Captain, would you STAY or GO with this forecast?

ziekman@cox.net

ziekman@cox.net

Active Member
Jun 23, 2009
1,242
Old Saybrook, CT
Boat Info
2012 45 Yacht
Engines
D6 Volvo Penta IPS
We have 3 years boating experience, relatively confident, don't look for trouble, but somewhat skeptical on the forecast. Here's the question: with a Memorial Day Weekend reservation, we need to determine if the forecast is a showstopper or not, for Thursday (tomorrow) departure. We are leaving from Chester CT, down the river to the Long Island Sound...then up to Watch Hill, RI and then down to Block Island, RI. The forecast for the Long Island Sound is perfect, but we are going to be in the Block Island Sound for about 13 nm, with this forecast:


[SIZE=+1] 407 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2010[/SIZE]


[SIZE=+1].SYNOPSIS FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS...[/SIZE]
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS WEATHER BEYOND THE 24-36 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD...PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND FOLLOW THE
HAZARDOUS OUTLOOKS LINK AT THE TOP OF THE BLUE BAR ON THE LEFT.

$$






ANZ237-262015-
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
[SIZE=+1] 407 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2010[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1] SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT THROUGH[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1] THURSDAY EVENING[/SIZE]


[SIZE=+1] TODAY[/SIZE]
W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.

[SIZE=+1] TONIGHT[/SIZE]
W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

[SIZE=+1] THU[/SIZE]
NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BECOMING E IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WITH
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
 
If you are asking, I think the prevailing wisdom would be to stay. If you are confident enough not to ask...then you already have your answer.

Personally, as a weekend warrior, I do not go out when I see 3-5 foot seas or winds over 20 knots in the forecast.
 
Its not that far, I would probably go, but I've gone in much worse... Where's the fun if you only go when it is perfect????
 
If you do not feel comfortable....Stay put and leave very early.....However, coming from CT, you will have the wind from your stern.....I would wait until 6:00 ish when the winds historically calm down and have a nice sunset gruise over to the Block......
 
I would poke my head out and see what it's like, if it sucks, maybe head to green point for the night. 20mph wind is not going to be a comfortable ride, but if the swells are wide, might not be too bad.
 
I have had my 330 in 5'-6' seas a couple of times and the boat did much better in them than my Admiral.

If you feel confident in handling the boat and the weather at the marina where you're spending the weekend looks promising I would go. 13 miles isn't that far a trip to spend in 5' waves and it gives you bragging rights on the dock when you get back.

Keep the pfd's handy.
 
3-5's aren't comfy, but not dangerous if you know what you're doing in a 33 footer...esp. for only 13 miles.

More important is the direction of the wind relative to your course. Headsea? Beam? Following?

Forecasts change dramatically, so I'd keep checking for updates. Also- what about the longer range forecast for the return trip- just as important.
 
Turtlesboat said:
I would poke my head out and see what it's like, if it sucks, maybe head to green point for the night. 20mph wind is not going to be a comfortable ride, but if the swells are wide, might not be too bad.
Click to expand...

I don't know the waters that well and Turtle does so this makes sense. The forecast doesn't startle me and I would go...and I'm much smaller than you.

In April we came home from NW San Juan island here in WA in 30 knot winds. I was a bumby right home but nothing awful.

d6ab3684.jpg

c126e39f.jpg

392a7391.jpg
 
tobnpr said:
3-5's aren't comfy, but not dangerous if you know what you're doing in a 33 footer...esp. for only 13 miles.

More important is the direction of the wind relative to your course. Headsea? Beam? Following?

Forecasts change dramatically, so I'd keep checking for updates. Also- what about the longer range forecast for the return trip- just as important.
Click to expand...

Great advice and comments from all, much appreciated. Regarding this question, the winds will be NE, and we are headed SE, so I think that means they will be a combination of Following and Beam. Longer range, it appears things will calm down through Memorial day. But, as has already been said, forecasts change, so we will be monitoring.
 
It's good to push yourself a little, so you grow your experience, but know your limitations. Based on what I am reading, those conditions seem tolerable to me, but you will be working. I'm surprised winds under 20 knots and seas 5ft and less are getting a small craft advisory.
 
mmcguire2002 said:
It's good to push yourself a little, so you grow your experience, but know your limitations. Based on what I am reading, those conditions seem tolerable to me, but you will be working. I'm surprised winds under 20 knots and seas 5ft and less are getting a small craft advisory.
Click to expand...

I don't get it either (why an advisory)...and, now a revised forecast still has the advisory, but the high winds are out of the picture - just the 3 to 5 seas, nothing else seems to have changed. Go figure!!

-
[SIZE=+1] 404 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010[/SIZE]


[SIZE=+1].SYNOPSIS FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS...[/SIZE]
A STRENGTHENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. QUEBEC HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS THU INTO FRI. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TOWARD BERMUDA SAT
THROUGH TUE WHILE LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS SE CANADA.

FOR INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS WEATHER BEYOND THE 24-36 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD...PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND FOLLOW THE
HAZARDOUS OUTLOOKS LINK AT THE TOP OF THE BLUE BAR ON THE LEFT.

$$






ANZ237-270730-
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
[SIZE=+1] 404 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1] SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT THROUGH[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1] THURSDAY EVENING[/SIZE]


[SIZE=+1] TONIGHT[/SIZE]
SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE 5 TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

[SIZE=+1] THU[/SIZE]
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 TO 5 FT.

[SIZE=+1] THU NIGHT[/SIZE]
SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
 
Pay attention to the forcast and changing conditions, but in a boat that size 3-5's are no problem. (You'll appreciate full canvas and eisenglass though)

In fact, Lake Mead typically gets waves that size and sometimes larger during the Spring and Fall - my 260 handles them great (It's actually fun) - only had a problem when I was anchored too close to shore.

Shore / land is generally your biggest danger - not open water (unless the waves are Really big.)
 
It could be a combination of things that could make the conditions bad. Wind, tide, current combinations can make for bad conditions.
 
This forecast is crap. You are looking at the predicted wave height without the predicted wave period. If you look at buoy data on Wednesday afternoon - the wave height is 6.6 feet, but the period is 11 seconds. These are large swells, typical of this open water area. You will hardly notice these, except that your engines may strain as you climb a swell.

As for the actual local conditions from Watch Hill Passage to Block Island, you will have to look and see for yourself. Poke your nose out into Rhode Island Sound and see for yourself. If it looks too rough - go back to Watch Hill, or Stonington, or Mystic or any of the other beautiful harbors in that area - You will have a great time, even if you can't make it to BI.
 
You may also try NOAA, which is what I usually use. I completely agree with the post above that period between swells is as important, if not more important than the size of the swell. Don't discount either, but definitely do not go out if swells are large and period between swells is short.
 
Are you all assuming that the 3-5's are ground in stone? !5+kt winds and a forcast of 3-5's usually means an occasional 6-8 set in the bunch. This is going to be a rough ride. Be sure your passengers are up to it.

Also, the worst mistake any of us can make in a boat is terrify the passengers who have trusted us to provide for their safety and comfort. Scare your wife and kids and you will pay for it for a real long time with the possible outcome boating by yourself in the future.
 
Last edited:
fwebster said:
Also, the worst mistake any of us can make in a boat is terrify the passengers who have trusted us to provide for their safety and comfort. Scare your wife and kids and you will pay for it for a real long time with the possible outcome boating by yourself in the future.
Click to expand...

Amen!
 
And wave period makes a HUGE difference in that forecast. 3-5 foot swells aren't too bad, 3-5 breaking chop is another story. Ditto what Frank said about passengers and fear. Its supposed to be fun remember. I can still vividly remember getting caught in a BAD storm with my dad when I was about 8, I'm in my late 40s now and I can still see the waves breaking over the bow as we ran the inlet.
 
Three footers with a long period are unnoticeable. 5 footers with a short period are hell. Your boat will make it fine, but you and your crew will feel it. NOAA is usually smart about the small craft warning - I read it to mean that the wave periods and heights will make it unpleasant at least.

The 8 footers that I have been in are certainly survivable, but you won't catch me heading into them deliberately.
 
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