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Discussion in 'The Tiki Bar' started by Creekwood, Feb 9, 2018.
Anyone going on a shopping spree for bargains?
GE is dropping towards my buy order.
Usually I'm going the wrong direction when the market makes big moves. This time I had stop orders in before the market started tanking. I got out of all positions with very little loss.
Sitting on the sidelines Mike
I did nothing yet (meaning I rode the plunge downward), but I was defensive and holding too much cash equivalents over the past couple years. Time to deploy some capital methinks.
I’m a long term guy so I ride the waves.
Investing excess funds on a regular basis through up and down markets and not planning on taking it out until I have to and then taking it out the same way it went in.
Been doing it for about 35 years now and it’s gotten me through black Monday, the tech bubble, the 2008 debacle and several corrections along the way.
On a regular basis, regardless of where the market is as a whole, I’ll sell individual problem stuff and buy something else that I think is set to do better in the long term.
I leave timing of the markets on a broader basis to the guys who do that for a living.
I'm with you JVM. I just keep maxing out all my accounts year after year. This correction period is almost relieving in a weird way. We all knew it was coming. The market got rid of some of the fat and now it'll be back on the upswing. Slow and steady boys
Interesting graphic on CNBC this morning.
Sad for those that borrowed to invest. One feels that this sort of thing is intended to keep the regular focks poor and working.
As Jed Clampett said "Don't put all your eggs in one basket"
Falling knife. As much as I would like to buy GE, my guess is it will be split up and sold.
Every time I hear of someone doing that I cringe. A little liquid nest egg (savings account) is the absolute minimum to get you through rough waters. If everything is going great (job is solid, bills all caught up), raid half of that and do some investing! CNBC had an article out about a large chunk of the country, if they ran into a unexpected $1000 bill for whatever, would have to borrow or put that bill on a credit card due to having no savings. My concern would be these are the same people that would mortgage their houses to get in to bitcoin.
I love this site! I could talk about boats and stocks all day. We're, what, 9 years into an epic bull market now? At some point you start to wonder if what goes up ever comes back down. The market is kind of an unnerving place right now with the recent return of volatility and the uncertainty revolving around the current administration politically and economically. Looks like this thread was started after the most recent correction. I believe this bull market still has plenty of room to run. If you look back at historical decade long bull markets you'll find that there were several market corrections as it continued higher for a couple years. I think we just entered that final stage. No one knows for sure what will be the breaking point or when it will happen exactly. Myself, I'm paying attention to the high yield corporate default rate for signaling the end of this bull market. You're now starting to see some big names declare bankruptcy. And I think you will start to see bankruptcies really start to snowball with rising interest rates as companies won't be able to afford to continue rolling over unsustainable debt. But right now the default rate is very low. It's somewhere around 2% or half the historical average of 4%. I believe it generally spikes closer to 10% when you know what really starts to hit the fan. So, I'm keeping an eye on that for when to back off equities but until then I am fully invested. And if you believe in mean reversion then the market will be looking at negative returns for the next decade after the crash, which isn't the end of the world for someone of my age but could be disaterous for someone decades older. Just my $0.02!
Still sitting, still watching but getting closer to going back in. If I went in now I'd be buying back in well below my stop prices.
Gotta love a bargain.
We are in the 4th wave of the Elliot wave (I'm not an Elliot Wave expert but there are a few of them in the group I trade with). The 4th wave is always volatile. I'm more of a day trader so I don't follow longer term trends and I trade options so I can make money no matter which direction it goes. I didn't see the SPY getting as low as it did today. I was looking at the 265 or 266 level to hold but that failed to hold. Currently I'm all cash except my 401k but I did make some money today even with the falling markets.
If the Elliot Wave guys are right then the 5th wave will produce all time highs. When will the 4th wave end? Don't know but probably when the 5th wave starts...lol
Since you make money no matter which direction a stock goes, I'll assume that you trade spreads, condors, straddles etc. Right now the only options I get involved with are selling puts and that is mostly just to build positions and lower my cost basis by collecting premium. I guess you can make money no matter which way a stock goes selling premium but that would be limited to how far a stock drops if you get assigned. The premium may not be rich enough to cover that drop. I have recently become very interested in trading spreads and condors but have never done so!
I don't know much about the Elliot wave theory but it seems reasonable.
I do know we're not at the top because way too many people are fearful. The bubble wont pop until every average joe investor is going full boat at ridiculous levels in a state of euphoria while ignoring all common sense.
No spreads, condors or straddles here. I have traded spreads before but only a few times. By 'make money either way' I mean I buy calls or puts, so I can make money whether the market goes up or down. About 90% of my options trades are in the SPY. I occasionally trade other things. Currently I am in XLE calls but down quite a bit in those but it's a small position and they expire 5/20/2018. I have a second account that I trade small caps in too.
Boats, Stocks, Cars.......does it get any better.
Anyway, I'm generally a buy and hold kind of guy so I'm riding the ups and downs.
Portfolio is the kids inheritance anyway so hopefully it will be a long time investment, and between me and my wife I'm the closest to a mandatory distribution from an IRA, and that's almost 6 years down the road so no worries there either.
Ive actually done pretty well with investing in classic cars! Mainly corvettes. My last one, a 1971, I sold to a guy in Germany for an average 8% annual return. Didn't come close to touching the s&p's return over that same time period but it was certainly a much more fun investment with a pretty decent return!
The last couple years, I have been day and swing trading small caps. My overall success rate is pretty good as far more winners than losers, however, when I lose on one, I lose pretty bad! Mostly because I am too stubborn to move on if it didn't go my way and I usually end up averaging down exposing myself to more risk. Lately, I have gotten a lot better at refusing to average down on my losers but I still might not be cutting the cord and moving on from them quick enough.
As far as XLE is concerned, I have some contacts in the energy business and they're all very careful about what they say to me but the common theme is to go long energy! It will pay off sooner than later according to them.
Sorry. It's XLF, not XLE. Was in XLE last week. XLF not looking good right now but the calls expire 5/18 so have some time.
I play a little in the small cap world too, mainly penny stocks. I usually buy those at the close then sell at the open for 10% profit. Guy that runs the room I'm in started an account in December with $6500 and just hit $25,000 this week. He is starting over beginning of next week but I think he is starting with $10k this time. Just overnight holds. No options in that account, just penny stocks.
I probably have around 90% of my portfolio in mutual funds in my IRA's. I have an Etrade account that I mess around with. Currently my favorite stock is SHOP (e-commerce). Although Andrew Left of Citron is after it again. I plan to hold it for a few years. Anybody else have a favorite others can research? Good Luck out there.