What a positive COVID-19 test REALLY means

[CaptRonn]

I have been following the numbers since day one, and have come to this conclusion. Agree or disagree, this is my perspective
You are probably not going to catch the virus. (Even with the recent "spike" in cases it is still affecting a small percentage of the population.
If you do catch the virus (ie: test positive), you are probably not going to be hospitalized. Small number compared to cases.
If you do go to the hospital, you are probably not going to die. The most under-reported number in this whole "pandemic" is the recovery rate, (97-99%, just googled it). So it's not a death sentence....
And if you are lucky enough to be relatively healthy with few or no co-morbidities the odds get even better.
We were told when this started millions were going to die, this summer. They havent, then it was hundreds of thousands. Not yet, and this is with counting anyone who died and was found to have the infection (with COVID) and those who died of COVID, that really exagerates the number of deaths.
So we all need to take a breath, realize it's not that bad, and we we will get past this.
Change my mind.

Here's my concern, Pandora's Box has already been opened.

And by that, it's now realized to bring a country to it's knees, bring the economy to a screeching halt, all that has to happen is have a "pandemic" in which models are presented waging doom and gloom, millions of deaths, hospitals over flowing, dogs sleeping with cats, etc, etc.

Only a few have access to the information, the facts. And it's an invisible enemy, which makes it scarier.

Throw in a compliant media, add in some incompetent bureaucrats, have a few governors move infected people into an area of the most vulnerable, then have a lot of deaths start to happen.

Then when it is on it's way down, start manipulating the numbers with cases, which sounds real scary. Continue fear mongering that any day, any day, bodies will start piling up in the streets. Throw in more career bureaucrats exclaiming this is the new normal, and we will stay this way until there is a vaccine and the virus is totally eliminated.

For decades we have heard about climate change, global warming, global cooling, new ice age, man made global warming and man made climate change, yet it really never moved the meter one way or the other. Use the same rhetoric of man made climate change, but substitute the word virus, and it almost reads identical.

And by using virus the results didn't take decades, it took two weeks. And here we are months later still under the oppression with uninformed politicians and bureaucrats making decisions not based on science, but politics and an agenda.

 

[JimT]

Can someone explain the significance of the percentage of positive test stat that is thrown around every day? Testing is still limited to people in certain high risk categories, ie contact with an infected person, works in a high risk area, participated in riots, demonstrates symptoms, etc. So we are testing folks who are more at risk than the general population. So why is the percent of positive tests significant? If we were testing everyone I would get it as the percent of positive would indicate the percent of infection in the overall population. Percent of positive in a high risk pool means nothing except that screening of applicants is flawed or at least inconsistent.

 

[Henry Boyd]

Testing is starting to be available for anyone that wants it and not just those who show symptoms. In Mass there are a number of locations that will test without a doctor’s referral or prescription. This is because a number of companies are requiring individuals be tested before returning to work.

 

[El Capitan]

You did, but the argument does not hold water. There are any number of illnesses that can kill, and can be passed from human to human (ie: the seasonal flu)...and we have never tested for them. But we are for this virus. Also no one has answered how frequently and for how long we test. A test, and the associated result is a snapshot of that instant. The minute you are tested, regardless of the result, it can change you could have a negative test, and go out and catch the virus. Now what? You already teste negative. Or better, you never get tested and go on with your life. But testing for the sake of testing is not helpful. If you go to a hospital because you are sick, or having a procedure, sure, test. If you work in health care, sure, test. But I don't see how widespread screening of the population at large helps in any way shape of form. Unless we test everyone, everyday, forever.

If you’d do some reading you’d know the answers to your ignorance.

Here. Don’t say I never edumacated you. Testing of patient who is positive is repeated every 2-3 days until patient test negative which means virus is dormant and you no longer can infect others. This can take 2 weeks to over 2 months.

 

[Golfman25]

Can someone explain the significance of the percentage of positive test stat that is thrown around every day? Testing is still limited to people in certain high risk categories, ie contact with an infected person, works in a high risk area, participated in riots, demonstrates symptoms, etc. So we are testing folks who are more at risk than the general population. So why is the percent of positive tests significant? If we were testing everyone I would get it as the percent of positive would indicate the percent of infection in the overall population. Percent of positive in a high risk pool means nothing except that screening of applicants is flawed or at least inconsistent.

So that's the thing. The pool is changing. We used to test only those with symptoms and in many places only those heading toward the hospital. We have now opened up testing to test anyone. Well we are seeing a increased positivity, but we are also seeing an increase of asymptomatic cases. We need to know how may people who test positive are asymptomatic to make any real judgments on the numbers. That number doesn't seem to be available.

 

[El Capitan]

Can someone explain the significance of the percentage of positive test stat that is thrown around every day? Testing is still limited to people in certain high risk categories, ie contact with an infected person, works in a high risk area, participated in riots, demonstrates symptoms, etc. So we are testing folks who are more at risk than the general population. So why is the percent of positive tests significant? If we were testing everyone I would get it as the percent of positive would indicate the percent of infection in the overall population. Percent of positive in a high risk pool means nothing except that screening of applicants is flawed or at least inconsistent.

Anyone who requests testing can be tested.
Some employers are requiring employees to test prior to returning to work ie meat packing, cruise lines, etc.

 

[Woody]

Can someone explain the significance of the percentage of positive test stat that is thrown around every day? Testing is still limited to people in certain high risk categories, ie contact with an infected person, works in a high risk area, participated in riots, demonstrates symptoms, etc. So we are testing folks who are more at risk than the general population. So why is the percent of positive tests significant? If we were testing everyone I would get it as the percent of positive would indicate the percent of infection in the overall population. Percent of positive in a high risk pool means nothing except that screening of applicants is flawed or at least inconsistent.

Here's a list of testing sites in NC, there are others but I didn't look for them. https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/abohttps...sting/find-my-testing-place/pop-testing-sites

 

[JimT]

Ok, so let's assume testing is available to anyone who wants one. Did you see the cars lined up in Miami this morning? They were wrapped around the block hours before the testing site was to open. This is happening in many "hot spot" areas. No sane person without symptoms is going to sit in line all day for a test unless they are experiencing symptoms or required to do so by an employer. So we are back to the sample group not being representative of the population so what does the percent positive really tell us?

 

[Henry Boyd]

Ok, so let's assume testing is available to anyone who wants one. Did you see the cars lined up in Miami this morning? They were wrapped around the block hours before the testing site was to open. This is happening in many "hot spot" areas. No sane person without symptoms is going to sit in line all day for a test unless they are experiencing symptoms or required to do so by an employer. So we are back to the sample group not being representative of the population so what does the percent positive really tell us?

Right under the conditions where cases are ramping up, but that’s not the condition everywhere, and getting tested can be done on the next trip to CVS. My wife and I are planning a boat trip to Maine this summer and will get tests done at the local CVS a little before we go. Maine doesn’t require a quarantine if you have a recent negative test.

As far as the numbers go, until millions more tests are done test data will only be indicative from a statistical perspective, but is helpful to the medical profession as it suggests areas to study.

 

[Woody]

Ok, so let's assume testing is available to anyone who wants one. Did you see the cars lined up in Miami this morning? They were wrapped around the block hours before the testing site was to open. This is happening in many "hot spot" areas. No sane person without symptoms is going to sit in line all day for a test unless they are experiencing symptoms or required to do so by an employer. So we are back to the sample group not being representative of the population so what does the percent positive really tell us?

I'm not sure that's a fair assumption. There are a lot of folks that would like to know if they are carrying the virus and have been spreading it around. They also are trying to be part of their community snapshot, at a point in time, how badly is our community infected? Pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, or asymptomatic....they all can spread the virus.

 

[El Capitan]

Ok, so let's assume testing is available to anyone who wants one. Did you see the cars lined up in Miami this morning? They were wrapped around the block hours before the testing site was to open. This is happening in many "hot spot" areas. No sane person without symptoms is going to sit in line all day for a test unless they are experiencing symptoms or required to do so by an employer. So we are back to the sample group not being representative of the population so what does the percent positive really tell us?

Too many assumptions and speculation to draw any meaningful conclusions from your scenario.

There are a lot of scared cattle eh...people out there. Anyone who is concerned about infecting a family member because they suspect they've been exposed or they know they went out and didn't socially distance and is concerned is able to get tested.

This is the more plausible speculation given the negative media coverage of Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Note, nada about NJ, NY, CT where the numbers are off the charts in fatalities.

 

[Golfman25]

Ok, so let's assume testing is available to anyone who wants one. Did you see the cars lined up in Miami this morning? They were wrapped around the block hours before the testing site was to open. This is happening in many "hot spot" areas. No sane person without symptoms is going to sit in line all day for a test unless they are experiencing symptoms or required to do so by an employer. So we are back to the sample group not being representative of the population so what does the percent positive really tell us?

They told everyone who attended a protest to "go get tested." Is that what we are seeing in these areas?

I can say once you find out you have been exposed to someone, the "symptoms" kick in. You think every sniffle is the covid and you're dying. It's either wait two weeks to find out or sit in line for a day. I sat in line for a few hours to get tested. Not sure I would have waited in line the night before.

 

[MonacoMike]

Since you don’t believe the people in public health, why don’t you look it up. You’re an adult, you can read. It’s not too hard to find.

I am mystified how you can seriously say this is political and refuse to listen to the scientists and doctors on the corona Virus task force. All of whom serve at the pleasure of the President, a man who certainly has zero Democratic Party leaning. The President has no problem firing people who don’t agree with the administration, and certainly has not shown any concerns for the opinions of his political opponents when firing subordinates. Could it be that while he may not like what his scientists and doctors say, he thinks they are right?

You say that testing is useless, but by his own statements, the President and those around him, are tested on what may well be a daily basis. If useless why spend the time and effort to test?

"Since you don’t believe the people in public health, why don’t you look it up. You’re an adult, you can read. It’s not too hard to find."

You know there is NO C-19 specific peer reviewed research. If so post a link.

"I am mystified how you can seriously say this is political and refuse to listen to the scientists and doctors on the corona Virus task force. "

You mean the same ones that changed their story under political pressure? Sure just go with whatever they say today. LOL!!!

It has been proven in court several times that the actions taken had no scientific basis and were knocked down.

 

[Henry Boyd]

"Since you don’t believe the people in public health, why don’t you look it up. You’re an adult, you can read. It’s not too hard to find."

You know there is NO C-19 specific peer reviewed research. If so post a link.

"I am mystified how you can seriously say this is political and refuse to listen to the scientists and doctors on the corona Virus task force. "

You mean the same ones that changed their story under political pressure? Sure just go with whatever they say today. LOL!!!

It has been proven in court several times that the actions taken had no scientific basis and were knocked down.

Blah, blah blah. You don’t want a discussion, or have any interest in scientific analysis. You’ve already made up your mind up and just want to spout off. What you’re really looking for is someone to validate your cockamamie ideas.

If you really wanted a scientific response, you would understand that when dealing with the unknown, conclusions change as the facts change and more is learned. It’s called the scientific method.

By your thinking, on day one everything that was known about the corona virus was written in stone and can’t change. Considering virtually nothing was known at that point you would rather still know nothing, than accept that change is the very nature of learning.

 

[Creekwood]

Too many assumptions and speculation to draw any meaningful conclusions from your scenario.

There are a lot of scared cattle eh...people out there. Anyone who is concerned about infecting a family member because they suspect they've been exposed or they know they went out and didn't socially distance and is concerned is able to get tested.

This is the more plausible speculation given the negative media coverage of Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Note, nada about NJ, NY, CT where the numbers are off the charts in fatalities.

So FLorida, Texas and Arizona have skyrocketing new cases of COVID and fatalities increasing too (lagging new cases by 2 to 3 weeks medically). NJ, NY and CT have drastically reduced new cases and the high death rates are historical not current and occurred when their new case curves looked just like Florida Texas and Arizona’s do now. So what is your point?

 

[MonacoMike]

Blah, blah blah. You don’t want a discussion, or have any interest in scientific analysis. You’ve already made up your mind up and just want to spout off. What you’re really looking for is someone to validate your cockamamie ideas.

If you really wanted a scientific response, you would understand that when dealing with the unknown, conclusions change as the facts change and more is learned. It’s called the scientific method.

By your thinking, on day one everything that was known about the corona virus was written in stone and can’t change. Considering virtually nothing was known at that point you would rather still know nothing, than accept that change is the very nature of learning.

Why are you putting words in my mouth I did not say and not answering the question. Because you can't.

Are you really calling the BS that Fauci has spouted "science"? Thanks for proving my point, there are no peer reviewed studies on C-19...

I am out with this comment Henry. Lets go boating my friend...

 

[Henry Boyd]

Why are you putting words in my mouth I did not say and not answering the question. Because you can't.

Are you really calling the BS that Fauci has spouted "science"? Thanks for proving my point, there are no peer reviewed studies on C-19...

I am out with this comment Henry. Lets go boating my friend...

More deflection, ignored buh bye

 

[alnav]

You know there is NO C-19 specific peer reviewed research. If so post a link.

There are by now dozens if not hundreds of peer-reviewed research papers that have been published. Medical journals such as JAMA, NEJM, et al. only publish peer-reviewed articles.

Here's a convenient list of Covid-19 peer-reviewed research compiled by one of the specialist organizations:
COVID-19 Research & Peer-reviewed Publications
https://www.aaos.org/about/covid-19-information-for-our-members/research/

Enjoy.

 

[alnav]

Can someone explain the significance of the percentage of positive test stat that is thrown around every day? Testing is still limited to people in certain high risk categories, ie contact with an infected person, works in a high risk area, participated in riots, demonstrates symptoms, etc. So we are testing folks who are more at risk than the general population. So why is the percent of positive tests significant? If we were testing everyone I would get it as the percent of positive would indicate the percent of infection in the overall population. Percent of positive in a high risk pool means nothing except that screening of applicants is flawed or at least inconsistent.

Here's an explanation from Johns Hopkins:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity
"If a positivity rate is too high, that may indicate that the state is only testing the sickest patients who seek medical attention, and is not casting a wide enough net to know how much of the virus is spreading within its communities. A low rate of positivity in testing data can be seen as a sign that a state has sufficient testing capacity for the size of their outbreak and is testing enough of its population to make informed decisions about reopening."

Another from a Texas newspaper:
https://www.victoriaadvocate.com/co...cle_571c9276-ba50-11ea-b204-f7457e87da45.html
"A state’s positivity rate indicates how many people have tested positive for COVID-19 out of all of those tested. The World Health Organization has set the recommended positivity rate at 5%, meaning that on average, about 5% of people being tested in a given state or country should test positive, if you have an adequate testing supply. In the last seven days, Texas has averaged a 14.9% positivity rate, according to an analysis from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. According to the Johns Hopkins tool, positivity rates can indicate whether a state has adequate testing capacity and whether an increase in cases is the result of expanded testing or increase transmission of the virus."

 

[alnav]

Another huge flaw is those admitted are tested daily (in some areas) and each test is counted as a case, so one person who stays 5 days is counted as 5 cases.

I don't believe this statement is accurate. A "confirmed case" is a person who tests positive for covid. Once a person tests positive, subsequent tests are not counted as new cases.
See https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...out-epidemiology/monitoring-and-tracking.html
Monitoring and tracking the disease
"Having a case definition helps to make sure cases are counted the same way everywhere. In the United States, a confirmed case of COVID-19 is defined as a person who tests positive for the virus that causes COVID-19."

There can also be "probable" cases. They need to meet the criteria here:
https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/conditions/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/case-definition/2020/

Some states were mixing confirmed and probable cases in their data early on. But, this has mostly if not all worked out of the system. For details on how each state is currently reporting and evaluation of the quality of the data, see https://covidtracking.com/data