Stock Market Crash?

Welcome to the world of hedge funds. Now try not to compete with Lehman. OK?
 
Dow down about 467 points... oh well... it wasn't 1000...

It'll be off another 500 tomorrow.

CNBC mentioned the unwinding of Lehman's commodities hedges is going to drive down the prices (as suspected). The bastards should still have to take delivery of the oil they have purchased futures on... deliver it to the courthouse. Oil was already down about 5% today.
 
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Everyone in my office has been watching this all day. I guess I do not get the fixation. When I invest, it's for the long term. I am giving a company some money so they can hopefully grow. I do not expect this to happen in 24 hours, a week, a month, maybe a year.

Not busting on you Gary, just wondering why folks watch this by the hour like they do. It's my opinion this fixation, speculation and obsession is the demise of the stock market. Let it do what it was designed to do 80+ years ago. If I loan someone $100 so they can do something, hoping I make $110 in return, I do not ask them for the money back in 1 day.

Just my 02 cents.
 
I'd like to know why oil is down around 40% from it's high, yet my gas at the local station is down from a high of $3.99 to currently $3.59 (it was $3.51 yesterday). According to my calculator, 40% off of $3.99 is $2.39.
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i dont think the calculations are that simple. one analyst said that the last time oil was at or below $100/barrell, prices at the pump (national average) were $3.00. prices hadnt fallen to that level prior to Ike and wont for a bit longer. despite the huge profits realized by the oil industry, their profit margin was smaller than it had traditionally been b/c they realized they couldnt sell gasoline for $6/gallon. we've all heard that, when adjusted for inflation, $3/gallon gasoline is not far off from the $1 we paid in 1980.

this site has some very interesting graphs. of particular interest is the price per barrel (1947 to present) in 2007 dollars and the US consumption from 1973 til present. bottom line is that "big overweight greedy carbon-belching america" consumes the same amount of oil as it did in 1973. if you listen to al gore, michael moore and the hollywood flakes, you'd think we were getting worse and worse each and every year. let's give ourselves some credit - conservation, more fuel efficient vehicles and appliances have all helped control our thirst for oil, despite the population boom and families having 2 cars, 5 tv's, electronics that are "always on," a summer house, gas guzzling boat or RV, etc, etc.

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
 
Listening to how these rat bastards leveraged every dollar they had by 30 to 1 and then buying things like mortgages as well as loads and loads of OIL futures is amazing. Now that all of Lehman's "assets" have to be unwound like yesterday by a trustee, these assets are going to tank. One guy on CNBC stated he expects oil to hit down near $70. Things like steel, corn, etc are all going down....

Can you imagine the public's reaction if the Fed bailed Lehman out when a good chunk of the crap they had was responsible for the rise of oil and such?

Let em fail.... $1.50 diesel by next summer. Of course I won't have any money left to buy any but still...
 
Not a good day for me to own Bank of America.
 
Four Suns said:
Listening to how these rat bastards leveraged every dollar they had by 30 to 1 and then buying things like mortgages as well as loads and loads of OIL futures is amazing. Now that all of Lehman's "assets" have to be unwound like yesterday by a trustee, these assets are going to tank. One guy on CNBC stated he expects oil to hit down near $70. Things like steel, corn, etc are all going down....

Can you imagine the public's reaction if the Fed bailed Lehman out when a good chunk of the crap they had was responsible for the rise of oil and such?

Let em fail.... $1.50 diesel by next summer. Of course I won't have any money left to buy any but still...
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Hey if things get bad for you maybe you'd consider renting out a stateroom. I wouldn't mind spending a month running the Maine coast next summer.
 
Four Suns said:
Listening to how these rat bastards leveraged every dollar they had by 30 to 1 and then buying things like mortgages as well as loads and loads of OIL futures is amazing. Now that all of Lehman's "assets" have to be unwound like yesterday by a trustee, these assets are going to tank. One guy on CNBC stated he expects oil to hit down near $70. Things like steel, corn, etc are all going down....

Can you imagine the public's reaction if the Fed bailed Lehman out when a good chunk of the crap they had was responsible for the rise of oil and such?

Let em fail.... $1.50 diesel by next summer. Of course I won't have any money left to buy any but still...
Click to expand...

After spending the day reading quite a few news articles on Lehman's demise, I am pretty much with you Gary. And it's likely the executives who ran that company won't even have any consequences to pay unlike executives of companies such as Enron. And I really don't see any differences in terms of accountability either.

My so called conservative and safe portfolio that I rely on to live doesn't look so good anymore and I really am not sure what to do about it. It's one thing if you work and have some income from your job or business for your living expenses. It's quite another thing when you have reached retirement age like me and are literally expecting the rug to be ripped out from under your feet at any time.
:smt009:smt009
 
Dave S said:
After spending the day reading quite a few news articles on Lehman's demise, I am pretty much with you Gary. And it's likely the executives who ran that company won't even have any consequences to pay unlike executives of companies such as Enron. And I really don't see any differences in terms of accountability either.

My so called conservative and safe portfolio that I rely on to live doesn't look so good anymore and I really am not sure what to do about it. It's one thing if you work and have some income from your job or business for your living expenses. It's quite another thing when you have reached retirement age like me and are literally expecting the rug to be ripped out from under your feet at any time.
:smt009:smt009
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If things got real bad for me I'd let the kids take care of me. Only problem is that I'm still helping them. Hello, my name is Woody, I'm here with the pizza you ordered. WOW, I've only been joking about the pizza delivery thing up until now. I don't even like pizza.
 
I think someone needs to go to jail. All I want the government to do is deliver me a scapegoat or two.
 
I'm sure they could come up with a couple scapegoats while the real culprits relax in S.America. You gotta take some deep breaths right now, sounds like you'd be the one going to jail if a Lehman Exec was within reach.
 
With the stocks tanking and no safe haven in sight, does this finally make boating a sound investment? So far this year the retirement portfolio has probably lost more than the boat has lost value.
 
jrirvine1 said:
With the stocks tanking and no safe haven in sight, does this finally make boating a sound investment? So far this year the retirement portfolio has probably lost more than the boat has lost value.
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That's what I was trying to say earlier with my comment of "Should have bought a bigger boat" and someone left me a negative rep with a comment of "you're an idiot" or something... but you are right.
 
Damn. Way back in May I posted:
1)
"What do you thing goldman saks is going to do with all of those $136 contracts that nobody wants? Hope they go "Bear Sterns" with no taxpayer induced bail out. Down in flames, boys. Down in flames."

OK so it was Lehman and Merrill. But the fat lady has not sung her song, yet.

2)
"...here's hoping that the commodities speculators get what they deserve."
Well, they are, they are!

3)
"The lowest price any analyst has suggested is $40/bbl. I'm not signing on to that one. Most likely is $70-80/bbl."
I'm sticking with those numbers. They are looking better all the time.

4)
"The crude price is being driven by the crappy dollar value and especially speculation. What the chart shows is that a lot of speculators might be taking a really, really big @#$ blood bath."
More blood to come, I'm sure.


Even further back in April
5)
"There are a lot of funds that have been moved from the stock market to the commodities market. These guys keep watching the price of oil going up, and they want a piece of that action, so they buy in and watch the price go up some more. But is that price justified by demand? Analysts don't think so. As refineries use up their current contracted deliveries of crude, they'll have to buy more. As the price of fuel increases, demand decreases, also as the economy cools, so does demand. So when the refineries don't buy as much as high priced crude, who will? When there are a bunch of sellers and not so many buyers, any guesses about the price? The speculators will lose their shirts, again."

Looks like nobody. Except those guys buying cut-rate contracts from Lehman. Pennies on the dollar, boys?

Of course, I screwed this one up back in March
6)
"Some time around mid summer :( prices will start to decline as the commodities market tries to take some profit and head off a beating. With the economic slowdown, other investments will be more attractive and the traders will move their dollars out of oil and into something else."

I assumed that they actually wanted to make a profit! Who could have guessed that the stupid, greedy bastards (note the lower case b, as directed by Matt) wanted to take huge losses instead?

Best regards,
Frank C
 
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For once my timing wasn't too bad...I am in the process of moving my 401k from my previous employer's plan to my new employer's plan. Right now, the check transferring my money is sitting here in front of me. I think I'll wait as long as possible to deposit it to the new plan...
 
jrirvine1 said:
With the stocks tanking and no safe haven in sight, does this finally make boating a sound investment? So far this year the retirement portfolio has probably lost more than the boat has lost value.
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My sentiments exactly. Last winter I thought my investments were doing poorly so I figured that it was a good time to spend the money on a boat. I may as well enjoy the Sea Ray even though it devalues, rather than let a fund manager lose my money for me.

Haven't regretted the decision at all.
 
mrsrobinson said:
Everyone in my office has been watching this all day. I guess I do not get the fixation. When I invest, it's for the long term. I am giving a company some money so they can hopefully grow. I do not expect this to happen in 24 hours, a week, a month, maybe a year.

Not busting on you Gary, just wondering why folks watch this by the hour like they do. It's my opinion this fixation, speculation and obsession is the demise of the stock market. Let it do what it was designed to do 80+ years ago. If I loan someone $100 so they can do something, hoping I make $110 in return, I do not ask them for the money back in 1 day.

Just my 02 cents.
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I do not watch it everyday, but lets say you had deposited $100,000.00 two years ago and had checked about every three to four months, tried different diversification methods (even professional investment management), and this $100,000.00 was now only $80,000.00. Giving the way the economy is, this election fiasco coming up, just where do you think the market is going to go? When two, three years? One might be lucky to be back to their $100,000.00. So the markets do not look good, and I would say they would not be for quite sometime. :huh:

So try applying the Rule of 72 in today’s market and see how long your investment will take

Rule of 72

Just my nickel for inflation
 
So that's it...bypass the 40 footer, go right to the 50 footers and stop saving so much for retirement.....sweet, now I have a justifiable excuse.
 
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