How is the economy affecting you?

Presentation said:
#3) I’m employed or own a business but I’m being squeezed, income, savings, home value is down and worried how much worse it will get.

#4) I’m greatly affected now, lost job or retired with declining investments, own a business that is not doing very good, we are cutting every expense we can.
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3.5

Job is at risk (potential layoff end of Jan), 401(k) retirement savings have mutated to a ridiculously low level, and we're spending less. Stress level is high. Haven't yet canceled vacation plans or put the boat up for sale. We are making plans to go into layoff mode (learning more about applying for unemployment compensation, gathering cash, preparing to cut way back on spending, considering new career possibilities).
 
My printing company is hanging in there. In the 24 years in business, we have never sent anyone home. We have cut all 3 shifts to 7 hours a day to leave our flexibility in tact when we hit a busy streak but if we have no work they have to head home. Trying to venture into other markets to help get through this period. Makes you think pretty hard when you have 70 employee's lives in your hands. Alot of prayers and hard work will get us through this. Although I have only had this boat for 4 month's, I'm sure that I will be getting the 4 foot itch at some point.
 
I run a collection agency and everybody thinks we are making a killing in this market... the truth is we are getting lots of new accounts in the door, but NOBODY has any $$$ to pay their bills..... We are off by 25% minimum !!

#3) I’m employed or own a business but I’m being squeezed, income, savings, home value is down and worried how much worse it will get.
 
#1. I am in the entertainment business which always sems to flourish during had economic times. The TV always needs a picture, and drinking and concerts always seem to be a good escape for people with the blues.

No Interior designers, but I did just buy a boat!
 
#4 applies to me. My department as well as another department are getting sent to mexico. Were all getting kicked out the door on DEC. 23rd and Marvin's number.

I've been freaking out lately. Things were going great a month ago and now Detroit is falling apart. When GM goes so does 95% of michigans jobs.
 
I have no idea how my biz is going to be impacted by the economy. It's always hard for me to tell if it's a cycle or a trend.
 
I'm somewhere between 2 and 6, just depends if I read/watch the news today or not. I am beginning to sweat bullets though, being a builder these days is not a good market to be in. Before the AIG fallout, things were still OK here in the RDU area but it sure has taken a turn since then. Builders around me are dropping like flies, which inturn causes prices to drop in the form of distressed sales. It's hard to compete with another who's dropped 50+k off their price because of a bank approved short sale. Even though new constuction production is way down, the market is flooded with resale's, short sales and foreclosures yet there are no buyers to lower the inventories. I fortunatly, saw it coming last August and scaled way back, laid off everyone and have kept inventory low. Right now I have 3 homes on the market in the 350k price range, about the only range that seems to be moving although extremely slow.

The latest predictions I heard is that roughly 80% of all builders, developers and realtors will not make it through this. I just hope I can be in the 20% and feel like I will be but I still don't sleep as good these days. I keep on joking with my wife that she may have to go back to work (radiology) so I can take my turn of being at home, and now she's seriously considering it, but there's no positions available.

Anybody want a great deal on a like new 03 340DA??
SB
 
I guess I'm between 1 and 2 but it sure is easy to slip into doubt about where we are headed. Two months ago we were looking at moving up to a 48 Sundancer or 52 Sedan Bridge but we've put that on hold. I'm fortunate not to have any debt other than the boat and I've got a comfortable and stable income, but I can't help but to hesitate at every spending decision after reading the WSJ and watching the news networks every day. I can't bury my head in the sand and just wait for it to get better but I've decided it's best just to leave the TV off in the office all day rather than leaving it tuned to a news network that just blathers on about the crisis de jour....I still read the Journal every day.....I can't completely ignore reality
 
#2 ish

Currently full time military, but only for another 20 months or so - then back to the airlines with 11 years seniority (hopefully). Wife's job seems ok, but only planning on her working another 20 months or so.

Real Concern: I own 25% of a used car lot and 25% of a service center/used car lot. We don't need a lot of business in order to pay the bills, but I am counting on some business to pay the loan on one of the properties. Also, we are currently taking out another loan on the other property to pay off random investors so we don't have to worry about them backing out on us when we don't have the cash.

If business really shuts down, I'll be hard-pressed to make the loans. I have a lot of cash in these places - I can't afford to lose them. They are buy-here pay-here style. We've been doing a lot of repos lately. We never repo from good people with good intentions - only from criminals who try to steal our cars.

Got out of market almost 100% Aug '07. Back in 100% as of 2 weeks ago. Maybe saved 30 - 40%. 30 - 40% of zero is zero. Got into Gold vectors to some extent.
 
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#3. Sad to see my WI home still on the market and for 80K less than the original asking price. 401K took a beating. Generally cutting back a bit everywhere possible.

Good news is that I work in healthcare and Renee works in the legal field so our jobs feel recession-proof so far...
 
Between a 2 and a 3 here. My wife is a doctor and Im a general sales manager for a $20 billion company. My company is strong and my teams are holding their own. My wifes practices are down and she makes the higher percentage of our income. We shut down one clinic with 7 months left on the lease. Paying $6500 a month for 5000 square feet of nothing just kills me to think about it, so I dont. We just made the last payment this month but now my attention is focused on the two buildings we have loans on that have been on the market for the past 6 months with no action. 10k a month for those and my wifes practices occupy them but we are looking to move to Tampa and move the practices as well. The overhead is suffocating and we are trying to downsize to make it through the next couple of years without having to change our lifestyle.
If I didnt have a fabulous wife and 5 unbelievable kids, i think i would walk away from the material world I compete in and get a job renting jetskis down in the keys. Just kidding, but man it sounds good sometimes. It doesnt matter if you make 600k a year or 60k a year, everyone I think is feeling the pinch or worrying about it to some degree. Oh, and to top it off im down 96% on my largest investment in the market, not even worth selling at this point, I just sit and hope that someday it will be worth more.
I think that someones success in hard times comes from a positive mental aspect. What you put out in the universe you will attract back to you.
 
Inflation is going to go through the roof. I'm spending my money now while it's worth something.
 
Between a 1 and 2. We sell and implement systems that make businesses more efficient. Business is still strong and we are hiring people, but our sales cycles are 6-12 months so time will tell.

Here is some good info about recovering from previous economic downturns, to put it in perspective:


The Great Depression (1928-1936)

Market Bottom: June 1, 1932

· Did nothing Recovered in 4 years- 4 months

· Bought more Recovered in 3 months ($10,000 additional investment)

· Sold out Realized 78% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +137.6%



World War II (1938-1946)

Market Bottom: April 28, 1942

· Did nothing Recovered in 9 months

· Bought more Recovered in 4 months ($10,000 additional investment)

· Sold out Realized 31% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +64.3%



Oil Crisis (1972-1976)

Market Bottom: October 3, 1974

· Did nothing Recovered in 1 year, 8 months

· Bought more Recovered in 5 months ($10,000 additional investment)

· Sold out Realized 44% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +44.46%



Tech Bubble Burst (1999-2006)

Market Bottom: October 9, 2002

· Did nothing Recovered in 4 years

· Bought more Recovered in 10 months ($10,000 additional investment)

· Sold out Realized 45.14% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +36.16%
 
The W.A.V.E. said:
I think that someones success in hard times comes from a positive mental aspect. What you put out in the universe you will attract back to you.
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Thats the best way to look at it. Its sooooo hard to do here in detroit right now but you have to think positive. Im curbing my spending like crazy right now and look forward to ice fishing this winter. its the CHEAPEST alterantive to sitting at home all day doing nothing haha.
 
sb in gp said:
Between a 1 and 2. We sell and implement systems that make businesses more efficient. Business is still strong and we are hiring people, but our sales cycles are 6-12 months so time will tell.

Here is some good info about recovering from previous economic downturns, to put it in perspective:


The Great Depression (1928-1936)

Market Bottom: June 1, 1932

· Did nothing Recovered in 4 years- 4 months

· Bought more Recovered in 3 months ($10,000 additional investment)

· Sold out Realized 78% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +137.6%



World War II (1938-1946)

Market Bottom: April 28, 1942

· Did nothing Recovered in 9 months

· Bought more Recovered in 4 months ($10,000 additional investment)

· Sold out Realized 31% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +64.3%



Oil Crisis (1972-1976)

Market Bottom: October 3, 1974

· Did nothing Recovered in 1 year, 8 months

· Bought more Recovered in 5 months ($10,000 additional investment)

· Sold out Realized 44% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +44.46%



Tech Bubble Burst (1999-2006)

Market Bottom: October 9, 2002

· Did nothing Recovered in 4 years

· Bought more Recovered in 10 months ($10,000 additional investment)

· Sold out Realized 45.14% loss

1-year recovery from bottom +36.16%
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Where did you get these numbers? They are totally wrong by the way.

Buy and hold ------result

Buy the dow in 1900 your balance would be lower in 1932
Buy the dow in 1929 you would not be back to breaking even until 1954
Buy the dow in 1967 you would not be back to breaking even until 1982
Buy the NASDAQ in March of 2000 -> not even close yet. Right now it’s at about 1/4th of or 'off by 75%. I may not see the March 2000 level again in my lifetime.


Buy the dow in 1900 sell in 2000 your return over 100 years = 5.3%/year

Myth – I’ve heard numbers tossed around saying the stock market averages, say 10% a year. I guess if the real estate people can claim housing goes up 10% a year (also BS) then the stock people can too. The issue is the numbers do not work out that way.

Also, 5.3% does not account for survivors bias. This means companies that go under are not counted since numbers are calculated over time period x to y for. When they no longer exist during time period y they are ignored. So from Enron to Wang computers, they are not counted.
 
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Presentation said:
Where did you get these numbers? They are totally wrong by the way.

Buy and hold ------result

Buy the dow in 1900 your balance would be lower in 1932
Buy the dow in 1929 you would not be back to breaking even until 1954
Buy the dow in 1967 you would not be back to breaking even until 1982
Buy the NASDAQ in March of 2000 -> not even close yet. Right now it’s at about 1/4th of or 'off by 75%. I may not see the March 2000 level again in my lifetime.


Buy the dow in 1900 sell in 2000 your return over 100 years = 5.3%.
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Both sets of statistics are probably correct. . and appear cherry picked.

In general, I think the market looks more like 1929 than 1987. . but I am not sure how relevant 2008 economics compare to 1929 economics. Afterall. . .in 1929, a telephone in a home (party line or not) was a rare thing.
 
2-3.

I'm a commercial contractor that's known for the past 1-1/2 to 2 years that the slowdown was coming; a trickle- down from the halt of residential construction in our area. Still work out there, but it sure isn't like a couple of years ago when I said we were booked solid for six months and couldn't take on more work...

If the damn banks would start LENDING money again (how the hell do they earn revenues/make a profit if they're not lending money? That's what banks do!) developers might be able to get their projects off the Architect's drawing table.

Until banks start lending money (responsibly) and businesses and consumers begin borrowing and spending again, things aren't going to get better. By being fearful of the future and cutting out spending, we're actually helping to seal the deal for worsening economic conditions. Catch 22...
 
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