Tropical Storm Ian Prediction as of 0200 EDT.

I like to check the various models which underpin the official forecasts. Here's the latest:

09L_tracks_latest.png

Some storms' models are very tightly grouped even pretty far out but this one is all over the place. I've noticed that NHC tends to roughly use the center of the model outputs for its official forecast track. But, when the models begin to shift in one direction or the other, it will only slowly move the forecast in the new "consensus" direction.
Googling "spaghetti model" will yield a number of places to find this and similar displays. I like to consult this rather obscure site from a small coastal town in NC that posts a number of products. They include a version of the models display with the verbiage of the forecaster's discussion that I like:
Tropical Storm Ian Forecaster's Discussion & Computer Models
 
Gofirstclass said:
When it hits in force, how about sharing some pics with us.
Click to expand...

This is a storm that a person does not want to ride out on the boat. I hope to be able to watch on cameras as long as possible, but doubt the cameras stay operational.

I did hear on the news that Weather Channel had decided to have their onsite coverage (Jim Cantore (sp)) based near out boat. They seem to like having a parking garage that they take shelter in when the worst comes in. There is a relatively new parking garage across the street from us, imagine that will be their command post. Not a good feeling.
 
Key west is boarding up and sand bagging shop doors….. Erie feeling walking up duval this morning

DBDB9E61-D24B-4DBE-9B43-F9CAE8DAA151.jpeg
 
All you CSR'ers in the SE corner of the country be safe. I went through Cat 5 Camille in the 60's in Biloxi, MS, right on the Gulf Coast. They aren't anything to take for granted.
 
KW is going to see the brunt of it. If you are visiting - get off the islands. Don't be a liability for others. They will close down the bridges, the roads will be flooded, bugs, trash everywhere, and hot and muggy. The businesses will be boarded up and if evac called there will be no emergency services. Not something to take a family or wife through.

Oh, and if you are going to delay making your way off the islands you are doomed to be in traffic for a full day. If you are traveling by boat get to Card Sound and Biscayne bay.
 
Gofirstclass said:
All you CSR'ers in the SE corner of the country be safe. I went through Cat 5 Camille in the 60's in Biloxi, MS, right on the Gulf Coast. They aren't anything to take for granted.
Click to expand...

Was that Camille? When I lived in south Louisiana years later I remember a lady telling a story about her father which had a Hatteras. It had survived the storm and was pressed into service afterwards. They would go up into the rivers and canals and would stack bodies on the bow to bring them back out.
 
Here's the Crown Weather 11:00 EDT Update


Ian Has Become A Hurricane With Rapid Strengthening Expected Through Tuesday; Ian Is Expected To Be A Major Hurricane When It Rakes The Entire West Coast Of Florida Wednesday Through Thursday
Posted on Monday, September 26, 2022 11:06 am
Hurricane Ian:
11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 19.1 North Latitude, 82.7 West Longitude or about 240 miles to the southeast of the Western Tip Of Cuba.
Maximum Winds: 80 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 Millibars or 28.94 Inches.
Forward Movement: Northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph.

Satellite imagery and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian became organized extremely quickly last night. Given the falling barometric pressures and increasing winds found by reconnaissance aircraft, it has been deemed that Ian is now a hurricane. Additionally, satellite imagery indicates that Ian has taken on the shrimp look on infrared imagery. A majority of the time when we see a shrimp shape like we’re seeing now, it means that very rapid strengthening is about to commence.

Reports of reconnaissance aircraft indications that the central barometric pressure within Ian is falling at a rate of almost 2 millibars per hour. At this rate, it’s possible that the hurricane will be at major hurricane strength by this evening and may very well be at least a Category 4 hurricane by Tuesday morning, if not sooner.

This means that it is extremely likely that Ian will be a major Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane by the time it begins crawling up the west coast of Florida beginning on Wednesday.

This forecast of rapid strengthening is supported by the intensity guidance, which shows a 90 percent chance of Ian strengthening to at least an 115 mph hurricane in just 24 hours from now. The intensity guidance also forecasts about a 60 percent chance for Ian to strengthen to at least a 130 mph hurricane during that same time period (by or before Tuesday morning).

Bottom line is that it looks extremely likely that Ian will be at least a Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane by Tuesday.

Ian is now moving on a general northwestward track and a turn to the north is likely by Tuesday as the hurricane is guided around the western side of a ridge of high pressure. The forecast uncertainty increases significantly by Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level trough of low pressure pushes into the eastern United States and possibly try to lift out as we get into late week. This will do two things – One is that it’ll cause Ian to turn more to the northeast and guide the hurricane towards the west coast of Florida. Second thing it’ll do is possibly cause Ian to slow way down in forward speed by the time it reaches the west coast of Florida. This could lead to a very prolonged period of storm surge issues along the west coast of Florida, prolonged amounts of heavy rain across much of the Florida Peninsula and prolonged tropical storm to hurricane force winds.

There are significant differences in the guidance as to where exactly the center of Ian may cross the coast of western Florida. While the GFS model has been shifting steadily eastward with the forecast track of Ian, the most recent European model forecast has trended back to the west with its forecast track of Ian & now shows the hurricane still sitting just off of the west coast of Florida to the west-southwest of Cedar Key by Thursday as a major hurricane.

A look at the hurricane track model consensus reveals that it’s been pretty steady in its forecast track and now shows a track that has Ian hugging the coast from about Tampa on Thursday morning northward to just east of Cedar Key on Friday morning. This would be an extremely slow forward motion that would lead to significant to very major damage, especially with storm surge all along the entire west coast of Florida from Wednesday to Friday.

Here Are My Latest Thoughts On Where I Think Ian May Make Landfall Along The West Coast Of Florida:

My latest thoughts in terms of track and intensity of Ian is as follows:

– Wednesday Morning: Passes about 100 miles due west of Naples as a 140 to 145 mph hurricane.

– Wednesday Evening: Passes about 50 miles due west of Sarasota as a 130 to 145 mph hurricane. Also begins to slow down in forward speed.

– Thursday Morning: Passes about 25 miles due west of Tampa as a 120 to 130 mph hurricane.

– Midnight Thursday Night: Passes about 15-20 miles due west of Crystal River as a 100 to 110 mph hurricane.

– Friday Morning: Makes landfall around Cedar Key as a 80 to 90 mph hurricane.

My forecast then calls for Ian to track north-northeastward and pass right over Gainesville as about a 55-70 mph tropical storm sometime Friday afternoon and then move into southern Georgia near Valdosta as a 50 mph tropical storm by Friday night.

Even though I have laid out my forecast track based on what I’m seeing in the data, I want to once again emphasize that a track like this that parallels the west coast of Florida is extremely difficult to pin down as small changes in the storm’s heading will lead to big differences in where the center crosses the west coast of Florida. Because of this, a track as far south as a Fort Myers to Cape Canaveral route is quite possible.

Not only that, but if Ian does make landfall further south along the west coast of Florida, say from Tampa to Fort Myers, it’ll come in as a much stronger hurricane (in the range of 120 to 140 mph maximum winds) than if it tracks towards the Cedar Key region where the wind shear amounts will be on the increase.

Forecast Impacts:

Storm Surge:
AL092022_peak_surge.png


Wind:
al092022wind.png


Rainfall:
AL0922WPCQPF.gif


Some Of My Other Additional Thoughts:

Preparations: Full hurricane preparations should be well underway along the entire west coast of Florida, as well as inland from the coast eastward to at least the Orlando metro. In fact, tropical storm force winds are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula between Wednesday and Friday.. These preparations include making sure you have extra amounts of food, water, medications, batteries, pet food (DON”T forget about your pets!) . Make sure all of your electronic devices are charged up. Fuel up both your vehicle and your generator. If you are using a generator after the hurricane, be sure to keep them outdoors and away from windows. You should have all of your hurricane preparations completed by Tuesday evening.

Evacuation Orders: Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders are now going into place across many areas along the west coast of Florida where a very high storm surge is anticipated. If you are able to, please make every attempt to evacuate! This is truly a case where you are going to want to run from the water as upwards of a 10 foot storm surge (and maybe more in some spots) are expected. I have posted a couple of surge forecast maps for the west coast of Florida, given what we’re expected in terms of the track and strength of Ian.

al092022surge.png


al092022surge2.png


If you aren’t able to evacuate or do not have the means to do so, please make sure you have a way to get up onto your roof if you need to. Have a sturdy ax in your supply kit, in case you need to chop your way out of your home onto your roof.

Other Impact Thoughts: Tropical storm force winds are expected across about 90 percent of the Florida Peninsula with hurricane conditions expected across the western half of the Florida Peninsula from Wednesday to Friday. In addition to this, the tornado threat is going to be significant. The rainfall flood threat is also going to be very high with rain totals of 6 to 12 inches likely across the entire Florida Peninsula. River flooding and urban flooding are very likely.

Timing: The weather conditions are expected to begin going downhill in a hurry by Wednesday morning with the worst part of this storm expected from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night and Thursday. The weather conditions will slowly improve from south to north across the Florida Peninsula on Friday with the worst of the weather pushing into Georgia and South Carolina in the form of tropical storm force winds, excessive rainfall and a threat for tornadoes.

AL092022_5day_cone_with_line.png


al092022wind.png


Model Track Forecast:
storm_09.gif


Satellite Imagery:
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The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

Copyright © 2022 Crown Weather Services


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Just heard, mandatory evacuation for the Clearwater Beach area starts in the morning. Causeway is being shut down. Another hour or two we will have everything done that we can do.
 
I don't know if you guys frequent Reddit but there has been some fascinating discussion over on the Tampa and Sarasota locals pages over the past few days.

It ranges from "if I had a dime for every extreme forecast that didn't come true" all the way to "the world is ending, we're not set up for flooding like this, this is end times".

Fascinating stuff...
 
highslice said:
Looks like you'll get 6-10 inches of rain and a 2'-4' storm surge. I'd get out, but that's just me.
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I was just talking to the captain of the latitudes ferry…. We just came over for lunch. He said 2.1’ surge

we are in a condo with steel curtains ….. we have tons of food….. complex has a few generators.

the overall feeling here is pretty laid back…. Be prepared but no mass exodus
 
Blueone said:
I was just talking to the captain of the latitudes ferry…. We just came over for lunch. He said 2.1’ surge

we are in a condo with steel curtains ….. we have tons of food….. complex has a few generators.

the overall feeling here is pretty laid back…. Be prepared but no mass exodus
Click to expand...
Good luck! If nothing else, have a hell of a storm party.
 
Over at latitudes…. They are tying all the lanterns and fans down

70F3EDBB-927A-4E15-98B4-CD1636A60F6C.jpeg
F5A3B80B-C30E-40AF-89AC-B5AA3ED2B5D7.jpeg
 
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