Current Housing Market 2009 - Experiences?

Yes Chuck, much respect for you guys now. Tough job, specially now with this weak economy.
Keep kicking, you'll be running that 680 before you know it....can I get a ride when you do?
 
islandhopper00 said:
Doug, I'm not an expert just because I sold mine FSBO, ( I had help) but...I am a grad of the school of hard knocks now! My opinion is this, if you go the FSBO route, you will understand why the real estate folks earn their money! You can't believe the audacity of people. People will call you at every inconvient time if possible. I think they wait for supper time. They think nothing of asking you to drive hours to show the home, just to give you attitude, and point out every questionable issue with the house. I think they are vocalizing the justification for their "no ball" offer! Then there are the no shows. You inconvience yourself, (leave whatever your doing) to show the house and they never show up. You light all the candles, open the windows, turn on all the lights, put all the junk you normally live with away, and NO SHOW! So you put everything back, blow out the candles, close the windows, get your junk back out, lay down for a nap and...bing bong! ****TTTTTTT! Their late!
I think you get the idea.
Really, I don't know what your situation is, but if you can lower the price of your house to what the market will bear, it will sell it's self. There are alot of buyers out there, "WE" are waiting for ya"ll to falter and sell short. I'm sorry as hell, but......it is what it is! I dealt with it, now I'm on the other side of the fence, and let me tell you it feels Ggooooooood over here!!!!!
Click to expand...

And that's the very reason why I haven't gone that route yet! Your story sounds very familiar. It's ashame people operate like that too. I for one, do not however.

Doug
 
Thank Mike, yep it is very interesting times:grin:

Ride, heck ye, I figure with your Bahama experience you would make a great captain.:thumbsup:


islandhopper00 said:
Yes Chuck, much respect for you guys now. Tough job, specially now with this weak economy.
Keep kicking, you'll be running that 680 before you know it....can I get a ride when you do?
Click to expand...
 
chuck1 said:
Thank Mike, yep it is very interesting times:grin:

Ride, heck ye, I figure with your Bahama experience you would make a great captain.:thumbsup:
Click to expand...

Hmmmm, I guess I wouldn't have a problem running the 680...but I would definetly have to get the small boat mentality out of my head. Heck I don't even flinch when I see 4ft on the depth finder over there anymore! I'm due to knock off an outdrive...again! LOL!
 
douglee25 said:
And that's the very reason why I haven't gone that route yet! Your story sounds very familiar. It's ashame people operate like that too. I for one, do not however.

Doug
Click to expand...

We need more folks whom act like they "say" they act. Not just when people are watching. What do we call that....character! That's it. We need more people with character.
 
I bought a 4 family complex for almost half of what the seller was asking. His selling price $109.000. My bought price $55.000 in cash :smt038. 4 x $650. I'll have my money back in no time. :smt001. This is NOT a slum house. :grin:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wayne's World said:
I bought a 4 family complex for almost half of what the seller was asking. His selling price $109.000. My bought price $55.000 in cash :smt038. 4 x $650. I'll have my money back in no time. :smt001. This is NOT a slum house. :grin:
Click to expand...


What kind of cap rate are you looking at?
 
Doug,
Hope you have gotten your answers. Sorry it looks like we may have gone off topic a little bit, but is does show just how much of a buyers market it is in some place.
 
You've got to know how to hide cash. :grin:. With a rental you never make any money on the books. :thumbsup:
 
My wife is a retired realtor, and one thing she insisted on with all of her sellers was that they get rid of all the clutter and personal items in the house. Have a garage sale for the stuff you don't need, and store the personals (photos, knick-knacks, souvenirs, etc.) offsite. Even down to emptying the kitchen cabinets of half the dishes and glasses, and the closets of half the clothes, to make them seem bigger. You may have already done this, but if not, it might be worth a try....
 
tmhudson2 said:
My wife is a retired realtor, and one thing she insisted on with all of her sellers was that they get rid of all the clutter and personal items in the house. Have a garage sale for the stuff you don't need, and store the personals (photos, knick-knacks, souvenirs, etc.) offsite. Even down to emptying the kitchen cabinets of half the dishes and glasses, and the closets of half the clothes, to make them seem bigger. You may have already done this, but if not, it might be worth a try....
Click to expand...

Already done. The house is about as clutter free as I've ever known. :grin:

Doug
 
I actually spent the weekend in a car with a Realtor looking at properties in the northern part of the county and have a few observations. The properties we looked at were essentially horse farm or agriculture farm land. Some of the farms were essentially divided up into residential lots of ~10-25 acres.

One of the houses we looked at was a 15 acre place with a 40 year old house on it. The house was a disaster in that it started life as a single story 2-bedroom rancher in the 60's and is now a 4 bedroom two-story house. The added story and the entire structure was leaning is spots, leaking water, rotted, and the foundation was braced underneath from in sinking. One corner of the foundation was separated from the house by about 1". The windows were shot (single pane) and nothing in this place was salvageable. It's 20 miles from town... They were asking just under $1M... literally $400/sq foot.

In discussing the insane pricing, it appears the property had been leveraged 3 years ago to the tune of $800K. That's right... the elderly couple living here got an appraisal during the boom and got a "special loan" so they could cash out and distribute money to the kids... They also chopped a piece of the land off (3 acres) and sold it to some guy for $190K who is also trying to dump it.

So here's a piece of property that's probably worth $300K or so and they want to sell it based on what they owe which has no basis in reality...

Along this road just about every farm was "for sale" either through a Realtor or FSBO. All of them essentially in the same boat... farmers that leveraged their land up to the hilt during a time an appraiser would give them multi-million dollar figures and a willing banker to lend to them.

The reality is that the bubble prices are not nor were they ever a "realistic" price. People that either bought at that price or leveraged their house to get cash out are stuck and sitting there going "I'll wait till the housing market comes back".. However, the little devil in the details is the county started assessing taxes on this land at this higher rate and interest rates are being reset. Additionally, the ones that have horse farms are being hit as I guess the horse industry is not doing too well.

So these guys think that people that come in with a price offering ignoring the "bubble inflation" are taking advantage of them. It's absurd... The bubble ain't coming back... houses that are priced today as if the bubble didn't happen (i.e. 2003-2004 prices) are selling... The ones that think the bubble is coming back are not selling.
 
Four Suns said:
I actually spent the weekend in a car with a Realtor looking at properties in the northern part of the county and have a few observations. The properties we looked at were essentially horse farm or agriculture farm land. Some of the farms were essentially divided up into residential lots of ~10-25 acres.

One of the houses we looked at was a 15 acre place with a 40 year old house on it. The house was a disaster in that it started life as a single story 2-bedroom rancher in the 60's and is now a 4 bedroom two-story house. The added story and the entire structure was leaning is spots, leaking water, rotted, and the foundation was braced underneath from in sinking. One corner of the foundation was separated from the house by about 1". The windows were shot (single pane) and nothing in this place was salvageable. It's 20 miles from town... They were asking just under $1M... literally $400/sq foot.

In discussing the insane pricing, it appears the property had been leveraged 3 years ago to the tune of $800K. That's right... the elderly couple living here got an appraisal during the boom and got a "special loan" so they could cash out and distribute money to the kids... They also chopped a piece of the land off (3 acres) and sold it to some guy for $190K who is also trying to dump it.

So here's a piece of property that's probably worth $300K or so and they want to sell it based on what they owe which has no basis in reality...

Along this road just about every farm was "for sale" either through a Realtor or FSBO. All of them essentially in the same boat... farmers that leveraged their land up to the hilt during a time an appraiser would give them multi-million dollar figures and a willing banker to lend to them.

The reality is that the bubble prices are not nor were they ever a "realistic" price. People that either bought at that price or leveraged their house to get cash out are stuck and sitting there going "I'll wait till the housing market comes back".. However, the little devil in the details is the county started assessing taxes on this land at this higher rate and interest rates are being reset. Additionally, the ones that have horse farms are being hit as I guess the horse industry is not doing too well.

So these guys think that people that come in with a price offering ignoring the "bubble inflation" are taking advantage of them. It's absurd... The bubble ain't coming back... houses that are priced today as if the bubble didn't happen (i.e. 2003-2004 prices) are selling... The ones that think the bubble is coming back are not selling.
Click to expand...

I agree with you on your findings. I know your post wasn't targeted specifically at me, but to comment on the "ones that think the bubble is coming back are not selling".... My home isn't in that price range, and I do believe that it's priced well within reason considering the updates it has over other homes in the neighborhood. Despite that, it still hasn't moved. I've lived in this house now for almost 4 years now (Jan. 2006 moved in). I've sunk in materials alone approximately $20k - $25k max not including any personal labor. Adding this to my purchase price and after realtor fees, state fees, etc, I will have lost money in the end. Everyone always says 'buy real estate, it's your best investment'. I didn't even buy this home as an investment. I bought something I could afford with the intent that I could at least make my money back when I needed to sell. I don't even think that's possible in this market. What a shame.

Doug
 
Subject: October 20, 2009 Real Estate Report





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October 20, 2009
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The Price of Gold: Bubble or Warning?
Now that the Dow has touched 10,000, we will take a break from watching the stock market. The price of gold has been very interesting to watch as well. We saw silver prices go through the roof thirty years ago. They collapsed. We saw tech stock prices go through the roof ten years ago, they collapsed. We saw housing prices do the same thing in certain areas around the country just five years ago. Those areas collapsed. Even more recently, we saw oil prices soar and then collapse. The question is, is the price of gold a bubble waiting to collapse or is it a warning about future inflation? If one sees gold as a hedge against inflation, gold becomes a logical holding for who are worried about government deficit spending that started a few years ago and has accelerated during the depths of the recession.
As always, the purpose of this economic commentary is not to predict the future. We look at indicators of what could happen. One could say that gold is an indicator at the present time. If the price of gold collapses, then we could be in for a long and slow economic recovery without much inflationary pressures. If the price of gold continues up, that may mean our recovery is becoming more robust and inflation will be a more immediate concern. Of course, there is always the possibility that gold will ease back but not collapse. Perhaps gold will find a "happy medium" such as oil has found for most of this year. This situation could describe a recovery moving ahead with "starts and stops." Sound familiar? Not predicting, but we will always continue to surmise.
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The Markets. Rates moved up slightly in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending October 15, 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.92%, up from 4.87% the week before. The average for 15-year fixed rose slightly to 4.37%. Adjustables followed the same trend with the average for one-year adjustables rising to 4.60% and five-year adjustables increasing to 4.38%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 6.46%. Rates rose slightly over the week, but rates on 30-year fixed remained below 5 percent for the third consecutive week," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "Homeowners are taking advantage of these low rates to refinance their current balances. The outlook on economic growth in the second half of this year has improved over the past few months. At its September 22-23 monetary policy meetings, the Federal Reserve increased its forecast for real GDP growth from the last meeting in mid-August. They noted that data from the housing sector indicated that a gradual recovery in activity was under way." Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes. ​




Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages


Updated October 16, 2009​





Daily Value
Monthly Value
Oct. 15
September
6-month Treasury Security
0.15%
0.21%
1-year Treasury Security
0.36%
0.40%
3-year Treasury Security
1.50%
1.48%
5-year Treasury Security
2.41%
2.37%
10-year Treasury Security
3.49%
3.40%
12-month LIBOR
1.271% (Sept)
12-month MTA
0.632% (Sept)
11th District Cost of Funds
1.412% (Aug)
Prime Rate
3.25% (Dec)​


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Congress is considering proposals to greatly expand a soon-to-expire $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers — potentially applying it to all but the wealthiest homebuyers. Supporters say doing so would further boost home sales, stabilize housing prices and generate jobs. The credit now can be claimed by anyone buying a home who has not owned one for three years and who closes the deal by Nov. 30. Beyond extending that deadline, some lawmakers want to make the credit available to all homebuyers who meet income eligibility requirements. And some want to increase the amount of the credit from $8,000 to $15,000. Currently the first-time home buyer credit is available in full to those buying their primary residence who make $75,000 or less ($150,000 for joint filers). A partial credit is available to those making between $75,000 and $95,000 ($150,000 to $170,000 for joint filers). By the end of November, the credit will have been used by 1.8 million homebuyers, at least 355,000 of whom would not have bought a house without the tax break, according to estimates by the National Association of Realtors. Mark Zandi, chief economist of MoodysEconomy.com, favors extending the current credit until June 1, 2010, and making it available to all home buyers. "The most fundamental argument for the credit is that nothing works in the economy if housing is falling, it hurts household wealth and credit becomes tight," Zandi said. Source: CNN/Money
Economic forecasters predict that 2010 will be the first year since 2005 for housing to contribute to the growth of the U.S. economy, according to a survey released by the National Association for Business Economics. Home prices are expected to rise 2 percent next year, but forecasters don’t believe the increase in prices will discourage homebuyers. More than 80 percent of economists surveyed by the NABE think the recession is over and recovery has begun, but they expect the expansion to be slow because unemployment persists. Source: Associated Press
Part of the prevailing wisdom of the now-late-lamented housing boom was the theory that baby boomers were ready to trade in their suburban ranch houses for an urban retreat, thus saving themselves from lawn maintenance and automobiles. Now many of the condos that were built in urban centers in anticipation of that happening are sitting vacant. “Someone who grew up living in 2,500 square feet with a driveway leading up to the front door isn’t going to downsize to 850 square feet until he’s ready for assisted living," says Joel Kotkin, a scholar on urban development who wrote The City: A Global History. Do these empty buildings further doom the future of cities? Maybe not. "I wouldn’t write off a storybook ending yet," says University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith. "It just depends on how many chapters it takes to get there." Source: Orlando Sentinel​








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douglee25 said:
I agree with you on your findings. I know your post wasn't targeted specifically at me, but to comment on the "ones that think the bubble is coming back are not selling".... My home isn't in that price range, and I do believe that it's priced well within reason considering the updates it has over other homes in the neighborhood. Despite that, it still hasn't moved. I've lived in this house now for almost 4 years now (Jan. 2006 moved in). I've sunk in materials alone approximately $20k - $25k max not including any personal labor. Adding this to my purchase price and after realtor fees, state fees, etc, I will have lost money in the end. Everyone always says 'buy real estate, it's your best investment'. I didn't even buy this home as an investment. I bought something I could afford with the intent that I could at least make my money back when I needed to sell. I don't even think that's possible in this market. What a shame.

Doug
Click to expand...
I can still remember the S&L wreck of the '80's. Real estate in texas went in the tank much the same as the above descriptions. This probably saved us in this region from the trouble now being experienced in many other areas of the country. Things have slowed,but not collapsed. In the 80"s it took about 10 years for the market to come back to life.Those people with unrealistic notes .had better saved some of the money or they will be out of their property. :smt009
 
douglee25 said:
I agree with you on your findings. I know your post wasn't targeted specifically at me, but to comment on the "ones that think the bubble is coming back are not selling".... My home isn't in that price range, and I do believe that it's priced well within reason considering the updates it has over other homes in the neighborhood. Despite that, it still hasn't moved. I've lived in this house now for almost 4 years now (Jan. 2006 moved in). I've sunk in materials alone approximately $20k - $25k max not including any personal labor. Adding this to my purchase price and after realtor fees, state fees, etc, I will have lost money in the end. Everyone always says 'buy real estate, it's your best investment'. I didn't even buy this home as an investment. I bought something I could afford with the intent that I could at least make my money back when I needed to sell. I don't even think that's possible in this market. What a shame.

Doug
Click to expand...

Sorry Doug, I have to disagree with you. If your house was priced right, it would sell. I held on for almost a year thinking like you are. I just kept banging my head, and wondering what the heck. Many people told me to lower my price and it would sell, but I wouldn't hear it. What are the offers comming in at? I'd bet they are close to what the market will bear. I know when I finally had enough, and dropped my price to just above the offers. It sold. Quick! In fact I almost got a bidding war going and boy was I pulling for it. My point is, there are a bunch of people watching your home and waiting for you to give in.
Thinking about it, when I first decided to sell my house I had a realtor reccomend a price, and in hind sight she was within $3000.00 of the sold price. I got 3k more than what she reccommended. I waited for a year for that 3k though. Well heck, I did make payments on the house all year long also.
 
islandhopper00 said:
Sorry Doug, I have to disagree with you. If your house was priced right, it would sell. I held on for almost a year thinking like you are. I just kept banging my head, and wondering what the heck. Many people told me to lower my price and it would sell, but I wouldn't hear it. What are the offers comming in at? I'd bet they are close to what the market will bear. I know when I finally had enough, and dropped my price to just above the offers. It sold. Quick! In fact I almost got a bidding war going and boy was I pulling for it. My point is, there are a bunch of people watching your home and waiting for you to give in.
Thinking about it, when I first decided to sell my house I had a realtor reccomend a price, and in hind sight she was within $3000.00 of the sold price. I got 3k more than what she reccommended. I waited for a year for that 3k though. Well heck, I did make payments on the house all year long also.
Click to expand...

The first offer I received was within 7% of asking. He came up to 5% and then disappeared when I agreed to the price.

Doug
 
islandhopper00 said:
...I waited for a year for that 3k though. Well heck, I did make payments on the house all year long also.
Click to expand...

Not giving you a hard time Mike but, have you figured out how much that 3K cost you? :grin:

How much of those 12 payments went to interest.
How much was your taxes.
How much was your insurance.
How much was your maintenance?
etc, etc, etc.

99% of the time you would have been better off selling then waiting a year to get that extra X number of dollars.:huh:
 
chuck1 said:
Not giving you a hard time Mike but, have you figured out how much that 3K cost you? :grin:

How much of those 12 payments went to interest.
How much was your taxes.
How much was your insurance.
How much was your maintenance?
etc, etc, etc.

99% of the time you would have been better off selling then waiting a year to get that extra X number of dollars.:huh:
Click to expand...

Yes I do, and that is why I'm trying to advise Doug as tactful as I can. I realize how fragile his feelings are. (If he is anything like me.) It hurts physically to, not just mentally. I had to learn the hard way, to listen to the pros. I hope it will make me a better man in the long run, somehow.
Chuck, their are so many people doing/making the same bad decision making. I blame it on....Obama. He's the one giving the hopes and dreams speach!
I am watching a couple of houses at this point, (I have become what I lothed) and in speaking to a few of the agents, under their breaths, they tell me how the home owners won't budge, and consequently they don't sell. Now I know they may not have the cash flow necessery to be able to lower their price, but I'm not bailing them out. I have to look out for my bottom line also. Plus the banks just won't loan on a risky asset right now. 20% down 797 credit score and I'm still worried I could be turned down.
2010 is headed for a bad year as I see it. I should really wait it out to make sure I don't get stuck again. That's the mentality I hear from buying folks around me. In fact I have run into other lookers/buyers looking at some houses and they have asked me if was going to buy now. Sure I said, if I find that great deal!
 
What really hurts me is when I see a place priced that I know there is no way in hexx it is going to sell for. Some of them I know the seller has to sell. When they finally come to me about listing the place at the right price it is too late and I've seen a couple places lost to foreclosure.

I asked them how they came up with the old listing price. I hear that is what other places are listed at or they thought their home was worth it. What really burns me is when I ask about a CMA the just look at me like a deer in the headlights. The other agent just took the listing at what ever price the seller said they had to have. They never did a CMA for the seller.




islandhopper00 said:
Yes I do, and that is why I'm trying to advise Doug as tactful as I can. I realize how fragile his feelings are. (If he is anything like me.) It hurts physically to, not just mentally. I had to learn the hard way, to listen to the pros. I hope it will make me a better man in the long run, somehow.
Click to expand...
 
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