Is a nuclear-armed Iraq acceptable?

[tobnpr]

So, Iran has yet again blown-off the rest of the world. I don't know about the rest of you, but I almost feel a sense of emabrassment at this point for our country. It's become almost ridiculous, the West keeps saying pretty please, and Iran says "Make Me."

It boils down to a simple question- Can "we" allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon?
There is no "maybe"- it's "yes" or "no".
How real is the threat?
To me, pretty damn real. I think they'd have no problem handing one over to Hezbollah...

If this Administration feels this isn't a real threat- they've really got their heads up their azzes. Is it enough of a threat to begin yet another military conflict and put our soldiers in harm's way?

If they do feel it's a threat- do they have the balls to do something about it? I believe this threat is FAR worse than anything else in terms of our national security- dwarfing Afghanistan and the Taliban.

John Bolton says that sanctions will not work (in time) and to be effective, military force needs to be used sooner rather than later. Anyone care to guess as to what the outcome of this will be?

 

[comsnark]

My thoughts;

1) Iran not interested in resolution. They are interested in bolstering their image, both domestically and abroad.

2) Nuke Development will lead to testing. Iran not crazy enough to give to hezbolah (sp). Reason (a): Isreal. (b) US would respond to actualluse -> with uncomfortably significant force. (The American response to Afganistan should be instructive) (logic does not apply to N. Korea => They are bat poop crazy, which Iran is not)

3) Obama will push the sanctions route. This path will fail for the following reasons;
a) See (1) above.
b) Russia and China will help it fail.
c) Inadequate time remains unless the sanctions are so draconian that even the EU won't support them.

4) Politically, nothing militarily can happen without diplomacy first. One can say (I would) that until this year, NOTHING has been done politically. Now some things (enough to appease world opinion?) have been done. The US is in no postition to do anything without some world support. Not after Iraq.

5) Obama's next step: Useless to predict today. Ask tomorrow, once I know what he is thinking on Afganistan.
My useless prediction: Middle road on Afganistan: Small increase in troop levels, with lots of mumbling but no real strategy. Which also means that he will not commit to major military action to Iran.
Signs we have a real Afganistan strategy: Pakistan's border problem will be addressed (probably in ways Pakistan does not like)
Testosterone alternative: The reason Obama has vacillated on Afganistan is because he is fundamentally shifting emphasis from Afganistan to Iran. He will note that Iran sits between Iraq and Afganistan. He announces "strong pessimism" in the earlier diplomatic route, which he championed right up to the point it failed.
Probability of Testosterone alternative: Somewhere between slim and none.

5) Presuming a useless Afganistan strategy: Iran will do what it will, with some scrawny sanctions in place. The rest depends on US and Isreali politics:
(a) Probability of Testosterone alternative will increase with Obama's political fortunes. If the economy sucks wind, then the Republicans will win next fall and Obama's hands will be tied by an obstructionist Congress. If the economy picks up, then the Democrats are strengthened, enhancing political leverage abroad and the US will be *financially* in better shape for military option.
(b) Isreal is a wildcard.

5) Realistically, I see no military option unless we have a NeoCon Republican administration in the white house. 2012 is a long way off. Frankly, the only time the US could have done something in Iran politically was between 2002 and 2006. Essentially, the US chose to pick ONE of the THREE countries in the Axis of Evil to address.

So. . .you think we picked the right one to enforce regime change upon?

6) Is a nuclear armed Iran the end of the world? Doubt it. Pakistan and India seem to be doing ok (Relatively speaking). They have fought SEVERAL wars in the last 50 years. Probably would push up oil prices. That would help US alternative energy efforts, right?


It's chilly again tonight. I will crawl back under my rock and let the flames keep me warm

 

[JV II]

Anyone care to guess as to what the outcome of this will be?

A nuclear armed Iraq? Balance the scales. Have the two I's war it out with nukes.

 

[Henry Boyd]

Comsnark,

Pretty good analysis. Except you missed the cultural points. Although the geographical location known as Iraq goes back to the beginning of mankind, the present population are basically goat herders who have moved in in the past few hundred years.

Afghanistan is one of the few countries in recent history who can claim they militarily have vanquished both the British and Soviet empires. I haven't fully researched it , but it wouldn't surprise me that Britain's experience in Afghanistan lead to much of the formulation for the creation of the Commandos in WWII. These people just want to be left alone to live in their stone huts, and they will do whatever it takes to be left alone.

And now to Iran, or rather Persia, as they prefer to think of themselves. World conquerors of the same stature of Greece and Rome. I spent a short bit of time in Tehran in the 70s during the Shah. Even with religion, the thought of these people with the bomb scares the s__t out of me just because they have a national desire to prove to the world they are just as good as their ancestors. In my opinion the reason why we have failed for the past several decades in our foreign policy with Iran is that we treat them (accurately) as the goat herding clowns they are, and not as the world leaders they think they are.

Henry

 

[comsnark]

Henry;

Not sure that I disagree with anything you have said.

 

[sprink56]

I see it this way:

• Step 1: Pickens plan on foreign oil...convert to domestic natural gas...stop sucking up the seat covers every time any one farts in the Mid-East.
• Step 2: Give Israel every thing we can...Planes, tanks a Carrier...whatever.
• Step 3: Screw the sanctions...won't work...waste of time.
• Step 4: Drag the Chinese over to our camp...they depend on us to buy their goods and they don't have squat without us. This will buffer the Russians who are scared shtiless of the Chinese.
• Step 5: Turn Israel loose...it will be over in 30 days...no contest.
• Step 6: UN goes in and does the humanitarian deal and the clean up.

The world economy might hiccup but if we can get our energy source focused back on the US as well as Australia, Europe China, India and Russia...the Mid East can go pound sand.

Let Israel handle this thing in the end. They have more of a vested interest in this than anyone. They handle themselves well...hell...if we had turned them loose in '91 during Gulf War I , we would not have gone back to Iraq in 2003.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[mwph]

Not sure about step 6. Unless we, The U.S., tell The UN to pound sand as well.

Either way. I like it!

............Sprink56 for President!

 

[Redhook98]

I agree almost 100% with Sprink56..... I have been in and out of the Persian Gulf on many occasions and dealt with the people over there for a long time (going 20 years). Their mindset is something that the typical American just can not wrap their minds around. Their values and they way they think of things is significantly different then us as typical Americans do. They truely are a nation of goat-herders who want to play on a world-stage. They understand and react to violence and intimidation, not treaties, sanctions or logic. Case in point.... They see having nuclear arms as their way to the bargaining table in the UN and on the wordl stage instead of break-throughs in technology, medicine or other means.

Did this help the flame war? ;-)

 

[skibum]

+1 to what Sprink said. :thumbsup:

Turn Israel loose to do what they gotta do. Keep an eye on Israel's back while they are at it.

Talk about having the wrong President at the wrong time (not like I could think of any circumstances that would require the lightweight we have in office now). Where are all of the pundits talking about "gravitas"? Didn't that used to be important to them? I guess not when the President is one of their guys and he has absolutely none of it.

 

[320Bob]

I too give a thumbs up to Sprink56's campaign platform with one exception "Step 5: Turn Israel loose...it will be over in 30 days...no contest. Israel essentially mustered at best a tie in the latest skirmish with Hezbollah. Not the fearsome fighting force of the '60's and '70's or the commandos that pulled off the Raid on Entebbe. Clearly they could drop the bomb but can they successfully clean up after that? Just my mildly informed opinion.:huh:

 

[hack4alivin]

Another vote for sprink56…. I would not be surprised at all if it does not come to pass, in fact I’ve been expecting it!

 

[comsnark]

I see it this way:

• Step 4: Drag the Chinese over to our camp...they depend on us to buy their goods and they don't have squat without us. This will buffer the Russians who are scared shtiless of the Chinese.

I wish!

Seriously: Any idea how to make that happen?

Yes. . .we buy Chinese goods, but do you have any idea how to leverage that? Can you IMAGINE the uproar if a Democratic President even contemplated trade sanctions with China? I don't think you could pull that off with a Republican President.

Just sayin'

Talk about having the wrong President at the wrong time (not like I could think of any circumstances that would require the lightweight we have in office now).

ooohh. . .don't lob such a soft ball my way!

In my view, this is a mess that the previous President failed to clean up! BTW: North Korea is a much bigger problem in my mind. Clinton failed to manage it. Bush failed to manage it. Obama is ignoring it (thus failing to manage it)

I too give a thumbs up to Sprink56's campaign platform with one exception "Step 5: Turn Israel loose...it will be over in 30 days...no contest. Israel essentially mustered at best a tie in the latest skirmish with Hezbollah. Not the fearsome fighting force of the '60's and '70's or the commandos that pulled off the Raid on Entebbe. Clearly they could drop the bomb but can they successfully clean up after that? Just my mildly informed opinion.:huh:

The problem with Israel's latest endeavors is the same problem the U.S. had in Iraq: No plan past the first 72 hours.

Anything we do should have a *valid* plan a bit more realistic than "They will cheer as we march down the streets". That, unfortunately, is becoming a common theme.

 

[tobnpr]

Israel essentially mustered at best a tie in the latest skirmish with Hezbollah. Not the fearsome fighting force of the '60's and '70's or the commandos that pulled off the Raid on Entebbe.

Not a fair comparison.
You forget that Hezbollah, with their "guerilla" warfare, wear civilian clothes, hide their wimpy punk faces behind masks (because they're afraid of getting hit by a drone missile), and surround themselves with women and children when fighting. Yeah, they're "real" soldiers...

If Israel decided not to worry about world opinion (and frankly, I for one think they should do a bit more of that), they would wipe them out so fast it would make the six-day war look like Vietnam. With Iran threatening to "wipe them off the map"- I'm surprised they haven't acted yet.

If we don't, they WILL. Their survival depends on it, and they know it. Those crazy theocrats in Iran could care less knowing they'd be incinerated as well. After all, they've got all those hot virgins waiting for them.

 

[JV II]

Those crazy theocrats in Iran could care less knowing they'd be incinerated as well. After all, they've got all those hot virgins waiting for them.

See, I never understood that. There are plenty of hot virgins here, so why go somewhere else to get at them? Will the strict rules of the religion be lifted in the promised land and therby free them of sexual oppression? Is it that the present day virgins are not attracted to them because of their anger? Are they like the geeky kid in high school who couldn't get a date? The virgins always seems to be the motivation. All of the hijackers and other muslim extremist killers have been linked to strip clubs. It's got to be really bad here on earth for them. Don't they have dating websites? There has to be a better solution. Why hasn't someone addressed this issue?

 

[comsnark]

Are they like the geeky kid in high school who couldn't get a date?

The dirty secret is that the hot virgins ARE the geeky guys from high school.

:grin:

 

[Daddubo]

Well the way I see it is they think they are going to Heaven but they are actually going to Hell because the 72 Virgins will become 72 nagging wives and if that isn’t Hell I don’t know what it is.