How is the economy affecting you?

November 21, 2008
11:18 (Dow Jones)

Warren Buffett was philosophical about the roughly 45% fall in Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA BRKB) shares from their all-time high. "That doesn't make any difference," he tells Fox Business Network, adding it happened to him three times before -- 1974-1975, 1987 and 1998-2000. "I hope I live long enough so it happens a couple more times to me."

(of course when worth $40 billion....)
 
Between #1 and #2. I pulled out of the market over 2 years ago and moved everything to low risk investments which have held their own. I have not lost anything so far.

My house went down approx 5% in value, so I had it reassessed 2 weeks ago. I just found out that my mortgage will be about $60 less than it used to be starting in January. My primary job is pretty stable, as I am one of our top producers. I also have a part time business that has been doing pretty well.

Between the boat and a 50 mile one way commute to work, my gas expenditures were really getting up there this summer. The fall in prices has left me with a good bit more money in my pocket than I had 3 months ago.

I can cover the mortgage for 5 years with the cash that I have on hand if I cover the utilities and food with any other income at all.

I'm thinking that it might just be time to take a break and let Obama give me everything I need for a few years. I can go back to work after he's gone and the economy starts to recover. Gotta get while the gettin' is good...

I feel really bad for those of you that are having a hard time. I hope that each of you finds a way to get through this. It will be temporary.

Michael
 
sb in gp said:
From my professional investment advisor. If they are wrong, I'll take them down. He is not a hack, degree in finance and 20 years of investing experience.
Click to expand...

Did he give you the source of the data?

Let’s just dig into one of the above.

------------

Tech Bubble Burst (1999-2006)

Market Bottom: October 9, 2002

• Did nothing Recovered in 4 years

• Bought more Recovered in 10 months ($10,000 additional investment)

• Sold out Realized 45.14% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +36.16%
---------------------

How do you define ‘recovered’? You would not be assuming the person wants to know how long it would take to recover from the bottom, so its assumed you are trying to determine how long it would take to recover from the peak, or, in other words, if you had $1 at the peak, at what point are you back to $1.

On March 10, 2000 the peak of the NASDAQ was 5132.52
Today the NASDAQ closed at 1,384.35.

So how long did it take to recover? The answer is it did not recover yet.
 
tobnpr said:
2-3.

If the damn banks would start LENDING money again (how the hell do they earn revenues/make a profit if they're not lending money? That's what banks do!) developers might be able to get their projects off the Architect's drawing table.

Until banks start lending money (responsibly) and businesses and consumers begin borrowing and spending again, things aren't going to get better. By being fearful of the future and cutting out spending, we're actually helping to seal the deal for worsening economic conditions. Catch 22...
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I'm in your field, and we are seeing much the same. Except that at least in our area, community banks are picking up the slack where the regional banks have frozen up lending on commercial projects. The community banks may not be able to tackle the biggest projects, but in some cases several may go in on a loan together, with one taking the lead for servicing the loan and approving draws. I just heard today from a GC in northern Ohio that they got a deal financed through a consortium of 10 credit unions. In most cases, the interest rate may be higher than it would be if the regional bank were to make the loan, but if the regional won't play, it really doesn't count what their interest rate would have been.
 
Presentation said:
Did he give you the source of the data?

Let’s just dig into one of the above.

------------

Tech Bubble Burst (1999-2006)

Market Bottom: October 9, 2002

• Did nothing Recovered in 4 years

• Bought more Recovered in 10 months ($10,000 additional investment)

• Sold out Realized 45.14% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +36.16%
---------------------

How do you define ‘recovered’? You would not be assuming the person wants to know how long it would take to recover from the bottom, so its assumed you are trying to determine how long it would take to recover from the peak, or, in other words, if you had $1 at the peak, at what point are you back to $1.

On March 10, 2000 the peak of the NASDAQ was 5132.52
Today the NASDAQ closed at 1,384.35.

So how long did it take to recover? The answer is it did not recover yet.
Click to expand...

Here is the response from my financial advisor to your reply:

=====================================
"The person that made the response is not measuring the correct index. We are measuring the S&P 500 index as shown on slide 20 during the popping of the tech bubble. We don’t ever recommend clients invest in only one sector like tech. He is referring to the (NASDAQ). For clients we invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks which include all sectors like the (S&P 500). So ask him to measure that and see if it makes sense to him."
=====================================

Now I am a businessman not a financial expert, and I only posted the information in the hopes of injecting some optimism into the conversation. I don't plan to go back and forth on who is right and who is wrong. If anyone else complains besides Presentation, I'll take the info down.
 
sb in gp said:
If anyone else complains besides Presentation, I'll take the info down.
Click to expand...

My sincere apology. It was not my intent to complain. It was my intent to question the data since it’s not consistent with my memory. I’d also like to see the source so I can fact check.

If a member here said they have a Bravo III outdrive and boat in Lake Michigan and asked what type of anodes they should use and someone replied “zinc” are we allowed to reply questioning the answer? I hope the answer is yes. That is the beauty of a forum, it’s interactive.

Now we know the advisor is using only S&P 500 data. This does raise a new question. How did the advisor calculate the data for 1938-1946 since the S&P did not exist before 1957?

Please do not take the data down. I am not asking you to take the data down. Instead I would like to use it as an example of how we need to scrutinize data not blindly accept it. I welcome you to perform this same scrutiny to the information I provide.
 
Somewhere between #2 and #3. My employer moves the economy, and there isn't as much to move right now. For the spring I'm probably looking at the choice of keeping my pay with a commute to AK, or stay put with a loss of status. No days off and have money left over for the boat, or stay put and reduce the budget? Neither option makes for great boating here in 2009. Should have listened to Doug (Presentation) and paid cash up front for the water toy.
 
Number 4 for me. I am retired and my so called safe investments turned out not to be safe enough.:smt013

Currently evaluating whether the boat has to go or not. :smt089
 
Presentation said:
My sincere apology. It was not my intent to complain. It was my intent to question the data since it’s not consistent with my memory. I’d also like to see the source so I can fact check.

If a member here said they have a Bravo III outdrive and boat in Lake Michigan and asked what type of anodes they should use and someone replied “zinc” are we allowed to reply questioning the answer? I hope the answer is yes. That is the beauty of a forum, it’s interactive.

Now we know the advisor is using only S&P 500 data. This does raise a new question. How did the advisor calculate the data for 1938-1946 since the S&P did not exist before 1957?

Please do not take the data down. I am not asking you to take the data down. Instead I would like to use it as an example of how we need to scrutinize data not blindly accept it. I welcome you to perform this same scrutiny to the information I provide.
Click to expand...
Pres, while the S&P 500 has been in existance only since the 50's, there was a Standard and Poor's index prior to that. For purposes of analysis and comparison it's not unusual to consider one an extension or continuation of the other.
 
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Presentation said:
My sincere apology. It was not my intent to complain. It was my intent to question the data since it’s not consistent with my memory. I’d also like to see the source so I can fact check.

If a member here said they have a Bravo III outdrive and boat in Lake Michigan and asked what type of anodes they should use and someone replied “zinc” are we allowed to reply questioning the answer? I hope the answer is yes. That is the beauty of a forum, it’s interactive.

Now we know the advisor is using only S&P 500 data. This does raise a new question. How did the advisor calculate the data for 1938-1946 since the S&P did not exist before 1957?

Please do not take the data down. I am not asking you to take the data down. Instead I would like to use it as an example of how we need to scrutinize data not blindly accept it. I welcome you to perform this same scrutiny to the information I provide.
Click to expand...

Apology accepted. I agree that all things posted deserve to be questioned and that nobody should blindly accept anything. That's what makes this board so valuable, the information is checked and analyzed by others and this leads to better info for all. Along the same lines, I don't think you should state "They are totally wrong by the way". Maybe "I disagree with this info for these reasons..." would be more accurate.

I suggest we leave it at that.
 
sb in gp said:
Along the same lines, I don't think you should state "They are totally wrong by the way". Maybe "I disagree with this info for these reasons..." would be more accurate.

I suggest we leave it at that.
Click to expand...


Point well taken. I should have said it the latter way.
 
While looking for furniture post this came up.
Wondering if any thing has changed. Are times: same, better or not so good?
 
#1. No interior designers! My dog takes care of that! As a wholesale IceCream distributor, as the things get bad, people need feel good food!
Profits are up 23%


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Not bad since I started selling drugs. I turned $5.000 into $15.000 in 2 weeks . :grin:
 
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Wayne........you crazy man!
 
Its the med's I'm taking that type that one. :smt024. :smt001
 
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CSR_Admin said:
Ummm, nobody's buying boats. Not even calling on them. That hurts :smt009 I'm glad I have other stuff going on because I would hate it if all we did was sell boats right now.
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Don't I know it. I was only commenting to my broker the other day that I would not like to be a boat broker at the moment cause they must surely be close to going to the wall.
 
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