't work so well.

haha... me 2!!! Its predicting a HUGE swing in the S&P. You can really only use it on high volume securities.

I have actually been thinking about writing an algorithm based on it to do day to day trading. Its an embedded fractal... that's the problem :smt013

 

[Pseudomind]

I'm not a stock market guy- but I cannot for the life of me understand what's driving the current rally.
Recovery? The Administration sez it's here, but damned if I see it from my end. Credit markets are still dysfunctional- and I cannot see an economic recovery in the future if small business and individuals remain cut-off from credit. All the vacant storefronts- are STILL VACANT.

So, are they telling us what they think we want to hear? Are investors driving the market higher without a basis in fact, just because they fear they might be caught on the sidelines when things (hopefully) DO turn around? Last week unemployment hit a recent high, yet the market continued upwards...

So, here's my $.02 predicition. The rally will not continue, the market will correct to reflect actual conditions (maybe two months, maybe six months or more) when the rose colored glasses come off and the Kool-Aid pitcher is emptied.

Your thoughts?

I am with you on this, "turn around?"

I heard this today, and I am sure it is just a rumor, but someone/some group has suppossedly said there is a slow moving movement to rename the state of Alabama to "AlOBAMA.":smt013

What will someone think of next?

 

[Smile Maker]

I am with you on this, "turn around."

I heard this today, and I am sure it is just a rumor, but someone/some group has suppossedly said there is a slow moving movement to rename the state of Alabama to "AlOBAMA.":smt013

What will someone think of next?

He really isn't too popular down here.

 

[Mr Salt]

The market is getting better because of the following, and it has nothing to do with what is going on in the ecomony except for interest rates. People who pulled their money out late last year and early this year and went into CDs are now finding that those CDs upon renewal will not pay them very much. Dividend rates are higher than CD rates and for qualified dividends the tax rate is lower, so the the cash that left the market earlier is beginning to come back and pushing the prices up.

 

[comsnark]

All I have to say is i've been pulling out over the last 2 weeks.

Pulling out money at 52 week highs certainly beats pulling out money at 52 week lows. . . . .

Me? I have two thoughts:

1) I think marktets typically do slump in the fall.

2) I would challenge anybody who thinks they can predict market prices, or thinks they can rationally buys/sell stocks based upon fundamentals, to explain the market behavior last year. +/- 500 point daily swings cannot be based upon the soundness of the companies being traded.

My thoughts are my own opinion. I do not present these thoughts as fact, nor do I care to offer any evidence to back it up. Value these words at your own peril.

 

[Turtlesboat]

Pulling out money at 52 week highs certainly beats pulling out money at 52 week lows. . . . .

Me? I have two thoughts:

1) I think marktets typically do slump in the fall.

2) I would challenge anybody who thinks they can predict market prices, or thinks they can rationally buys/sell stocks based upon fundamentals, to explain the market behavior last year. +/- 500 point daily swings cannot be based upon the soundness of the companies being traded.

My thoughts are my own opinion. I do not present these thoughts as fact, nor do I care to offer any evidence to back it up. Value these words at your own peril.

come on, put your reputation on the line. Up or Down?

 

[Southpaw II]

My prediction earlier this Spring was that the market would be 9,500 by years end and 10,000 by next Summer, 2010. Just dock talk and a few beers.

 

[mwph]

He really isn't too popular down here.

Not at all. He aint got the balls to have a "town hall meeting" down here.

As far as the market goes... Remember boys & girls; we are buying & selling slips of paper that, in many cases, have little or nothing to do with the corporations whose names appear on them. Slips of paper that have no promises, no meaningfull signatures, and no real value. On top of that, we buy them form a seller that harbors no accountability or liability for the implied value.

And they say gambling is illegal in most states. Ha!

 

[sbw1]

Much of the buying and selling this time of year are transactions related to tax policy.

 

[tobnpr]

Yeah...my point wasn't as much to try to "predict" the direction of the market (though I guess I did), but to try to understand what's driving this rally. End of last year- any "bad" economic news at all- often in spite of some good news- and the market dropped preicipitously. It seems like now, no matter how bad the news- like record unemployment I mentioned initially- and the market still rises.