Shipping containers

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katricol

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Mar 4, 2008
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About 1 1/2 years ago there was a post from a member who had a lot of knowledge about shipping containers and how they related to the economy and future economy. Are you still on this site? I'd be interested in hearing what's going on in your industry. Does anyone remember who it was?
 
There may be someone else, but I think you are referring to Henry Boyd.
 
We bought a decent one, banged up but dry with good floor & doors in June '10 in HOU for dry storage, 40x8x9.5". After the sale the dealer said price in June was 10% higher than Jan '10 due to increase in imports. We built a 30x60 pole barn over it for storage of tractor & implements, construction equipment & tools...still have plenty of room to work in the shade. A man size toy box.
 
I'm a financial advisor (retiring at year end) and have watched the Port of Long Beach web site for a few years. They report the numbers of incoming and outgoing loaded containers as well as empty containers on the ground.

As the numbers of loaded containers (inbound and outbound) go up and down that can (EMPHASIS on "can") signal a shift in the economy and a shift in the number of empty containers on the ground can signal future changes in the economy.

The relationship between the loaded and empty containers also tends to predict future trends.

Did you have specific questions about the numbers?
 
The original discussion got started with an article printed by (as I recall) one of the local Singaporean newspapers about the number of ships at anchor in layup outside of of SP. A suggestion was made by the article that this was the end of the world as we know it. Having done some research in the area I pointed out that this condition was 'normal' being a consequence of vessel ordering patterns that began in the early 2000s, i.e. overcapacity in liner shipping would have existed without the Great Recession.

This month's Fortune has a similar blurb in that it pictures the number of empty containers sitting in the Port of Newark. While it mentions this is a consequence of the 1.8:1 ratio of loaded imported containers to loaded exported containers, it misses the point that the container ship fleet is still at over capacity, but the container fleet is operating at about 98-100% utilization and there is in fact a shortage of containers. In a recent press release, SeaCube (one of the larger container rental firms) noted that last quarter they had an average utilization of 98.2%. Container rental firms supply about 40% of the world fleet. The container (engaged in international shipping) fleet shrank slightly in 2009, but by year end will have reached its pre economic crisis levels of about 24 million TEU. So that tells us that there is as much cargo moving as before the economic meltdown.

Henry
 
Henry, are you saying that the ratio, 1.8:1, is cargo coming in:cargo going out? I would be very surprised if we are exporting that much. I figured it would be 3:1:smt021 with how many production facilities have closed and how much it costs to do business here in these days. Do you know what the number one product we export is?
 
The ratio is based on containerized cargo, so exports or imports, of things like oil, grain, 747s, and automobiles are not counted. It is also based on the freight capacity of a shipping container, a TEU. Containers come in various sizes and have varying weight capacities. So the industry uses a measurement known as a TEU (Twenty foot Equivalent Unit) to measure fleet size.

As far as containerized cargo goes that number is pretty accurate as the liner companies have imposed inventory restrictions on empties in both the US and Europe. As a result what is not being filled with export cargo is being hauled back empty. So the cynical answer to Floridurimax's question is that our (and Europe's) single largest containerized export is air!

Henry
 
You have to careful about watching this stuff too closely. First there is a timing issue; containers do not exit on the ship they came in on, but later. Additionally, there are also seasonality factors that have to be adjusted. Also, in the case of Long Beach and LA much of the cargo that comes into these ports gets transferred to rail and shipped in many cases as far as the East Coast.

Here is a link to a DOT report that covers port activity in detail for all of the US:
http://www.bts.gov/publications/americas_container_ports/2009/

By looking at the whole of the US at once the picture is clearer because the data is from what amounts to be a closed system. So the affects of containers that enter by LA/LB and exit via Boston factor out.

Here is the blurb from Fortune Magazine I mentioned earlier:

http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/05/empty-container-city/

Henry
 
Last edited:
Henry Boyd said:
You have to careful about watching this stuff too closely. First there is a timing issue; containers do not exit on the ship they came in on, but later. Additionally, there are also seasonality factors that have to be adjusted. Also, in the case of Long Beach and LA much of the cargo that comes into these ports gets transferred to rail and shipped in many cases as far as the East Coast.

Here is a link to a DOT report that covers port activity in detail for all of the US:
http://www.bts.gov/publications/americas_container_ports/2009/

By looking at the whole of the US at once the picture is clearer because the data is from what amounts to be a closed system. So the affects of containers that enter by LA/LB and exit via Boston factor out.

Here is the blurb from Fortune Magazine I mentioned earlier:

http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/05/empty-container-city/

Henry
Click to expand...

Interesting links.......thank you....
 
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