Black Friday in the Stock Market?

[rh320]

Sorry. It's XLF, not XLE. Was in XLE last week. XLF not looking good right now but the calls expire 5/18 so have some time.

I play a little in the small cap world too, mainly penny stocks. I usually buy those at the close then sell at the open for 10% profit. Guy that runs the room I'm in started an account in December with $6500 and just hit $25,000 this week. He is starting over beginning of next week but I think he is starting with $10k this time. Just overnight holds. No options in that account, just penny stocks.

Well I would think XLF is a good play with longer term calls. Interest rates are going to rise.

Hmm, I never considered that. Doesn't sound like a bad strategy to allocate a small part of ones portfolio to if one has the tolerance or funds for that risk.

 

[rh320]

I probably have around 90% of my portfolio in mutual funds in my IRA's. I have an Etrade account that I mess around with. Currently my favorite stock is SHOP (e-commerce). Although Andrew Left of Citron is after it again. I plan to hold it for a few years. Anybody else have a favorite others can research? Good Luck out there.

I dont know much about SHOP. I'll have to look into it. I enjoy researching new stocks.

Are you familiar with MELI? MELI is an e-commerce company in the emerging markets world. If they can establish and maintain a foothold in that part of the world then they have incredible growth potential.

Tencent is another interesting play in the e-commerce world. They're much more than an e-commerce play but they're in China. I believe they have the potential to become the biggest company in the world by market cap. Currently the 5th. I have very high hopes for that stock.

 

[boatman37]

I only played it a few times but a couple guys in our room are big on RXMD. The only one I purposely play regularly is SPY options. I have played AYTU a few times (but lost money on it today).

Look up Kyle Dennis. Kid is amazing. What you read is true. I have seen his trades and how he goes about selecting stocks. I'm not in his room but Jose Canseco, Frank Mir, and I think Terrell Owens are. Kid took $15k and in 5 years was making $1M/year trading. I trade with a couple of guys that are in the same group as Kyle so get emails and promo stuff from him once in awhile.

 

[rh320]

I only played it a few times but a couple guys in our room are big on RXMD. The only one I purposely play regularly is SPY options. I have played AYTU a few times (but lost money on it today).

Look up Kyle Dennis. Kid is amazing. What you read is true. I have seen his trades and how he goes about selecting stocks. I'm not in his room but Jose Canseco, Frank Mir, and I think Terrell Owens are. Kid took $15k and in 5 years was making $1M/year trading. I trade with a couple of guys that are in the same group as Kyle so get emails and promo stuff from him once in awhile.

Yeah, SPY is the way to go. Tons of options to choose from and tons of liquidity.

That is an interesting stock, RXMD. I haven't researched many penny stocks but I assume that most dont have revenue growth, most arn't profitable, most arnt paying down long term debt and so on such as RXMD. I like the core business and I don't hate the financials considering a penny stock. I see that theyre planning on making an acquisition so they care about growth. Highly liquid with a 10m average volume. I dont know but RXMD may not be a penny stock forever from what I am seeing. I look at the chart and it seems as if its coming back down to its 50dma. I might wait for it to hit 0.10/share and try it hoping for a bounce off that 50 day.

Ill look him up.

 

[boatman37]

FEYE is another they are watching. Figuring a buyout may be coming. I was 3 for 4 on SPY trades today. Net was +34% total on all 4.

 

[rh320]

FEYE seems worth investigating. Cyber security is obviously a huge issue these days. Sheesh, do that everyday and you'll never have to choose working over boating again!

 

[boatman37]

FEYE seems worth investigating. Cyber security is obviously a huge issue these days. Sheesh, do that everyday and you'll never have to choose working over boating again!

Doing it every day would be nice but even then it is small amounts. You probably know this but you never go in with your full account. Typically it's about $500 per trade for me so my net after fees was about $180 for the day. Not enough to quit my job over...lol (yet). But there are a bunch of guys in the room I'm in that make several thousand a day but they have big accounts and going in each trade with about $10k. I'm not that brave yet.

Oh, and I work in cybersecurity...lol (System Security Engineer)

 

[rh320]

Doing it every day would be nice but even then it is small amounts. You probably know this but you never go in with your full account. Typically it's about $500 per trade for me so my net after fees was about $180 for the day. Not enough to quit my job over...lol (yet). But there are a bunch of guys in the room I'm in that make several thousand a day but they have big accounts and going in each trade with about $10k. I'm not that brave yet.

Oh, and I work in cybersecurity...lol (System Security Engineer)

$180/day, can't hate that! Thats awesome. I used to make way to big of trades that were far out of my league. I would look at a $100 profit and say why even bother but now I look to make that small profit as many times a year as I can and its much easier to profit that way and it really adds up! Glad I dont try to hit homeruns anymore.

Nice! I would say your in the right career for the future!

 

[rh320]

I have a lot of friends and family who are extremely nervous with all of the recent volatility that has entered the market and also just for the fact that this bull market is far from young. They all think its crazy and that it has to end soon. I ask why and I just get guesses or gut feelings or intuitions. I never get any solid reasoning as to why a crash is imminent. Now, I believe we are getting closer to the end and I think we will have a nasty crash but heres some reasons to be optimistic short term. Projections for 1Q 2018 are a 17.2% growth in bottom-line profits for the companies in the S&P 500. Last time there was growth like that this bull market was just getting going. Also, a record number of companies have revised their guidances upward. We haven't even begun to see the positive effect on stocks from the recent corporate tax cuts. Happy profiting this week!

 

[Ezsteps]

rh320, I met with my financial advisor a few weeks ago for the same reason. I was thinking to myself this bull market can't last much longer. After talking to him for a few hours I felt more comfortable about the market. He said about the same thing you just did. The numbers are not that out of wack. He says there is still a lot of money on the sidelines because a lot of people are still afraid of a 08'/09'. I even notice it in people, for example a few weeks back when we lost like 1200 or so points in one day everyone around work was freaking out. I pointed out to them that drop didn't even make the top 10 for the worst one day loses in DOW history. He says that there is no doubt we are going to have a big correction sometime, he just can't see any real numbers to show that it is close. Not saying things can't turn on a dime but after meeting with him I'm pretty confident that I'm going to have another good year. I've been with him for 22 years and his strategy has worked great so far. I'm 50 years old and plan on retiring at 59 (I will still tinker after that). I made some spreadsheets in 2012 to track my plan and so far I'm ahead of where I planned. Good Luck Everyone

 

[rh320]

rh320, I met with my financial advisor a few weeks ago for the same reason. I was thinking to myself this bull market can't last much longer. After talking to him for a few hours I felt more comfortable about the market. He said about the same thing you just did. The numbers are not that out of wack. He says there is still a lot of money on the sidelines because a lot of people are still afraid of a 08'/09'. I even notice it in people, for example a few weeks back when we lost like 1200 or so points in one day everyone around work was freaking out. I pointed out to them that drop didn't even make the top 10 for the worst one day loses in DOW history. He says that there is no doubt we are going to have a big correction sometime, he just can't see any real numbers to show that it is close. Not saying things can't turn on a dime but after meeting with him I'm pretty confident that I'm going to have another good year. I've been with him for 22 years and his strategy has worked great so far. I'm 50 years old and plan on retiring at 59 (I will still tinker after that). I made some spreadsheets in 2012 to track my plan and so far I'm ahead of where I planned. Good Luck Everyone

Wow, 22 years with the same guy. Thats great. He must be a good one. Thats awesome to hear! I am only 29 so I have a freaking long ways to go but I want to be retired by 60 as well.

Yeah, I mean, it certainly feels like something has to give sooner or later just because its been going up for so long and what goes up must come down right? But, if you remove emotions and look at facts, theres still room to run. Theres actually probably a lot more room to run. Usually the end of these epic bull markets provides the most explosive returns of the entire run. There are quite a few things that I am waiting for to signal the end but until I see the average Joe who knows nothing about investing going all into the market at ridiculous valuations while ignoring all sound logic and reasoning, then theres still room to run. I to do believe too much money from average investors is still on the sideline. These epic crashes usually do not happen when average investors are as fearful as they currently are, it happens when average investors start acting like nothing can go wrong!

The only thing currently that concerns me in the short term are trade wars. While I like the fact that we're trying to get even or at least closer to even with others, because so many countries benefit financially from our trade imbalances, I am concerned because we can't have other countries going elsewhere and buying less of our stuff because we desperately need others buying up the dollar. I am also concerned, and this isnt as short term as the trade wars, but we can't have countries replacing the petrodollar!!

Its clear were at least nearing the end of this bull market and I am betting big that we will transition into an epic bull run in commodities sooner than later. Thats where I am preparing to move my money once I feel we get closer to the end of this run.

 

[boatman37]

I don't worry about the long term market direction. I have a 401k so 'hope' it continues going up but as far as my trading I can make money faster when it goes down. I am usually only in my trades for 5-10 minutes, sometimes a little longer. Occasionally I will hold SPY options overnight but that's as long as I hold. I do currently have 5/18 SPY 287 calls but it is a very small position. Had that for about a week now.

Yeah, if I could make $180/day every day it would be nice. Getting there. I started trading in 2013 and did decent but lost my job in 2014 and cleaned out my accounts. I just started back up again a few months ago and starting with a small account. Hoping it will be a big account next year...lol

 

[rh320]

I don't worry about the long term market direction. I have a 401k so 'hope' it continues going up but as far as my trading I can make money faster when it goes down. I am usually only in my trades for 5-10 minutes, sometimes a little longer. Occasionally I will hold SPY options overnight but that's as long as I hold. I do currently have 5/18 SPY 287 calls but it is a very small position. Had that for about a week now.

Yeah, if I could make $180/day every day it would be nice. Getting there. I started trading in 2013 and did decent but lost my job in 2014 and cleaned out my accounts. I just started back up again a few months ago and starting with a small account. Hoping it will be a big account next year...lol

I go long in my retirement account. I day/swing trade common shares in my regular account and also have recently gotten started in options but havnt gone as short term as you. I still have a lot to earn about options. I've found TastyTrade to be an excellent source of knowledge into options. I hope that for you and I as well! haha. Good luck this week!

 

[Ezsteps]

I wish I knew how to trade like you guys, but I don't. I have probably 92% of my portfolio with my advisor. Including the wife I have 2 Roths, 2 Traditionals, and a joint IRA. I probably have somewhere around 90% of that in Mutual Funds. I have a pension through the Operating Engineers and a Defined Contributions Plan. I only have around 10k in my Etrade that I buy stocks with. I have almost all that in SHOP. I bought SHOP in July at $92.00 pps and believe that it is a long term 5 to 10 year hold. I think they are in the right space and have the right CEO. They compare him to a Bezo. Boatman what do you look at to only stay in a trade for 5 to 10 minutes? Once you make a certain % you get out? Just curious what tells you something is going up that quick. Good Luck

 

[rh320]

I wish I knew how to trade like you guys, but I don't. I have probably 92% of my portfolio with my advisor. Including the wife I have 2 Roths, 2 Traditionals, and a joint IRA. I probably have somewhere around 90% of that in Mutual Funds. I have a pension through the Operating Engineers and a Defined Contributions Plan. I only have around 10k in my Etrade that I buy stocks with. I have almost all that in SHOP. I bought SHOP in July at $92.00 pps and believe that it is a long term 5 to 10 year hold. I think they are in the right space and have the right CEO. They compare him to a Bezo. Boatman what do you look at to only stay in a trade for 5 to 10 minutes? Once you make a certain % you get out? Just curious what tells you something is going up that quick. Good Luck

Trading is overrated if long term wealth is what your aiming for. Right now I'm just looking for income with my trading becuase it's not ever going to make me rich. I seriously doubt over a 30 year term that my trading will outperform my long term holdings. But if you know how to trade you can make good money!

I have a friend whose family has been financial advisers for generations and there motto is "it's not about timing the market, its about time in the market" and history has proven that to be true.

I havnt gotten much of a chance to look into SHOP yet. I can't speak for Boatman because I don't trade options that short term because I'm still learning options, but for myself if I'm day or swing or trading common shares I look for breakouts and breakdowns and pay attention to the RSI and MACD. So for 5-10min holds I would just watch the candlesticks on an intraday chart and jump in and out on breakouts and breakdown. You need to have a minimum 25k in any one account to trade that like though.

 

[boatman37]

I have SPY up on 1 minute, 5 minute, and 15 minute charts. I chart off the 5 minute but watch the volume on the 1 minute to look for buyers coming in. On my intraday trades I use the 10 and 20 minute EMA's (exponential moving averages) on a 5 minute chart. When they cross it's usually good for a 10% pop on the weekly options. I also use the MACD but not as much.

You definitely don't need $25k to trade like that. If you use a cash account (no margin) there are no day trade rules and options funds settle the next day. Stock is a different story. I think the new rule is 2 days for funds to settle with stock.

I had a bunch of trades today in SPY. I think 5. I think I made money on 2 and lost on 3 but the winners were bigger than the losers. I think my net today was +$120ish. If you look at today's 5 minute chart and pull up the 10 and 20 EMAs and see what happened at about 9:45. I missed that one because I was in a meeting but my general rule is to enter on the 10/20 cross on the 5 minute and get out when the price closes below the 10 for calls or above the 10 for puts. Today I would have been in April 6th puts (I think it would have been 256's maybe. Anyway, that would have been about a 75% win. I have been using a 20% stop or once I'm up 10% then my exit is the price crossing and closing on the other side of the 10 EMA.

TD Ameritrade has the Thinkorswim platform and they offer a paper trading account. I think they start you at $100,000. It has a 20 minute delay but if you call them they will set it for real time. A good way to practice.

Oh, and Tom Sosnoff created thinkorswim, he is the creator of tasty trade too.

Just watch youtube videos on moving averages and anything you can find on Steve Nison candlesticks. Start practicing with the thinkorswim practice account. It definitely isn't as easy as it sounds but can be done. The mental aspect is the hardest part. And don't go in too big. I get a little queezy if I am down more than about $200 so I figure out what my stop out is and enter based on that. I can almost promise you that if I see my account down $500 it will affect me mentally and I won't stick to my plan. That's why I only go in options trades for about $500. With a 20% stop I can only lose $100. I try for a minimum of 10% win. I have been tracking this system since early January and it's up about $1500 on only $500 entries. Doesn't sound like alot but it's $500/month and if I get a little more comfortable and go in bigger than I can make more

There is a girl that trades a little longer term that is very good named Petra Hess. She mainly trades large caps like Microsoft, Apple, etc. She only trades stock, no options. She is in our room as a spectator and has done a few webinars in our room. Very nice lady. Not sure what it costs for her room but I think it's about $2000/year. I'm not in her room but there is a group of about 5 rooms that are all part of the same community. I am in one of those. The one I am in was $2500 for the year but many make that back on their first trade and most make it back in a month or two. They share their screen and you can follow them or they teach and you can trade on your own. Most take what they teach and modify it to fit their needs or goals. There is a girl in there that started in September with $6k and last I heard was about 4-6 weeks ago she was at $70k. Not all have that kind of success but even if I can do 1/4th as good as her I will be thrilled. I just started in this room in December.

If anyone is interested in the names of those I trade with shoot me a PM. I don't want to turn this into a marketing thing or anything. I get nothing from it either but like seeing people make money so if there is anything I can do I'm glad to share the info.

Oh, and today the SPY dipped below the 200 day simple moving average. That is big. It bounced off and closed above it but if it closes below it watch out. The 200 SMA is a big deal and a failure to hold that and we are probably looking at some more red days to come in my opinion. not saying we will see a crash or anything but could see more -500 or -1000 point days ahead.