Current Housing Market 2009 - Experiences?

Chuck, trust me, my feelings are not fragile when it comes to this stuff. I rather be told how it is than someone blowing smoke up my a$$. Just for the record, my realtor set my initial pricing and the pricing when it dropped. To this point, I personally have not come up with a number. I was letting his 'expertise' guide me. I may be disappointed, but I'm not surprised at all.

Doug
 
Doug
Glad to hear it. Has your realtor given you a true CMA?
 
This whole situation sucks. Good people are paying for the mistakes of the few whom wanted to look and act like they were rich. Then their are the people who bought houses that never had any business buying a home, but did because Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae said they could. I can't wait for the maddness to end. Maybe we will all come away from this alittle more humble, a little more mindful of our precarious situations and learn from our mistakes.
 
Chuck, trust me, my feelings are not fragile when it comes to this stuff. I rather be told how it is than someone blowing smoke up my a$$. Just for the record, my realtor set my initial pricing and the pricing when it dropped. To this point, I personally have not come up with a number. I was letting his 'expertise' guide me. I may be disappointed, but I'm not surprised at all.

Doug

Well Doug your a better man than me. I was pulling my hair out. I guess your one of the ones who justifies with I don't have to sell, I just want to sell. Hmmm. want to sell now? OK, I'll shut up.
 
Doug
Glad to hear it. Has your realtor given you a true CMA?

His CMA guided the initial pricing.

Just last week though he told me he though the price was too high now. He feels if I drop it 2-3% I should be right in the mix then. Whatever that means....

Doug
 
Look at his CMA. True sales in the last 3 months and current pending. I don't care what sold last year or even 6 months ago. IMHO - Your price needs to be at or below the solds. If you want it sold, it does not mater what you paid or have in the house.
 
I have had my house on the market for 11 months now. I have lowered the price by $400k at his point. we built right, are not in financial distress.....my wife just has a wild hair to move to Chicago for some reason.

The total activity over the past 10 months can be summed up like this...

1. caller interested, comes and looks with his wife, asks if we built a hotel, our listing states 6 bedrooms 6 baths, after his hotel comment I ask,"how many children do you have?", he replies,"none". WTF

2. A person calls says they are looking to rent some place for a while. Now up to this point I hadn't considered it. But after 5 months of zero activity I replied, will maybe. I would need $6k per month. The guys says no problem, when can i see the place? I told him let me call my wife and i would call him back. I dont know if it was the crack smoking in the background or the sound of hookers having sex in the background, either way i didnt call him back.

3. Caller says I want to see your house. I said great, he looks at it and two days later offers half the asking price. I say no thanks jackass.

In the county i live in there have only been 2 homes over 600k sell this calendar year. There are 17 listings between 800k and 2.8 million and the average day on the market for these listings is 480 days.

The market sucks, jumbo loans require our first born to qualify for and if you own a more expensive home.....STAY PUT OR GO CRAZY KEEPING IT CLEAN FOR 3 YEARS WHILE YOU TRY TO FIRE SALE IT.

Just my opinion.
 
Geez man. I don't envy you at all.

What is your wife smoking then? $400k is a lot to drop off the price of a home!

Doug
 
Doug, I wish I had what shes smoking. Frankly, the starting price was based on what my next door neighbor paid for his home 6 months before we went on the market. So, he paid too much obviously and we may have started 200k too high, but at $185 of foot, we are priced less than just about everyone else in our price range, there just arnt any buyers. Or people spending a million plus are building what they want rather than buying resells.

Anyway, i dont envy me either
 
$185/foot? I would give my left nut to pay that. I'm at about $1,100/foot in the city.
 
Another great :smt089 article out today. The problem with all these types of articles, people seem to forget Real Estate is all Local.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They're expected to head a lot lower.
Home values are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next year, according to a new forecast of real estate prices.
Overall, the national median home price is predicted to drop 11.3% by June 30, 2010, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm. For the following year, the firm anticipates some stabilization with prices rising 3.6%.
In the past, Fiserv anticipated the rapid decline in home-sale prices over the past few years -- though it underestimated the scope.
Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com, agreed with Fiserv's current assessments. "I think more price declines are coming because the foreclosure crisis is not over," he said.
In fact, those areas with high concentrations of foreclosure sales will experience the steepest drops, according to Fiserv. Miami, for example, is expected to be the biggest loser. Prices are forecast to plunge 29.9% by next June -- after having already fallen a whopping 48% during the past three years.
If Fiserv's forecast holds, Miami real median home price will tumble to $142,000 by June 2011.
In Orlando, Fla., the second-worst performing market, Fiserv anticipates a 27% price collapse by June 2010, followed by a less severe drop the following year. In Hanford, Calif., prices are estimated to drop 26.9% and continue falling 9.5% in 2011; in Naples, Fla., they're expected to fall 26.8% and then flatten out.
Other notable losers include Las Vegas, where prices have already fallen 54.6% and are expected to lose another 23.9% by June 2010. In Phoenix values have already collapsed by 54% and could fall another 23.4%. In both cities, Fiserv anticipates the losses to continue into 2011, but they will be less than 5%.
Prices had stabilized
The latest forecast is at odds with the past few months of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index. That report has given hope that most housing markets may have already stabilized because the composite index of 20 cities rose in May, June and July. Nationally, it found that home prices have gained 3.6%.
Brad Hunter, chief economist for Metrostudy, which provides housing market information to the industry, however, expects a change in fortunes, however.
"I'm afraid Case-Shiller may be just a temporary reprieve," he said.
He pointed out that the tax credit for first-time home buyers helped support prices during the three months of Case-Shiller gains. By the end of November, the credit will have been used by 1.8 million homebuyers, at least 355,000 of whom would not have bought a house without the tax break, according to estimates by the National Association of Realtors. But the market assistance ends when the credit expires on Dec. 1.
Hunter also sees a new wave of foreclosure problems coming from higher priced loans and prime mortgages. He expects a high failure rate for option ARM loans that were issued to prime customers so they could buy homes in bubble markets, such as California and Florida. In those areas, prices for even modest homes had skyrocketed.
Winners
A handful of metro areas will buck the trend, according to Fiserv. Six markets will remain flat, and 33 will actually post gains. The biggest winner will be the Kennewick, Wash., metro area, where home prices have ramped up 8.9% over the past three years and are expected to increase another 3.4% by June 2010.
Fairbanks, Alaska, prices are anticipated to rise 2.5%, while Anchorage will climb 2.1%. Elmira, N.Y., prices may inch up 1.8%.
The nation's biggest metro area, New York City, will underperform the nation as a whole over the next two years, according to Fiserv. Prices, which have already fallen 21.7% to a median of $375,000, are expected to fall 17.4% by June 2011.
Home values in the nation's second largest city, Los Angeles, have fallen 43.3% since June 2006 to a median of $313,000. They are expected to dive another 20.2% over by June 2010, and then start to climb in 2011. Chicago prices, which have fallen 25.2% to $227,000, will drop only 4.1% over the next 12 months and then starting to climb.
The Detroit metro area now has the dubious distinction of having the lowest home prices in the country. Prices have dropped 51.7% to a median of $50,000. They're expected to fall another 9.1% and then stabilize.
 
We have our lake condo up for sale, because we would like to get a bigger place. I could easily cover the cost of our current condo and make some extra $ by renting it out as a vacation rental, but I don't want to own 2 condos, and I'm not sure that we could get a loan for a 2nd condo in this lending environment (despite credit scores in the 800's, and more than enough free cash flow).

Anyway, it has been an interesting process, watching people's strategy. There are 5 two bedroom condos the same size as ours for sale in our development. The price range is between $118,000 and $210,000. There are 3 bedroom condos for sale that normally get a $15,000 - $20,000 premium over the 2 bedroom condos (depending on view) that are coming on the market for $30,000 - $40,000 less than the 2 bedroom units. My point is that you can tell the people that have to sell vs. those of us who just want to sell by the price. Desperation changes one's perspective.
 
Why is no one being captain obvious?

To be blunt…..take offer #3 or continue to wait and hope. #1 would have worked as well.

It’s really that simple.

Let me explain.

I use Craig’s List to sell items and buy items.

I sold several items I just wanted to get rid of. So far every item sold in 1 day. That’s one day!

Now I could have asked more money and held out for top dollar. Screw that!
When the engine blew in my 14 year old Murray 42” riding lawnmower I asked $150 for the thing for parts. Sure I could have asked for $250 or more and messed around. Nope, ask a fair price, got it done, and move on.

When my wife got the new fangled “Sole” brand treadmill with its Cushion Flex Shock Absorption Whisper Deck (don’t get me started on that!) I wanted her old “Health Trainer” treadmill gone, now! $200. It was gone in under 2 hours.

I could list more examples as well.

In all cases the first person took it.

Look, if you made your asking price $1 would it sell today? Of course! How about $2? How about $3? Keep going until the dollar value and time you are willing to wait collide then accept that price.

If you want, need, have to have that last 5% of the selling price then be prepared for the risk that we may soon be entering “The Great recession II” or we could be entering a time of hyperinflation that would make the late 70’s look tame.

Consider doing a FSBO and dropping your asking price by the % the realtor is charging.

Keep doing what you are doing and hope.

Pick your poison.


I sold two cars and a bed in Craig's list.. One car 10 years old (w/230K miles for $2k) took 2 hours to sell. The other car ('06 Grand Marquis) took one week and sold for $10K, last month... I wonder if you can sell a home on Craigslist???

I would lower your price to your bottom line and see what happens...
 

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