Would You Cross in These Conditions?

[M Prod]

We’re headed out This morning on a 16 night trip through the Canadian Gulf Islands. Only issue is to get there, we have to cross the Strait of Georgia and conditions don’t seem ideal today. It’s about a 30NM crossing in open water. There’s a strong wind warning in effect With winds this morning forecast at 15-20kts, but picking up to 25-35Kts this afternoon. We’re trying to get out early as possible here, but the forecast has me nervous. I know the boat will handle it, but might be a pretty uncomfortable ride. Would you head out? The forecast doesn’t get any better over the next several days.

 

[M Prod]

I should add that winds will be out of the northwest, and we’ll be traveling west south west. So not directly into the waves, but not following either by any means.

 

[ocgrant]

I am a fair weather boater... No need to put yourself in that mess for no reason. I canceled my trip to Bahamas yesterday becasue of 3-4' waves and 15-25kts winds. Just not worth it.

 

[CaptRonn]

You answered your own question.

In aviation, we call it Risk Management and Aviation Decision Making. You have identified the risk, now you need to identify the mitigation. If you can't readily identify a mitigation, that should aid you in the decision making.

I'll also add as a part of that, remember accidents don't happen because of one small event, it takes several small events that lead up to the accident.

Look at it like a chain, if you can break one link in the accident chain you can stop the accident from occurring.

Look at all of the risk, then all of the mitigations. You'll probably find a few in there that will make you think.

 

[M Prod]

I am a fair weather boater... No need to put yourself in that mess for no reason. I canceled my trip to Bahamas yesterday becasue of 3-4' waves and 15-25kts winds. Just not worth it.

Thanks and you have a lot more boat there than me. We might have to pick an alternate destination this side of the strait for a few days instead. Might just get out there this am and see how it looks, and turn into an inland fjord if need be.

 

[sbw1]

If you are uncomfortable, don't go.

 

[Henry Boyd]

View attachment 88623 If you are uncomfortable, don't go.

I'd modify that slightly; If the Admiral is not comfortable, don't even think about going.

In general I'm with OC if you are going for fun, don't make the trip miserable by beating your head against unfavorable conditions.

 

[Golfman25]

Get an early start and see how it looks. If you can make the 30 miles before it kicks up, then you’re good. Be prepared to make alternate plans. Good luck.

 

[M Prod]

Thanks guys. All good points. We’re going to get out of the marina by 10am and go out and have a look. The buoy in the middle of the strait is currently reporting 12kt winds with 1ft seas at 3sec intervals. Not bad, but that buoy has let me down more than once. If it looks like it’s going to suck, we can make a turn north and head into Howe Soiund which has some nice anchorages that we could hang in for a day or two while things (hopefully) calm down.

 

[DB360]

Just wondering if you can look at other weather sites for a better forcast?
Stay safe!
D

 

[Thornton69]

Have been seeing a lot of forecasts overstated in the North this season. Not sure if anyone else in these parts have as well? Was actually wondering if it may be related to trying to persuade travel plans with the covid concerns.
Poke out and have a look. Let us know how you made out.

 

[Chip S]

When I was flying we had a saying, "If you crash and kill yourself would the people reading the story about it in the newspaper say 'What was he thinking?'"? It definitely helped define the decision.

 

[Gofirstclass]

I'm just about the opposite of a fair weather boater. I don't mind wind and waves but the thing that makes me have second thoughts is if I have to pass through one of the locks. If the wind is howling those concrete walls can be very unforgiving to gelcoat.

If no lock is involved I'll go. We took our 330 Sundancer from Friday Harbor around the south end of San Juan Island and over to Victoria. In 3'-5' waves while crossing the Haro Strait, and did it on plane until the girls made us slow down. We did, the girls stopped griping and that made the trip a whole lot better.

At times my wife is the decision maker. In fact, she almost always is the decision maker. "Happy wife, happy life".

 

[Leardriver]

I was a pilot for a Nascar team until 2018. We were the champs in 2017, and second place in 2018. Talk about absolutely having to be somewhere.
Our goal is never having to prove how good we are, and we are hired on merit, not the next seniority number. We said no sometimes, and your case sounds like one of those times.

 

[boatman37]

I have never been in those conditions so I can't add too much but if I had to dock in those conditions then no way. I think many here said it best, if you have to ask then you probably shouldn't go.

@Leardriver, I know that team no longer exists but Barney had a great operation and adding MTJ was the cherry on top. They defied all odds. True underdog story there. I know a few in the NASCAR community. My son raced against a few of them and we used to pit at nationals with a former NASCAR driver (Erik Jones-not the current one..lol) and former Indy car driver (Mark Dismore). Raced against a couple of NASCAR guys but raced against a bunch of Indy car guys. We sold all of our stuff about 2013 and gave it up.

 

[Timeflys]

From another aviation POV.....do you have any enroute alternates, places you could divert to if you had problems? It doesn’t sound like you have options..so..as in your post “There’s a strong wind warning in effect With winds this morning forecast at 15-20kts, but picking up to 25-35Kts this afternoon”.
For me ... It doesn’t sound pleasant...too many what if factors when it should be just a nice day in the boat....find something else to do and enjoy the security/safety of a command decision.
Too many accident investigations are followed by “what were they thinking?”
Enjoy whatever you do....

 

[Golfman25]

Hopefully he'll check in and tell us what happened.

 

[M Prod]

Well we made it. But it wasn’t pretty. It actually wasn’t too bad as we got out of Vancouver Harbour and into the strait. 1-2ft chop so we were running. Every now and then we would hit a bigger one and I’d have to drop the throttle. We were running about 16-17kts and that was not too bad for the most part. About a 3rd of the way across the wind really started picking up and the waves were hitting us forward and starboard and getting blown over the boat. About halfway ..maybe a little further, it got worse. Probably 3-4 ft with occasional 5 footers ..wind howling. Everything in the back is wet, I’m getting wet, my 4yo loves it, puppy not so much, wife surprisingly really good helping me spot through the soaking wet strataglass. We could see the island though and so we persevered. I thought there would be a window there between 10-2 that we could get through ...I was right till about 11:30. Anyway it wasn’t fun but we’re here now and can enjoy the next 16 nights in more sheltered locations on this side. At no point did I feel like we were in any danger ..just not ideal and not enjoyable.

thanks for all the thoughts

 

[ocgrant]

Glad to hear you made it safely... Enjoy your vacation.

 

[Jeremygavin]

Enjoy your trip. Usually the boat is fine, it the passengers that don’t like the trip.