Current state of affairs - anxiety about buying a boat

M

mrsrobinson

Well-Known Member
Mar 9, 2006
7,704
Virginia
Boat Info
2001 380DA
Engines
Caterpillar 3126
I need some of you smart folks to talk me off the ledge, or tell me to jump.

I will be writing a check (cash) for a boat within the next 5 days. I doubled my budget because of "covid" prices, so I was anxious to begin with. It's a lot of money for me.

Inflation, fuel prices are rising, Ukraine/Russia uncertainty, my retirement account is down over 12% and continues to drop: all of this leads me to believe boat owners will start to sell (especially the covid buyers/owners) and/or hold off on a purchase, which could mean I own a boat in 3+ months that's worth 20 - 50% less what I paid for it.

Call it the revere wealth effect if you will.

I am feeling anxious about this purchase now and considering walking away and keeping my cash under my mattress.

Please, no "You are under contract, don't renege..." comments, "You are an a-hole if you walk away"... "You are <insert judgement here> this..."

I simply want to hear from those who may have been here before in the past, or now, and hear your thoughts.


Thanks
 
My offer was accepted on my boat the beginning of march 2020, right as markets were crashing.
I won't pretend to know your finances, none of my business.

You have been hunting for a while and it seems you've found the boat you want. In 3 months, could it be cheaper? Sure, maybe. It's a coin toss. Are you prepared to start your search all over again if this boat is gone in 3 months time? What is all the time you have invested worth? Also, *IF* you are financing your purchase, rates will likely be higher, ie more expensive boat payment.

Just food for thought. Wishing you good luck in whatever you decide.
 
I'd bounce - you will have your pick of boats in 6 months or so for 30-50% less money. You have waffled so much on this whole process and looked for excuses at every possible step to not do this.....you are trying to tell yourself something - LISTEN -

I have a build spot for delivery in summer '23 at a great price on a performance cc.....i figure by spring of '23 (when I would need to commit) there will likely be a flooded market of used boats to choose from instead.....at half the price.
 
Shaps said:
My offer was accepted on my boat the beginning of march 2020, right as markets were crashing.
I won't pretend to know your finances, none of my business.

You have been hunting for a while and it seems you've found the boat you want. In 3 months, could it be cheaper? Sure, maybe. It's a coin toss. Are you prepared to start your search all over again if this boat is gone in 3 months time? What is all the time you have invested worth? Also, *IF* you are financing your purchase, rates will likely be higher, ie more expensive boat payment.

Just food for thought. Wishing you good luck in whatever you decide.
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Yeah, good feedback. I have developed a friendship with a broker in the area who knows me well. As he put it "get your damn boat and enjoy it, it's a rare diesel boat that will not decrease in value anytime soon".

I decided to pay cash, a long time ago, I think that is what's bothering me the most, giving up that much cash with everything that's going on in the world, and being 55 years old, close to retirement.

Ididntdoit said:
I'd bounce - you will have your pick of boats in 6 months or so for 30-50% less money. You have waffled so much on this whole process and looked for excuses at every possible step to not do this.....you are trying to tell yourself something - LISTEN -

I have a build spot for delivery in summer '23 at a great price on a performance cc.....i figure by spring of '23 (when I would need to commit) there will likely be a flooded market of used boats to choose from instead.....at half the price.
Click to expand...

But, at 55 years old, and 2+ years boatless, what's waiting going to do for me really? THIS is the boat, I knew it when I walked onto it for the first time, I literally cannot find anything wrong with it that's a deal breaker.

Based on your comment will you walk on your summer 23 if prices have reduced by 50%? Not being sarcastic, seriously asking.
 
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A lot of factors to consider for sure, but in the end, your the only one with enough knowledge of your finances to really make a good decision. I think we are in for some rougher times in the near term, but longer term, it all tends to sort out. Just depends on your timeframe.

As far as depreciation, yes you'll likely take some, but I don't see prices coming down, particularly yours, its very desirable and will likely be so for a while. They might modrate a little. Plus you've already spent considerable time and money to get to this point. Unless you have a Force Majeure clause, the buyer may keep your deposit, so its not likely free to back out either. I'd do a spread sheet or what it would cost to proceed, vs back out. Decide what your can tolerate.

One thing I've come to realize is my time is worth more than my money. I want to do and enjoy life now (as well as responsibly plan for the future), because if you dont do it now, the when? Life is short.
 
dtfeld said:
A lot of factors to consider for sure, but in the end, your the only one with enough knowledge of your finances to really make a good decision. I think we are in for some rougher times in the near term, but longer term, it all tends to sort out. Just depends on your timeframe.

As far as depreciation, yes you'll likely take some, but I don't see prices coming down, particularly yours, its very desirable and will likely be so for a while. They might modrate a little. Plus you've already spent considerable time and money to get to this point. Unless you have a Force Majeure clause, the buyer may keep your deposit, so its not likely free to back out either. I'd do a spread sheet or what it would cost to proceed, vs back out. Decide what your can tolerate.

One thing I've come to realize is my time is worth more than my money. I want to do and enjoy life now (as well as responsibly plan for the future), because if you dont do it now, the when? Life is short.
Click to expand...

Well said, thanks
 
I agree with ididntdoit. I'd walk for a season, especially if it meant tightening my belt. I'm not too much younger than you. However, your retirement account should recover, and the boat value will depreciate over time (most likely) anyway, so if you can afford it, go for it. Like how I answered both ways for you?
 
My finance guys tells me to buy as well, and even with the purchase I have a 99% probably of success to be able to retire as planned, have the funds as planned each year for the rest of my life.

In case you folks have not picked up on this, I am conservative with my $$$, risk adverse, and will beat a large purchase to death until I feel good about it.
 
mrsrobinson said:
Yeah, good feedback. I have developed a friendship with a broker in the area who knows me well. As he put it "get your damn boat and enjoy it, it's a rare diesel boat that will not decrease in value anytime soon".

I decided to pay cash, a long time ago, I think that is what's bothering me the most, giving up that much cash with everything that's going on in the world, and being 55 years old, close to retirement.



But, at 55 years old, and 2+ years boatless, what's waiting going to do for me really? THIS is the boat, I knew it when I walked onto it for the first time, I literally cannot find anything wrong with it that's a deal breaker.

Based on your comment will you walk on your summer 23 if prices have reduced by 50%? Not being sarcastic, seriously asking.
Click to expand...

You thought THIS was the boat on several, smaller gas powered boats as well....some you just walked away from because the owner or broker was a dick or the bost was too far away......and yes, im prepared to walk away from my deal - like you, im getting too old to continue to earn my way out of bad decisions - in 2008 I watched the value of my 300DA cut in half over the course of a few months - it took nearly 15yrs and a quaranteen/free money perfect storm for it to come back - covid's over and money will be getting hard to come by and expensive for the average boat buyer - this WILL drive boat prices down - more people selling than buying - $8/gal fuel and eveything that goes with it is around the corner....boats (and all toys) will be on sale soon - especially for a cash buyer
 
mrsrobinson said:
My finance guys tells me to buy as well, and even with the purchase I have a 99% probably of success to be able to retire as planned, have the funds as planned each year for the rest of my life.

In case you folks have not picked up on this, I am conservative with my $$$, risk adverse, and will beat a large purchase to death until I feel good about it.
Click to expand...
Hey - if you have "fuck you" money and can afford to burn some - by all means go for it
 
Ididntdoit said:
You thought THIS was the boat on several, smaller gas powered boats as well....some you just walked away from because the owner or broker was a dick or the bost was too far away......
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Not quite true. All of the boats I was either under contract on or close to a contract had issues, either mechanical, systems, structural, or all of the above, that the sellers would not recognize and/or address. And in all of the cases I offered a compromise, negotiated with myself, when they would not.

I understand your point though.
 
Given the average male life expectancy in the US is like 79 years old and watching my parents and in-laws in their 70's struggle with boating. They both owned bigger boats. You have about 15 summers to enjoy this in theory. I am generalizing and you know your health and finances. I bought my boat new in 2007 and then the market tanked. Did I second guess myself for 5 years - yes. But owning my own business that struggled during that recession. It was a nice getaway. I don't see my boat dropping 50% in the next year. The supply chain is so messed up and people are still spending money. A boat is not an investment it is a hobby. It will drop no matter what. My guess is 20 to 25% over the next few years - but that is because I have followed the value of mine during a downturn and upside. Good luck with your decision. The nice boats are usually not the first to go during a downturn.
 
I bought last fall and I'd still do it. I lost 2 years of my life to the shut down and I'm not about to worry about the economy taking what will likely be a temporary downturn. No monthly note to be concerned with. The money could be sitting in the bank or floating in the marina. I don't get all giddy about looking at a bank balance. I'd much rather be hanging out with the boat.
@mrsrobinson as someone that only knows you by your posts, I have you pegged as a worry wart which I'm afraid you'll give yourself a stroke with all of your "what ifs". Maybe I'm reading you wrong. I hope I am. I've lived with the Alfred E Newman motto as much as possible.
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I'd 100% proceed with your purchase. You only live once. I think it's crazy talk to think boat prices will dramatically drop this year. There's zero inventory, pent up demand, gas prices...ppfffft.

I'd personally keep the cash and ask the bank to fund this purchase, however. Even in a down market. 3% on a boat loan? It's like free money.
 
Little Ducky said:
Why pay cash? Unless it's a 10K run about.

Finance that thing and enjoy it paying out 4-5% or so.

When we are trying to survive after a nuclear war you will have the cash under the mattress to bargain with.
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Damn...you just barely beat me to it!

Helmets on for safety...the fragging from the "never finance a toy" crowd shall commence shortly. :)
 
I think without question the pricing will drop to whatever normal levels should be. How long that will be is the only question in my mind. I have some friends in the boat brokerage business. They feel prices have peaked and they are seeing some boats that they sold within the last 2 years come back on the market. Many people who just jumped into boating had no idea what it costs to maintain and run these things. Some of them were not financially prepared for that. They thought of it like a car. Payment plus insurance plus gas. I can afford that so let's get it. Then they find out it may cost them 30k to maintain the thing every year and then it's holy shit time. I only mention this because when these people start bailing out and flooding the market with boats, prices undoubtedly will plunge. It's supply and demand. Demand is driving prices up and when supply exceeds demand, down they go.
 
ENstig8or said:
I think without question the pricing will drop to whatever normal levels should be. How long that will be is the only question in my mind. I have some friends in the boat brokerage business. They feel prices have peaked and they are seeing some boats that they sold within the last 2 years come back on the market. Many people who just jumped into boating had no idea what it costs to maintain and run these things. Some of them were not financially prepared for that. They thought of it like a car. Payment plus insurance plus gas. I can afford that so let's get it. Then they find out it may cost them 30k to maintain the thing every year and then it's holy shit time. I only mention this because when these people start bailing out and flooding the market with boats, prices undoubtedly will plunge. It's supply and demand. Demand is driving prices up and when supply exceeds demand, down they go.
Click to expand...

I think you have to segment the boat market a bit with this type of logic. I tend to think the people that "dove in" to boating while flush with cash in 2020/2021, with zero boating experience, were mostly buying the ski boats, bowriders, CC's and the like. Jumping straight into 35'+ cruisers? Hmmm...

I think the cruiser market has been more impacted by many folks up-sizing because they had more cash in their accounts and had a new level of flexibility in their work schedules. At this point I assume most of our accounts are shrinking but this whole "work from home" thing is not going away very quickly. I think the professionals that bought up the cruisers are going to hold. They knew what they were getting into. And they call it "the office" 3 days a week now :)

My two cents only of course.
 
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