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Lake Michigan occasionally "flips over" mid-summer. When it happens we can get 50 +/- degree water on 90 degree days when the water temp two days prior was 70.
It'll take your breath away but assuming you don't have a heart attack you can surely swim for a few minutes
Some folks can tolerate the cold 'a little' better than others. Maybe you should walk into the water and swim around a bit until you get a feel for how you'd do.This morn water was flat, tempted to take zodiac ride but water temp is 55. Without wetsuit what water temp is safe to fall in, swim around til you can climb back in?
My Dad taught me a lot growing up. One thing stuck with me: Being a glass 1/2 empty pragmatist, he always planned on an imminent disaster. When I started running boats for the local dealer, my Dad told me to never get on a boat that has no visible means for you to climb out of the water if you happened to fall in. To that I've added: "check the boarding ladder to be sure you can deploy it from the water and climb to safety.......this after dealing with Sea Ray's idiotic placement of boarding ladders where it is impossible to unfold them and climb out on your own from a position in the water behind the boat. I'm sorry: "It looks better" is not a valid reason for putting a folding ladder under a hatch where it is impossible to deploy it from the water.
If you follow my Dad's rule, it really doesn't matter how cold the water is.