What a positive COVID-19 test REALLY means

I respectfully disagree.

The opening in Florida started first week in May. For the entire month there was no spike.

i think we have to remember there always will be a delay and the numbers we see today are the infections which happened 2-3 weeks ago .

the incubation time is several days , then some more days it gets worse enough you visit a doctor . then testing and waiting for results , then reporting until it gets published .

the numbers published today does not represent how many people got infected today
 
There is no diagnostic test that determines when one became infected.

COVID-19 has a two week incubation period. This aligns perfectly w Memorial Day to first sign of spikes.

Spikes are virtually meaningless stat.
 
So a little fact, I heard, about testing numbers. It seems that when one is confirmed with the COVID-19 virus they are then tested several times during the period they are recovering until they are clear of the virus. Question is, are each of these positive tests part of the count that are reported every night on the news or are only new CASES actually being counted. Given the political narrative would it surprise anyone that this is the case. Same reason why so many deaths are counted as Covid related when it was clearly not Covid that actually ended the life. Unfortunately we can not trust the mas media to provide the truth one way or the other. Id you are conservative you might believe what Hannity is screeching and if your a lib you believe what Cuomo is spewing. I'm really beginning to just think F it, it is what it is, turn off the TV keep my head down in my bilge. Ignorance is bliss.
Carpe Diem
 
The vaccine creates the herd immunity.

I made that same point in the post you quote. And that post was written in rebuttal to MM’s position a vaccine would not be needed. His position was that a herd immunity based solely on surviving the disease would be enough. There are two flaws to that argument:

70% - 75% of the population would have to be infected and survive with lifetime antibody protection to attain herd immunity. Here’s a discussion on herd immunity posted by the Mayo Clinic.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

The first flaw in the argument is that herd immunity by survivorship only could well take years. Currently the confirmed number of cases sits at what? 2.5 million? That’s less than 1% of the of the US population (0.75% roughly). To attain 70% survivorship, 231,000,000 people would have to sick and recover, or roughly a 100 fold increase in infections, and potentially 100 fold increase in hospitalizations, and potentially 100 times the 130,000 deaths to date. Herd immunity by survivorship is not going to come soon, and not without extraordinary cost in lives, resources and impact to the economy.

And even with a vaccine it would take fewer years, but years none the less, to vaccinate enough people to create herd immunity.

The second flaw is that life long immunity after recovery, while common with other virus diseases, is at this point a wishlist item. Any proof that this is the case is based on anecdotal information.

My conclusion is this disease and it’s impact on our lives and society is going to be with us for a long time, and will require every possible tool.
 
It may be the cynic in me but I think that if the Dems somehow manage to win the White House and a majority in the House, Covid will miraculously fade into history, nothing to see here folks, move along.
It would mean life in the US will change forever and we can all say good bye to the fruit of our life long efforts but it was a good run.
 
It may be the cynic in me but I think that if the Dems somehow manage to win the White House and a majority in the House, Covid will miraculously fade into history, nothing to see here folks, move along.
It would mean life in the US will change forever and we can all say good bye to the fruit of our life long efforts but it was a good run.

That’s not gonna happen my friends.
 
It may be the cynic in me but I think that if the Dems somehow manage to win the White House and a majority in the House, Covid will miraculously fade into history, nothing to see here folks, move along.
It would mean life in the US will change forever and we can all say good bye to the fruit of our life long efforts but it was a good run.
I think you found the cure to covid. :)
 
That’s not gonna happen my friends.

Never say never, and never assume anything.

America has a voter apathy problem and it's huge. The typical presidential election year only sees between 50 to 60% voter turn out, which means 40% of eligible voters are simply to lazy to bother with voting and are OK letting others pick their government for them.

A small change in the voter turnout, even if it's 2 to 3%, can change everything in either direction.
 
Given the enthusiasm for Biden, yes, agreed.

But the thu for Trump is a whole different thing.

I expect a win by a larger margin than 2016. This is Biden we’re talking about. Yawn.
 
It may be the cynic in me but I think that if the Dems somehow manage to win the White House and a majority in the House, Covid will miraculously fade into history, nothing to see here folks, move along.
It would mean life in the US will change forever and we can all say good bye to the fruit of our life long efforts but it was a good run.
Now that’s the first thing I’ve heard that makes sense. Or even if they don’t win it will be interesting to see what else they blame on Trump
 
When was the last time we did such widespread testing for a virus? I would hazard that a significant number of the positive tests are people who were never going to show symptoms. Just like any flu season, there are likely many many times more people who may be affected, but remain asymptomatic and go on with their life. There are those who treat it like a bad cold, lie down, have some chicken soup and recover. And yes, there are years when 10's of thousands die....
My take on this whole situation is we are being whipped into a frenzy over this virus. Hospitalizations and deaths are decreasing despite the "spike" in positive testing. Without the testing, we would be well on our way back to normal. 130,000 dead (probably inflated) out of a population of 327,000,000 is sad, but not devastating. In the end, we need to stop living in fear. You are probably not going to get the virus. If you do, you are probably not going to get sick. If on the off chance you do get sick, you will probably not be hospitalized. If you do get hospitalized, you are probably not going to die. If the media were honest, the whole story needs to be reported. If you get the virus, you have better than a 95% chance of surviving, even better if you are younger and healthier. I like the numbers, I don't like what we have done to the country out of fear..
 
If the Dem's win this election it is 100% on Trumps back. He will blame COVID, the Dems, the whole world being unfair to him, the fake media - wah wah wah. But he needs to look in the mirror. I don't know what alternative Republican president could have done better, but I suspect if you look back at the slate you will see the reason. If the Dems win, I hope the GOP grows back its spine, puts all the blame where it should be, gives Trump his legacy of being the worst President the US has seen in years, and gets back to policies that are consistent with Right Wing fundamentals and works to unify the country instead of dividing it. If the left's win the Presidency, it is because of Trump's actions. Nothing else.
 
If the Dem's win this election it is 100% on Trumps back. He will blame COVID, the Dems, the whole world being unfair to him, the fake media - wah wah wah. But he needs to look in the mirror.

96% negative coverage from the TV main news sources. Sure that's fair. We needed a fighter! Being a nice guy does not cut it for conservatives today. I voted for a sterr fighter to go to DC ans shake it up. Good so far, hope he can continue to fight. Best President in my life!

I don't know what alternative Republican president could have done better, but I suspect if you look back at the slate you will see the reason.

The anointed one was Jeb Bush, not a single candidate could have gone toe to toe with HRC and won.

If the Dems win, I hope the GOP grows back its spine, puts all the blame where it should be,

They have been selling out conservatives, only to come and ask for votes every election, that changed with Trump...

gives Trump his legacy of being the worst President the US has seen in years,

Then you are not a conservative in my definition. Trump has met more conservative goals than any Republican in my lifetime.

and gets back to policies that are consistent with Right Wing fundamentals and

Dream on...

works to unify the country instead of dividing it.

Who is dividing the country? Those wanting to change history and our whole way of life, or those that want top conserve our way of life?

If the left's win the Presidency, it is because of Trump's actions. Nothing else.

It will be that the Chinese and Russians have sown enough discord that combined with the left, media, and social media conservatives could not overcome it...

So much wrong here. See above in RED...
 
So much wrong here. See above in RED...
Some people just buy the whole Democrat playbook hook, line and sinker. As long as I have been around, they make the same plays. Regan -- dumb, out of touch, racist, divisive. Bush 1 -- dumb, out of touch, divisive, clueless. Bush 2 -- racist, stupid, divisive, etc. Trump -- racist, dumb, divisive, blah, blah, blah. They need some new plays.

The difference between Trump and past Republicrats is he isn't afraid. Most Republicrats are just scarred wheenies. We have a raging culture war and they are hiding under the beds crying to their mommies.
 
I am seeing a lot of moderates turn against the dems and BLM. Folks who would previously go along with the oppressed agenda so as not to seem insensitive are sick of what is going on.
 
I am seeing a lot of moderates turn against the dems and BLM. Folks who would previously go along with the oppressed agenda so as not to seem insensitive are sick of what is going on.

Finally. I hope this backfires on these Marxists.
 
So, back to the subject of the thread. It seems now that with this contract tracing concept we now have an even more egregious way to exaggerate the positive case numbers. We just watched a post made by a doctor who has a few patients that have tested positive for the virus. Since he has contact with these patients he was told that he needs to be polled daily to answer several questions about possible symptoms that he may have. He told this entity basically to screw off and call him in two weeks as he was not going to subject himself self to this ridiculous telephone interview each day. He then asked a very pointed and most IMPORTANT question. "suppose I answer yes to a question such as have you had a runny nose or scratchy throat since the last interview? will I be counted as a positive Covid case for the purposes of this contact tracing program? TO HIS AMAZMENT, THE ANSWER WAS YES!!!!! What a fricking hoax! If the doctor is honest and happened to have cleaned out his attic the day before and got a nose full of dust that triggered a histamine attack his nose would run a bit but in todays world he would be counted as a Covid positive contact. If any body still thinks that our government is capable of handling this crisis in a logical way, I've got a great deal on some ocean front property in Montana I'd love to show you!
CD
 
I have been saying the same as most of you, but I don’t think folks are faking ICU level sicknesses!:

At least 56 intensive care units in Florida hospitals reached capacity on Tuesday, state officials said. Another 35 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, according to the Agency for Health Care Administration in that state.
 
I have been saying the same as most of you, but I don’t think folks are faking ICU level sicknesses!:

At least 56 intensive care units in Florida hospitals reached capacity on Tuesday, state officials said. Another 35 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, according to the Agency for Health Care Administration in that state.

It’s not uncommon for hospitals to run 90% on ICU levels routinely.

We had the top four CEO’s of hospitals here (Houston) explain this. They also explained that if needed they could increase capacity of ICU depending on demand.

The other telling number are the hospitalizations due to Covid, or hospitalizations with Covid.

Here in Texas it’s been noted that actual hospitalizations due to Covid are only running about 15%. It’s also been noted that hospitalizations have decreased in time spent due to Covid, and recovery has been much quicker.

It’s also been noted that routine hospitalizations are up due to the lock downs where elective hospitalization were banned.

Until these state health departments stop playing political games with how they are counting “cases” no one will get an accurate look at the real numbers.
 

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