What to do with the nest eggs

Carpediem44DB

Well-Known Member
Aug 18, 2015
3,230
Sanfransico Bay area
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2000 Carver 506
2006 44 DB Sedan Bridge
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Late last year I had a bad feeling that the economy along with the market will be pulling back significantly so I called my Schwab investment advisor to see what we can do to prepare to best protect the capital at the expense of giving up some earning potential.
He basically said that the way we are invested and allocated in the market and financial products, stocks, bonds ect that we should just ride it out and have faith in the concepts that have worked for the last 100 years. He said also that Schwab does not see a significant crash coming because all of the indicators showed strong growth and that the cyclical crash would likely not come soon since we just recovered from the Covid crash. Now here we are 4 months later and we have lost about 10 percent of our equity. Granted in total we are doing better than the aggregate market but 10 percent is a lot of money to make back up before any future growth.
When I asked about the wisdom of going to cash for a while he just said that trying to time the market is a fools errand. I will be working for at least another five years and so will the wife so we won’t need to retirement money until then so we can weather the storm.
What have you guys done lately? I’m not talking about the guys who day trade but more to the guys like most folks that have their investments managed by fiduciaries in traditional 401k and IRA accounts.
CD
 
I went cash 2 months ago.. everything. I didn’t ask.. just did it. my adviser just said I don’t blame you. So far it has worked. Now just need to decide when to get back in.
 
wished I would have went to all cash, oh well .:(
 
I invest with a long term view and try not to overreact. People are only correct in predicting the market in hindsight. And for every winner there is a loser. Someone is buying when you are selling and vice versa.
 
I invest with a long term view and try not to overreact. People are only correct in predicting the market in hindsight. And for every winner there is a loser. Someone is buying when you are selling and vice versa.
This is my thought basically as well. I totally get the going to cash thing but deciding when to get back in is the question. If I actively managed my own investments, which sometimes I wish I had the aptitude for, I would have sold and waited it out.
 
It’s not about cash or no cash but how you’re allocated. As you get closer and closer to retirement you want less and less money “at risk.” What I did, when the Covid decline happened, I capitulated thinking I would need a couple years of expenses on cash. I sold a bunch of stuff I was no longer interested in and half of my 401k. But I left the weekly contribution 100% stocks. SoI held what gains I had left and the dollar cost averaged into the market as it recovered.

As for now, I’m holding tight as this will be an “ordinary” recession and I have time before I need the money. But I do have very large cash positions being eaten by inflation.
 
@Carpediem44DB I'm with Northwestern Mutual, and 4 years from retirement based on the current plan. My advisor tells me to stay the course through all of these ups and downs, every single time the market hiccups. I don't have the desire or skill to manage my own portfolio, I'm paying him for the professional advice, so I follow it.

I'm sure there will be lots of people here who will tell you about all the times that they made really smart investment decisions. If you went to cash on Feb 14th, 2020 you were a genius. If you went to cash on March 20, 2020, you were an idiot. If you stayed the course and watched the market bottom out, you were back whole in 6 months, but NOBODY could have told you in advance what was going to happen.

There are probably some people here with the skill set to time the market, but you are paying someone who does this all day every day. If you don't trust the guy you are paying for advice, maybe it's time to find someone you trust.
 
I am retiring Sept 30th. No pension. Have to live on what I have accumulated. Mathematically and logically it won’t be a problem but it is unnerving a bit. I try not to watch the market too much. And I try not to play it or time it.
 
I thought this was a post about bird eggs, seriously, that's what I thought.

I've lost about 10% as well. Yesterday was very difficult to watch. My advisor says the same as yours, stay the course. Honestly, if you think about it, what else can they say. *Sorry, we effed up..."

I have about a third of my retirement with an advisor. The other third is in 401k, and the other third I manage myself. The one I manage myself has done better than the others. Not bragging, I'm not a pro at this, does makes me wonder.

I paid cash for the 380 I just purchased. That was a tough pill to swallow. Sometimes I still feel a little anxious about it.

I do think this is a buying opportunity, and I added some more to my self managed portfolio yesterday.

My advisor regularly tells me I still have a 99.9% of living the retirement we initially set up, probably even better. That's nice to hear, but I still worry.
 
@Carpediem44DB I'm with Northwestern Mutual, and 4 years from retirement based on the current plan. My advisor tells me to stay the course through all of these ups and downs, every single time the market hiccups. I don't have the desire or skill to manage my own portfolio, I'm paying him for the professional advice, so I follow it.

I'm sure there will be lots of people here who will tell you about all the times that they made really smart investment decisions. If you went to cash on Feb 14th, 2020 you were a genius. If you went to cash on March 20, 2020, you were an idiot. If you stayed the course and watched the market bottom out, you were back whole in 6 months, but NOBODY could have told you in advance what was going to happen.

There are probably some people here with the skill set to time the market, but you are paying someone who does this all day every day. If you don't trust the guy you are paying for advice, maybe it's time to find someone you trust.
Well said, spot on.
 
We are close to a pretty critical level right now. Low Friday on the /ES futures was 4118.75. Back on the week of 2/21 we had a pivot low of 4108.75. If we break that then I see more downside. We may break it briefly then pop back up but if we break and fail to reverse back up then I see more selling. There will be stops set at that level and if it is broken those stops will automatically sell. The next pivot low would be 4051 from back on the week of 5/10/2020. Not saying we would hit that level but that would be the magnet trying to pull to that level.

It will be interesting but there are so many factors going against the economy right now that nothing will surprise me.

Not advice but just what I see on the chart.
 
Our occupations had no pensions so we had to create our own with 401k's. Always fairly conservative while working and never borrowed or cashed any. It's now in the hands of Merrill Lynch. Some is in annuities, but most in conservative mutual funds. Yep, it's taken a hit this year but not enough to panic. Zero debt to "worry" about. Just riding it out.
 
A couple of years ago we moved our 401k to a different Raymond James office in our town.
A young guy (30s) left the office we were with along with another veteran of the business and they started their own office. They are both fiduciaries.
Basically we went with them. They didn’t have to ask.
I moved my personal portfolio in December of ‘20.
I’m stubborn to a fault and refuse to invest in funds with my personal portfolio. I don’t trust the concept of having someone get paid for every trade whether they make money or lose it.
I asked my guy to make a list of companies that got hit hard by Covid but were financially solvent (good debt to asset ratio after they took the initial hit). So we looked at airlines, hotel / casino, and cruise lines. We spread about half of my investments over all that applied and the other half over companies with safe long term growth. Stuff like fast food companies.
We also bought some Caterpillar.
I was investing with a 10 year goal but we made 16% in the first 2 months.
Of course that’s has fallen back a little with recent conditions but I’m still a little ahead since the initial investment.
Where I totally screwed up is automation.
We use a ton of Allen Bradley equipment in our business. Rockwell Automation being the parent company. We recently looked back and they bottomed out right in line with the initial Covid outbreak and have been on a run ever since (at least up until a couple months ago).
So I missed out on that and stupid on my part for not thinking to look at it sooner.
I also bought some Rivian the day it went public. I got spanked on that one but stayed in believing that in the next ten years I’ll be glad I did. In hindsight I should’ve waited until now to get a piece of that one. But hey hindsight is 20/20.
That’s my story, hope it’s helpful to someone.
 
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My mom lives off her social security check each month, they didn't save a dime. I'm the youngest of four, none of my siblings have planned for retirement. The oldest, my brother, just won the lottery, it's called marrying a rich woman at 63 years old. I don't think he had $200 saved at that point. He recently called me to get advice on purchasing stocks. I shook my head.
 
We're down about 10% YTD as well, but staying the course. Its been a roller coaster this year for sure. We are both actively working and about 10 years out from retirement. Money professionally managed. I've asked the same question and gotten a similar answer...stay the course.

I wouldn't want to have to retire right now though, and if your time horizon is short, it might be a problem in the short term.
 
On this topic. For those of you with professionally managed investments, are you willing to share the % fee? On mine it’s is 0.85% on the non-cash equivalent balances. I am debating moving to a transaction bases account given my lack of transaction churn.
 
Only reading the title and given the time of year up here, I thought you meant geese eggs in nests on your boat lol
 

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