Lake Erie open water forecast beyond 5 nm - interesting

[RichieRitz]

STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TONIGHT Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 35 knot gales after midnight. Rain likely this evening, then rain and snow after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
FRIDAY Southwest gales to 45 knots increasing to 50 knot storms. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. Waves 14 to 18 feet building to 17 to 22 feet. Waves occasionally around 28 feet.
FRIDAY NIGHT Southwest storm force winds to 50 knots diminishing to 45 knot gales. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. Waves 16 to 21 feet subsiding to 15 to 20 feet. Waves occasionally around 27 feet.
SATURDAY Southwest gales to 45 knots becoming west and diminishing to 35 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers. Waves 15 to 19 feet subsiding to 11 to 15 feet. Waves occasionally around 24 feet.
SATURDAY NIGHT West gales to 35 knots. Freezing spray. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.

 

[Ericinmich]

I read the low predicted the low pressure is the same as a cat 3 hurricane... so not surprising it's going to be ugly.

 

[Halfhitch]

Lake Erie waves are a breed of their own...

 

[Tri County Trail]

Fort Erie 577.2 foot river 364,000 CFS @ 0846

 

[RichieRitz]

We’d normally take short ride down to beach to have look but no way right now. Brutal out there.

 

[Tri County Trail]

 

[RichieRitz]

So gets pushed to you ? I know I saw low water level warnings here.

 

[Tri County Trail]

So gets pushed to you ? I know I saw low water level warnings here.

Yes normal Lake level in Fort Erie apx 571 ft
Wind will push level to estimated 11 ft rise at mouth of river. If the wind predictions come thru.

 

[RichieRitz]

Even 5’ rise here would wipe out many things..higher levels of +3’ here two years ago buried our dock.

 

[Tri County Trail]

Even 5’ rise here would wipe out many things..higher levels of +3’ here two years ago buried our dock.

What ever comes to the North end will slosh back (bathtub effect) how quickly depends on the wind.

 

[Creekwood]

Its too bad the in-lake weather buoys are taken out. It would be cool to see the numbers as this blows through.

 

[my3sons]

Its too bad the in-lake weather buoys are taken out. It would be cool to see the numbers as this blows through.

It would be interesting to see.
Glad we left. Although my security system at home has already sent me the notification that my generator is running. Gives me something to wonder (worry) about. It’s too early for the power outages.
That wasn’t supposed to happen until tomorrow when it gets bad.
This is the latest readings from the shore station at Buffalo harbor. Looks like it got stuck when it flash froze.

 

[RichieRitz]

Oh ok. That’s explains why I couldn’t find those on the Great Lakes vessel tracker site I guess. Interesting one to check out if you haven’t.

 

[RichieRitz]

https://www.shiplocation.com/wikishipia/regions/lakes/LAKE-ERIE/MARINE-TRAFFIC

 

[Blueone]

PIB …… crazy how low the water is today

 

[RichieRitz]

Oh yea. We sent it all to Erie ..

 

[highslice]

PIB …… crazy how low the water is today

View attachment 138004

Wow!