Ike: Deja Vu all over again.........

fwebster

fwebster

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Oct 6, 2006
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Middle Tennessee ; Panama City Beach, FL
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1996 450DA
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I usually don't start many threads, but I thought some of you may find this interesting:

About a week ago, I posted a couple of photos from our marina during Hurricane Gustav. Here is the link:

http://www.clubsearay.com/forum/showthread.php?t=11848&page=7


Fast forward a week. Now Ike is churning in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, about 225 miles south of us after crossing Cuba. These photos were taken this morning. We already have a surge greater than the one for Gustav. At the NOAA reporting bouy off shore, the seas are 26 ft and winds are 25 kts........and the storm is still 200+ miles away and not even headed for us. You folks in Texas, get your boots on and get ready. This is not a storm to triffle with. Note the smoke coming from the green transformer.....wonder when those guys will get power back to their boats.
 

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They just interviewed some people on CNN that are sticking it out in Galveston... idiots. Time to pack up the bags and book out of town. That storm is a monster.
 
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While I might consider staying put to ride out a Cat 1 storm if one were coming my way, there is no way in hell I'd try to ride out a major Cat 3 or worse storm. My wife's cousin was in labor in a Charleston hospital when Hugo hit 19 years ago, and the combination of high wind and low barometric pressure sucked the windows out; it was like an airliner decompressing at altitude! The eye went right over Charleston, and the storm surge maxxed out at Cape Romain about 37 miles NE at +28'. The highest storm surge is generally well to the right of where the storm makes landfall.

A slow moving, widespread Cat 3 storm such as Ike is a killer.
 
Four Suns said:
They just interviewed some people on CNN that are sticking it out in Galveston... idiots. Time to pack up the bags and book out of town. That storm is a monster.
Click to expand...

Guess they do not remember, or did not read about, the last time a monster storm hit Galveston.
 
Just called my Aunt who lives in Galveston, She spent the morning photo'n the house so she will be able to remember "her old home", then they packed and are leaving soon... She's lived there 20 years and has stayed 2 x, They believe this one's taken their home......
 
Against The Wind said:
Just called my Aunt who lives in Galveston, She spent the morning photo'n the house so she will be able to remember "her old home", then they packed and are leaving soon... She's lived there 20 years and has stayed 2 x, They believe this one's taken their home......
Click to expand...

Wow, at least they are leaving. That gave me goose bumps, I hope her home survives, but at least they will be safe! Good luck to those affected, get out of there!
 
This is a *mere* category two storm. May even weaken to a category 1. BUT according to some geeky weather blogs, this is not a "normal" hurricane. From what I am reading Ike has multiple eye walls, and a pressure consistent with a Category 3 or 4 storm. Wind speeds at sea level (and hence the category) are lower than one would expect from these other factors.

The wind maps are bigger than Katrina, and the feeling is that while the storm surge may not be as large as Katrina's at any given point, the surge may extent for much, much further. And it might take longer for the surge to recede.

This may be a case where EVERYONE gets hit by this sucker.

I was in Houston just prior to Rita. What a mess that evacuation was. Hope this one goes better. Good luck to everyone down there!
 
This morning on the Weather Channel one of the emergency mgmt. folks in Galveston said there was no longer enough time to get all folks out of town. Hope your Aunt makes out OK. Her house, too.
 
I would not ride out this storm. We just went out to Navarre Beach to have a look and the water is way up. Buoy 42039 115 miles ESE of PNS is showing 22 foot waves. 42040 65 miles S of MOB is showing 26 foot waves. The sound from Fort Walton Beach to Pensacola Beach is up at least 6 feet. The beach is completely awash and waves are encroaching on our newly built sand dunes. Waves looked to be 12 to 15 feet spaced very close together.

Our family has ridden out Hurricanes Bertha and Fran when we lived on Camp Lejeune, NC. Moved to the panhandle of Florida and now we have ridden out Ivan and Dennis. Hurricane Dennis pass directly over our area in July of 2005. Peak winds in our area were 121 but the storm was moving so fast it didnt pound us into submission.

This one looks different in its charecteristics and figuring the center is about 320 miles away from our area I was amazed at the water level.
 
Last line in the latest Hurricane IKE Discussion 43 at 1700 from NOAA says it all:

BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.
 
My very bestfriend is down south of Galvaston a bit in League City, TX I just talked to her and her hubby and they have their hurricane shutters up and were putting stuff away in the yard. Doing hurricane stuff was all she said. Now never have been in a hurricane myself I see that huge cloud heading for them and I am scared for them. But they seem to think it's all going to be fine. I am trying to convince them that now is the time when they should come and visit me since they have put it off all summer.

we have tornadoes here and that crap is scary enough!!!
 
From an above post:

"This is a *mere* category two storm. May even weaken to a category 1."

Don't down play the potential of this storm. It is going to be over very warm Gulf waters for a long time. Storms gain strength and replenish moisture when this happens. The most accurate weather in our area is NOAA marine forcasts and they are calling for this to be a Cat 3 or low Cat 4 storm by land fall. This is the same strength as Opal that hit near Destin/Ft. Walton in 1995 and the effects of a big storm at that level are devastating. Marine weather for Galveston is predicting a storm surge in the upper bays of 25+ ft.
 
. . . .but if you read the next sentence, it was stated that this storm is actually LARGER than Katrina. Flooding will likely be very, very bad.

Browsing the web this afternoon, it appears that the funky "multiple eye wall" phenomena is disappearing, which may result in higher peak winds before land is reached. As was stated earlier, because of the sheer SIZE of this storm, predicting landfall within a few miles may not be relevant: Significant flooding from the storm surge will be wide spread. As posters in this thread are seeing a storm surge all the way in Florida.

I also found this hurricane warning applicable to the Houston/Galvaston area. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...les+ENE+Houston+TX&product1=Hurricane+Warning

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.
Click to expand...

Not sure it is all that common to see the words "certain death" in a government forcast.
 
I feel like you guys are like our local media,,"nothing but bad news"
We are prepared, My wife and kids left early this morning.. I will be following w/ my 230 early tomorrow out of the area...
We all feel this storm is gonna be another Rita, and head east over towards Beaumont.. But in case we are wrong,, we have boarded and taken measures...

Wish us luck and pray for all your gulf coast Sea Ray cruisin brothers & sisters.. theres alot of us down here........
 
I went to my boat to get my kitesurfing gear and was shocked to see the water way up in the parking lot. The wooden docks on the other side were all under water. It was an up-hill climb from our walkway to the floating docks. One of my lines was within a foot of the top of the piling!

Pics to follow tomorrow. The water was all around the base of the marina building.
 
not trying to be a doomsdayer, just not really any experience with hurricanes. You and your family will be in my thoughts. I certainly hope it is another Rita and the dire predictions are for not.
 
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